CHAVEZ ELECTORAL MACHINE KICKS INTO HIGH GEAR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 002226

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

USSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
DEPT PASS TO AID/OTI RPORTER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/29/2022
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL VE
SUBJECT: CHAVEZ ELECTORAL MACHINE KICKS INTO HIGH GEAR

REF: A. CARACAS 2195


B. CARACAS 2208

C. CARACAS 2201

D. IRR 6 902 0046 08

CARACAS 00002226 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Daniel Lawton, Acting Political Counselor,
Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: President Chavez' government and the "Yes"
campaign are increasingly one and the same in the run-up to
the December 2 referendum on Chavez' proposed, sweeping
changes to the constitution. The Bolivarian Republic of
Venezuela (BRV) is injecting significant personnel and
resources into the "Yes" campaign to ensure a large
pro-government turn-out. It is also framing the December 2
constitutional referendum as a vote for the domestically
popular Chavez and his "socialist revolution" while trying to
discredit reform opponents as "coup-mongers". Although the
"No" campaign has made some inroads in recent days, Chavez'
"Yes" campaign still has far more resources, people, and
means to influence and deliver voters to the polls. End
Summary.

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Government = Campaign
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2. (SBU) President Chavez tapped senior government officials
to lead his United Socialist Party of Venezuela's (PSUV's)
"Yes" campaign in October. This "Zamora Command", named for
19th century Venezuelan land reform proponent and general
Ezequial Zamora, directs the efforts of similar state and
local "Yes" campaign committees. These local efforts are, in
turn, largely led by pro-Chavez state and local officials.
Vice President Jorge Rodriguez heads the national Zamora
Command with the help of the Foreign Minister, Information
Minister, a State Governor and the President of the Chavez
created Telesur TV network in addition to a number of vice
ministers and National Assembly deputies. Rodriguez claimed
on November 19 that 5,600 "Yes" campaign events had been
conducted since November 2.


3. (C) Various central government ministries are using
personnel and resources to get out the "Yes" vote.
Government employees told us that they are expected to
participate in "Yes" marches or risk losing their jobs. The
BRV is also putting pressure on government employees (over
two million voters) to vote "Yes" or risk losing their jobs,
according to leaders of the pro-Chavez Patria Para Todos
(PPT) party. Government ministries are also directly
involved in organizing pro-reform workshops and forums. For
example, the Ministry of Light Industry and Commerce
organized almost 1400 forums during a recent 12-day period
covering the entire country. The Ministry of Culture is
paying for print ads that explain how Article 87 of the
proposed reform will benefit artisans and promise a census of
cultural laborers to include them in the social security
system.


4. (C) According to DAO contacts, the armed forces also
appear to be subject to political pressure. In direct
violation of Article 328 of the Venezuela Constitution,
Venezuelan military personnel were coerced by government
representatives into participating in pro-government marches
with threat to remove them from their assignments or from
military service altogether if they did not. Red T-shirts
and hats were distributed throughout military units a day or
two prior to government demonstrations and personnel were
required to sign a list that sufficed as proof of
participation. Payment for participating in the marches was
automatically deposited into personnel payrolls and was
indicated simply as a 'bono' ('bonus' in Spanish) on paystubs
(Ref D).

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Milk in Every Refrigerator
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5. (C) The BRV also appears to be replenishing subsidized
food stocks in its government-run MERCAL supermarkets and
holding a large number of open air "Mega-MERCALs" in an
effort to alleviate growing popular frustration with
shortages of basic foodstuffs. The BRV gave away free milk
at the MERCAL stores during the weekend of November 17; milk
is a particularly scarce commodity of late due to unrealistic
price controls and increased demand. The December 2 vote
also falls conveniently around the time that most Venezuelans

CARACAS 00002226 002.2 OF 002


receive their Christmas bonuses, usually one to three months
salary.

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Government Air Time
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6. (SBU) Government-run media outlets are also providing the
"Yes" camp plenty of free air time. Chavez is making liberal
use of mandatory "cadena" broadcasts on all free-to-air TV
and radio airwaves (approximately 36 minutes of airtime per
day). In addition, government networks covered Chavez'
lengthy speech to "Yes" campaign workers live the night of
November 22 and will almost certainly continue to air similar
"Yes" campaign events. Radio spots are aimed at promoting
the "sweeteners" in the reform package. One features a
fortyish casual laborer praising the social security pension
and paid vacation that ostensibly he would get from a revised
constitution. Another government spot depicts a
twenty-something woman saying she's "loyal" and can go to
university because of socialism, not her family's wealth.

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Attack, Attack, Attack
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7. (C) Vice President Rodriguez recently lashed out in the
local media at polls showing gains for the "No" camp as a
"manipulation" by the critical cable news outlet Globovision.
He also accused media outlets of not giving equal coverage
to "Yes" events. Rodriguez asked that the "No" bloc be
investigated for excessive use of print and radio media. The
"Yes" camp is also trying to discredit opponents to Chavez'
reform package as disloyal lackeys to an international
(usually American) conspiracy. The "Yes" camp sponsored a
16-page large format color comic insert for the popular
Sunday edition of "Ultimas Noticias" that featured a scrawny
devil trying to dissuade a multicultural group of Venezuelans
from voting for the reforms. A frustrated Uncle Sam looks
on. On November 21, the pro-government daily "Vea" accused
Fedecameras of trying to foment violent "adventure politics."
The day before, "Vea" warned that the Ambassador is an
expert in "long soft coups" and accused him of trying to
start a "rose revolution" in Venezuela.

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Comment
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8. (C) Despite the opposition's increased activism in recent
weeks, President Chavez and the "Yes" camp have more people,
money, and means to influence voters and get them to the
polls on election day than the opposition parties combined.
Nevertheless, they may be concerned with reports that support
for the reforms continues to poll at a level below support
for the Venezuelan president himself. Not surprisingly, the
"Yes" camp is making every effort to transform the debate
into another referendum on Chavez and his "revolution,"
appealing directly to Chavez' substantial base of low income
voters. Although reform opponents, particularly the student
movement, have eroded some support for these sweeping
constitutional changes, the intensification of the BRV's
efforts to promote the reforms shows clearly that the "No"
camp still faces a daunting electoral challenge.

DUDDY