Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07CARACAS2162
2007-11-09 22:18:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Caracas
Cable title:  

CONSTITUTIONAL REFERENDUM: POLLS SAY CHAVEZ STILL

Tags:  PGOV PREL VE 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 002162 

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/09/2027
TAGS: PGOV PREL VE
SUBJECT: CONSTITUTIONAL REFERENDUM: POLLS SAY CHAVEZ STILL
HAS THE EDGE


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Classified By: POLITICAL OFFICER DANIEL LAWTON
FOR REASON 1.4 (D)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 002162

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/09/2027
TAGS: PGOV PREL VE
SUBJECT: CONSTITUTIONAL REFERENDUM: POLLS SAY CHAVEZ STILL
HAS THE EDGE


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Classified By: POLITICAL OFFICER DANIEL LAWTON
FOR REASON 1.4 (D)


1. (C) SUMMARY. Local polls have focused on three issues in
the lead-up to the December 2 constitutional referendum:
likely participation rates, overall support for the
referendum, and the popularity of specific reforms. Polls
indicate that while Chavez' electoral camp does not
necessarily enjoy a majority, high abstention rates are more
likely to hurt the opposition than Chavez. Not surprisingly,
the most popular reforms are those that relate to government
social welfare benefits, while the least popular ones are
those that would concentrate more power in the hands of the
executive. Pollster Luis Vicente Leon of Datanalisis told
Poloffs November 9 that for the first time in eight years the
opposition has a technical chance of defeating Chavez at the
ballot box. However, he and other pollsters still give
Chavez a decided advantage at this moment when factoring in
"intention to vote." Leon also noted that while Chavez'
approval rating has dipped since the December 2006 election
period, the Venezuelan president retains a 60 to 70 percent
job approval rating. END SUMMARY.

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Will you vote?
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2. (C) Recent polls indicate that 40 to 64 percent of those
polled intend to vote, so high abstention rates will be an
important variable in the December 2 elections. According to
a Keller Associates poll released November 8, 64 percent of
those polled intend to vote. An October Datanalisis poll
noted that 46 percent intend to vote, while a September
Consultores 21 (C21) poll noted that 40 percent intend to
vote. The C21 poll indicates that those who "definitely"
plan to vote tend to be pro-BRV sympathizers, while those who
plan to abstain would likely vote against the referendum were
they to turn out. Datanalisis Director Luis Vicente Leon
told Poloffs November 9 that support for Chavez' reform
package rises considerably once intention to vote is factored
in.

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Yes or No
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3. (C) Recent polling data also indicates that both the "Yes"
and "No" campaigns lack a majority. The Keller study
reported that 41 percent of those polled would support the
referendum, 35 percent would oppose it, 20 percent were
undecided, and 5 percent would not vote. Datanalisis noted
that 34 percent would support it, 34 percent would oppose it,
and the rest remained undecided or would not vote. Leon of
Datanalisis told Poloffs he expected that two-thirds of the
undecided would vote "Yes." A poll conducted by Hinterlaces
in September noted that 31 percent would support it, 27
percent would oppose, and 26 percent would not vote. Out of
the major polling firms, only C21 reported that a majority of
those polled would oppose the referendum. According to its
study, 30 percent would support it, 55 percent would oppose
it, and 15 percent remain undecided.

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Individual Reforms
--------------


4. (SBU) Not surprisingly, the most popular reforms are those
that deal with social welfare benefits. For instance, C21
reported that the most popular reform is the article that
guarantees social security for all workers, including those
in the informal sector. Among voters who expressed an
interest in voting, the most popular reforms include: that
Venezuela become a socialist state, social security, and the
reduction of the work week from forty-four to thirty-six
hours. According to C21 the least popular reforms are those
that concentrate more power in the hands of the president.
Seventy-seven percent of those polled opposed the creation of
an appointed governor for the city of Caracas. Equally
unpopular were the proposals dealing with the elimination of
presidential term limits, the extension of the presidential
term limit, and the re-organization of electoral territories.
C21 concluded that the bulk of the referendum would be
rejected if each item were voted on individually.


5. (SBU) Likewise, Keller's study indicates strong opposition
to those articles that would increase Chavez' power. For

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example, 58 percent of those polled said they would vote
against the elimination of presidential term limits, while 69
percent were against reversing the process of
decentralization. Unlike the C21 results, the Keller survey
noted that those polled were equally split between those who
oppose and those who support a reduction of the work week.

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A Technical Chance of Winning
--------------


6. (C) Datanalisis pollster Leon told Poloffs November 9 that
for the first time in eight years, Chavez does not enjoy a
clear and insurmountable majority in the polls. He said the
opposition has a technical chance of defeating the
constitutional referendum, but likened the odds of the "No"
vote winning to Zimbabwe beating Brazil in soccer. Leon
stated that while Chavez has a coherent message, a national
plan, and deliverables, the opposition remains fractured,
lacks an alternative vision for the future, and has little to
offer Venezuela's poor, who constitute an overwhelming
electoral majority. Additionally, Leon pointed out that
while Chavez' approval rating has dipped since the December
2006 election period, he still retains a 60 to 70 percent job
approval rating. Leon noted that strong abstentionist
sentiment within the opposition and the inability of the
opposition to mobilize potential voters logistically will
lead a sizable percentage of potential reform opponents to
stay home December 2.


7. (C) Leon argued the most important group to monitor in the
coming weeks is not the opposition but those he referred to
as "Social Chavistas." He said this sizable group identifies
with the Venezuelan president but does not necessarily agree
with the reform package. Leon noted that this sector is not
likely to be influenced by opposition parties but could be
persuaded to vote "No" by the student movement, Podemos, and
former Defense Minister Baduel. According to Leon, many in
this group see the students as "untainted" and respect
Podemos because, like them, the party is pro-Chavez but does
not agree with the content of the reform package. They also
could be influenced by Baduel because he enjoys legitimacy as
a former close ally of Chavez, but has chosen to speak out
against the referendum.

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Comment
--------------


8. (C) At this stage, President Chavez, electoral challenge
is to frame the December referendum as a vote on his
leadership, not the substance of his constitutional reforms.
A solid majority of Venezuelan voters continue to express
approval for Chavez, on the job performance, despite
registering significant levels of concern over specific
issues such as crime and unemployment. (Note: Chavez'
referendum campaign slogan is "Yes, With Chavez." End Note.)
The electoral challenge for reform opponents is to persuade
its base that they can beat Chavez at the polls in order to
mobilize the sizable number of abstention-minded opponents.
They also need to persuade Chavez supporters that they can
both vote "No" on Chavez, reform package and still be loyal
to the Venezuelan president. (Note: Podemos, referendum
campaign slogan is "Chavez, Yes; Reform, No." End Note.)
Neither Chavez nor his opponents have achieved an
irreversible tipping point as yet. Nevertheless, the likely
high rate of abstention appears to give Chavez,
well-financed electoral machine a significant and decisive
advantage over the disparate and poorly organized reform
opponents.

DUDDY