BRV DERIDES BADUEL, OPPOSITION REACTS SLOWLY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 002158

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

USSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
DEPT PASS TO AID/OTI RPORTER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/29/2022
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM VE
SUBJECT: BRV DERIDES BADUEL, OPPOSITION REACTS SLOWLY

REF: A. CARACAS 02135


B. CARACAS 01384

Classified By: Robert Downes, Political Counselor,
for Reason 1.4(d).


1. (SBU) Summary: President Hugo Chavez and other senior
Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela (BRV) officials wasted no
time in harshly criticizing ex-Defense Minister Raul Baduel
for his November 5 press conference urging Venezuelans to
vote "NO" in the constitutional referendum. On the other
hand, PODEMOS, until recently a party allied with the
Venezuelan president, said they supported Baduel's remarks
and announced that they would campaign against the reforms.
General sentiment about Baduel's motivation is divided, but
the fact that someone so close to Chavez is openly
criticizing his reforms gives the opposition some timely
momentum. End Summary.


2. (SBU) The government's response to Baduel's remarks was
immediate and harsh. President Chavez called Baduel "a
traitor" and a "loose screw" during a November 5 telephone
interview on the pro-government news show "Counterpunch"
likening reform critics to a "nest of scorpions". During a
November 7 speech, Chavez said "traitors would be relegated
to the latrine of history." Vice President Jorge Rodriguez
dismissed the former Defense Minister's appeal to the
military as no more than a "light breeze" claiming the armed
forces remain solidly behind the government. Two other
former Chavez-appointed Defense Ministers attempted to
trivialize Baduel: General Jorge Carneiro suggested the
people would not be fooled by Baduel's "false premises" and
Admiral Orlando Maniglia said Baduel was "losing
credibility". The BRV has reportedly withdrawn Baduel's
personal military security detail.


3. (C) Venezuelan opposition parties did not react
immediately to the general's about-face. PODEMOS, a party
formerly allied with Chavez, announced on November 6 that
they would campaign against the reforms and the party
formally registered with election authorities as a group
advocating a "NO" vote. PODEMOS General Secretary, Ismael
Garcia, told the media that calling Baduel a traitor was
"cowardly". Ramon Martinez, the PODEMOS governor of Sucre
state also endorsed Baduel's views and claimed that Chavez
was "losing the reform vote 2-1". (Note: The polling we have
seen would not support that contention. End Note).
Meanwhile, few of the traditional opposition parties have
embraced Baduel or endorsed his views in the media, although
opposition activists tell us privately they welcome the
development. Un Nuevo Tiempo party leader and Zulia governor
Manuel Rosales said that Baduel showed "a deep democratic
sentiment" and suggested that Chavez "listen to the man that
returned him to power."


4. (C) Some opposition wariness of Baduel appears to stem
from the precedent of Venezuela's UN Ambassador Francisco
Arias Cardenas. Arias Cardenas was one of the five
lieutenant colonels who headed the military coup with
President Chavez in 1992 and supported Chavez' successful run
for the presidency in 1998. Arias Cardenas later broke with
Chavez and ran against him in the 2000 presidential election.
He subsequently mended fences with Chavez, was named
Venezuela's UN Ambassador, and is likely to be Chavez'
candidate for the Zulia governorship in 2008. Against that
backdrop, some opposition skeptics question the sincerity of
Baduel's break with Chavez. Others perceive him to be just
another politically ambitious and potential strongman
"caudillo". Baduel is not discounting the possibility of a
political career at the moment; we understand he has
expressed such an interest to opposition political parties.
Right now, however, the retired general appears to be focused
on traveling throughout Venezuela urging voters to vote "NO"
on the December 2 constitutional referendum.


5. (C) Comment: The strong reaction of the BRV served only
to focus attention on the former defense minister's
criticisms. Baduel's call for a "NO" vote may be starting to
have the same effect among members of the opposition and may
help build further momentum, not because Baduel himself has
any political following, but mainly because someone so close
to Chavez is openly standing against Chavez' reforms. One
active duty National Guard officer told PolCouns and Army
AttachQ on November 7 that the military respects Baduel and
noted that the fact he spoke out against the reforms will
lead military officers to examine the constitutional package
more closely. End Comment.


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DUDDY