CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM CAMPAIGN BEGINS WITH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 002134

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SIPDIS

HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
DEPARTMENT PASS TO AID/OTI (RPORTER)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/05/2017
TAGS: PGOV PHUM ASEC VE
SUBJECT: CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM CAMPAIGN BEGINS WITH
MEGA-MARCHES

REF: CARACAS 002124 AND PREVIOUS

CARACAS 00002134 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: ACTING POLITICAL COUNSELOR DANIEL LAWTON,
REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) Summary. President Chavez held a peaceful November 4
mass rally to mobilize support for his proposed
constitutional reform package. Chavez accused reform
opponents of trying to destabilize his government and urged
government officials to be more "firm" with university
demonstrators. Some (but not all) opposition parties held a
smaller, but noteworthy, November 3 rally in opposition to
Chavez' constitutional changes. Opposition leaders at that
rally called for a "civic resistance" campaign to force
Chavez to cancel the December 2 constitutional referendum.
University students continue to stage protests around
Venezuela. Two persons were killed November 2 at the
University of Zulia when armed Chavez supporters reportedly
fired on university students from a passing car. While the
major rallies for and against constitutional reform were
peaceful, the potential for political violence appears to be
growing. End Summary.

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Chavez Calls for "A Firm Hand"
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2. (SBU) An ebullient and combative President Chavez spoke
November 4 to a mass rally of red-shirted government
supporters in Caracas to generate support for his proposed
sweeping constitutional reforms. Chavez supporters descended
on the capital from all over Venezuela, many arriving in
government buses. Most of the supporters wore
recently-printed "Si, Con Chavez" ("Yes, With Chavez")
T-shirts and marched for hours from a park in eastern Caracas
through the opposition borough of Chacao to downtown Caracas,
tying up traffic in much of the city. The march was peaceful
and festive. A number of government employees participating
in the march told PolCouns that they were told to attend or
risk losing their jobs. Some participants spray painted
pro-reform slogans and hammers-and-sickles on buildings in
Chacao.


3. (SBU) During his two-hour speech to the mass rally,
President Chavez called the December 2 constitutional
referendum the most important in his tenure. He stressed
that his supporters needed to turn out the vote, and he
requested that the "battalions" of his new United Socialist
Party of Venezuela (PSUV) play a leading role in mobilizing
"yes" voters. He also accused the Catholic clergy,
opposition parties, and university students of organizing a
"counter-revolution" at the behest of "American imperialism."
Chavez specifically questioned whether university students
should be given demonstration permits in the wake of the
November 1 confrontations between security personnel and a
small group of students. He urged Interior Minister Pedro
Carreno and Caracas' mayors to use a "firm hand" against
violent demonstrations. Further pro-reform rallies are
expected, but not yet announced.

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Opposition Groups Call for "Civic Resistance"
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4. (SBU) A coalition of some, but not all, opposition parties
held a smaller, but similarly peaceful November 3 rally in
Caracas against Chavez' proposed constitutional changes.
Leaders from Accion Democratica (AD),the National Resistance
Command, the Red Flag party, and Alianza Bravo Pueblo (ABP)
urged the tens of thousands of participants to engage in a
street campaign of "civic resistance" in the coming weeks to
try to persuade the BRV to suspend the December 2
constitutional referendum. Opposition parties Un Nuevo
Tiempo (UNT),Primero Justicia (PJ),COPEI, and Causa R did
not participate in the November 3 rally. UNT Chacao Mayor
Leopoldo Lopez told poloff November 3 that the opposition
parties that advocate voting "no" did not want to be confused
with the "negative" message of the parties advocating
abstention.


5. (SBU) The stage backdrop for the opposition rally carried
a portrait of Venezuela's independence hero Simon Bolivar and
Bolivar's warning that "There is nothing more dangerous than
to allow the same citizen to remain in power a long time."
March organizers told PolAssistant that they did not
experience any significant problems from Chavistas in

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organizing their rally. They noted, however, that police
detained and charged the driver of one of the speakers,
constitutional attorney and opposition activist Hermann
Escarra, with alleged illegal possession of a gun.
University students are planning to march on the Supreme
Court on November 7. Reform opponents are also reportedly
planning large opposition marches on November 10 and 26.

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Zulia Student Demonstration - 2 Killed
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6. (SBU) Two persons were killed and 15 persons injured
during November 2 student demonstrations at the University of
Zulia in Maracaibo according to the local media. Alleged
Chavez supporters reportedly drove by and fired on student
demonstrators, killing a 21-year-old female journalism
student. One of the attackers was also reportedly killed.
The University of Zulia was supposed to hold student
elections on November 8, but those elections have been
postponed until 2008 due to the shooting deaths. On November
2 and 5, university students blocked major highways in
Caracas. National Guard personnel disbursed them with tear
gas. University students also launched demonstrations
November 5 in Aragua and Tachira states.

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Comment
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7. (C) Both sides of the constitutional reform debate
legitimately claimed a measure of success. President Chavez
demonstrated that he can mobilize far more people than the
opposition, although he also continues to exploit state
resources and rely heavily on government employees to do so.
The opposition groups that organized the November 3 rally
generated more support than most observers expected and was
their biggest opposition event since the government took RCTV
off the public airwaves at the end of May.


8. (C) The two weekend rallies underscore several key
questions for the weeks ahead. First, is pro-Chavez support
for the reforms genuine and can the BRV depend on its base to
turn out. Second, will the disparate elements of the
political opposition come to agreement to participate in the
December 2 referendum. And, if they do, is there enough time
for the opposition to mobilize nationally.

DUDDY