LEGISLATURE PASSES CHAVEZ' CONSTITUTIONAL PACKAGE;

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 002124

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/02/2022
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM VE
SUBJECT: LEGISLATURE PASSES CHAVEZ' CONSTITUTIONAL PACKAGE;

REFERENDUM NEXT

REF: A. CARACAS 002050

B. CARACAS 002120

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Classified By: ACTING POLITICAL COUNSELOR DANIEL LAWTON,
REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) Summary. The National Assembly (NA) voted
overwhelmingly November 2 to approve President Chavez'
proposed, sweeping constitutional changes and conveyed the
approved text to the National Electoral Council (CNE) the
same day. The formal 30-day referendum campign has now
begun, with the CNE is expected to hod the required
constitutional referendum on Deceber 2. With Chavez'
approval the NA divided theproposals into two parts for the
referendum: hisoriginal 33 proposed changes and the 36 late
addtions. Opposition parties are organizing a Novembe 3
Caracas march against the constitutional packge; Chavez will
lead a pro-reform mass rally in aracas November 4. Chavez,
backed by considerabe state resources and continued personal
popularty, enjoys a distinct electoral advantage over the
divided opposition going into the referendum campign. End
Summary.

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National Assembly Passes Chnges to 69 Articles
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2. (SBU) The National Assemby gave final approval November
2 to President Chvez' changes to 69 articles of Venezuela's
350-aticle 1999 Constitution and 15 transitional
reguations. Leaders from Chavez' United Socialist Pary of
Venezuela (PSUV),the Communist Party (PCV),and Patria Para
Todos (PPT) expressed full suppot for the changes. Leaders
of the small, pro-Chvez PODEMOS party abstained and accused
the legilature of passing Chavez' proposed reforms "blindl"
and eliciting insufficient public consultation. The PODEMOS
deputies also argued that the nature of the proposed reforms
exceed the amendment procedures of the existing constitution
and require convoking a constitutional assembly. One PPT NA
member also abstained.


3. (SBU) NA President Cilia Flores announced that the
proposed constitutional changes would be put to a national
referendum in two blocs. This decision comes in the wake of
President Chavez' surprising October 31 public comments in
which for the first time the Venezuelan president suggested
the reform package could be voted on in two or three parts.
Chavez insisted, however, that his original proposal to
change 33 articles be maintained as a single bloc. Chavez
had previously insisted that his constitutional reform
proposals be voted on in a national referendum as a single
package.

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CNE Prepares National Referendum
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4. (SBU) NA President Cilia Flores and other NA Assembly
leaders carried the proposed constitutional changes to the
National Electoral Council (CNE) late on November 2 in order
to permit the referendum to be held as scheduled on December

2. This gives the CNE 30 days to prepare for the required
national referendum. CNE officials were already making
preparations to hold the vote on December 2, the date
President Chavez originally proposed. Venezuelan voters will
be able to register two votes -- yes or no -- on the two
parts of the constitutional package: the original 33 proposed
changes and the 36 additional changes that the National
Assembly approved in the second reading. This would maintain
controversial elements, such as eliminating presidential term
limits, in the same group of articles as more popular
proposals, such as reducing the work week to 36 hours. A
simple majority of votes in the December 2 referendum is
required to enact the constitutional changes. The
constitution does not require a minimum percentage of voter
participation for approval.

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What Chavez Wants...
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5. (C) The NA made very few changes to Chavez' proposed
constitutional changes during its three readings over the
last two months and is widely perceived to have secured the
executive's explicit and detailed approval before making
these modifications. Early on, BRV officials publicly

CARACAS 00002124 002.2 OF 002


backtracked on a proposal to rename and restructure the
National Guard. The NA also reinserted some existing
language shoring up private property rights that Chavez had
proposed deleting. In addition, it modified a provision that
would suspend civil liberties and due process during a state
of emergency, restoring some, but not all, elements of due
process.

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The Formal Referendum Campaign Begins
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6. (SBU) While public debate over Chavez' proposed
constitutional changes has been growing since the Venezuelan
president introduced the first tranche of proposals on August
15, the formal referendum campaign began on November 2. Some
20,000 students marched on the National Assembly October 23
and on the CNE November 1 to lobby the BRV to postpone the
referendum until February 2008 to allow for more public
debate (Ref B). Several opposition parties, including Accion
Democratica (AD),left-wing Bandera Roja, Alianza Bravo
Pueblo, and the National Resistance Command, are organizing a
November 3 march in Caracas against the constitutional
reforms. These parties advocate trying to stop the
referendum with street protests and advocate abstentionism.
President Chavez is slated to lead a mass rally in Caracas
November 4 in support of his reforms.


7. (C) Opposition and pro-Chavez activists alike are
concerned about abstentionism in their ranks. Opposition
leaders tell us that they believe a majority of voters oppose
Chavez' constitutional changes, but concede that a large
number of potential "no" voters intend to abstain, converting
"no" sentiment into an electoral minority. An Un Nuevo
Tiempo leader told us that, according to recent polling,
there is a greater chance of persuading Chavistas to vote
"no" than persuading hard-line absentionists to do the same.
Pro-reform advocates are warning against voter apathy,
confusion, and abstentionist sentiment among Chavistas. One
pro-Chavez NA staffer told us that residual "concerns" among
Chavez' NA supporters about some of the reforms may be more
broadly reflected among Chavez' base.


8. (SBU) The CNE regulates and will theoretically supervise
the conduct of the "Yes" and "No" campaigns, including
disbursing some government funds to both sides. The CNE is
requiring political parties and civic organization that
intend to participate in the campaigns to register with the
CNE during the week of November 5. It remains to be seen how
effective the CNE will be in enforcing its rules during the
30-day referendum campaign.

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Comment
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9. (C) President Chavez' decision to allow Venezuelans to
vote on his constitutional changes in two parts instead of as
one package is widely interpreted as a small, but
uncharacteristic concession to blunt opposition criticism of
the constitutional reform process. After keeping a low
public profile the last 14 days, Chavez is expected to travel
throughout Venezuela in the coming weeks to rally support for
his reforms. (Note: He is also scheduled to attend both the
OPEC Summit in Saudi Arabia and the Ibero-American Summit in
Chile and visit a number of countries before December 2.) We
anticipate the Venezuelan president will also try to frame
the referendum as a vote for or against his administration.
Despite initial organizational difficulties, Chavez' new
single pro-government PSUV party may prove to be a formidable
electoral machine.


10. (C) By contrast, opposition parties remain divided on
whether or not to vote "no" in the December 2 referendum or
abstain. In fact, the opposition parties that support voting
"no", such as Un Nuevo Tiempo, Primero Justicia, and COPEI,
do not intend to join the November 3 Caracas march against
Chavez' constitutional reform. Moreover, opposition parties
are only beginning the long process of reconstructing their
bases. In many cases, by their own admission, they have not
yet done much to persuade poor Venezuelans, Chavez' core
constituency and an electoral majority, that the
constitutional reform will be detrimental to them.

DUDDY