CHAVEZ' NEW PARTY: A LABORIOUS BIRTH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 002076

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
DEPARTMENT PASS TO AID/OTI (RPORTER)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/24/2017
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM VE
SUBJECT: CHAVEZ' NEW PARTY: A LABORIOUS BIRTH

REF: CARACAS 001776 AND PREVIOUS

CARACAS 00002076 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: ACTING POLITICAL COUNSELOR DANIEL LAWTON,
REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) Summary. President Chavez' United Socialist Party of
Venezuela (PSUV) is finally scheduled to hold its Founding
Party Congress on November 2 after repeated postponements.
The PSUV will not establish party policies or select leaders,
however, until early 2008, well after the referendum on
Chavez' proposed constitutional changes in early December.
PSUV organizers claim 1.2 million of its purported 5.6
million members are active militants, but Embassy's
pro-government contacts report that grassroots PSUV battalion
meetings have so far been generally poorly attended. Despite
its shaky start, the PSUV enjoys the open -- and generous
support -- of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela (BRV).
While the party is still a far cry from Chavez' stated goal
of being Latin America's most powerful political party, PSUV
membership can help assure voters access to government jobs
and services, and it is therefore likely to be a formidable
electoral machine. End Summary.

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Moving Toward the First Party Congress
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2. (SBU) Some 14,000 United Socialist Party of Venezuela
(PSUV) battalions elected spokespersons, as well as local
leaders in charge of ideology, organization and logistics,
propaganda, social activities, and territorial defense on
September 29. These battalion leaders in turn elected 1635
delegates October 20 to attend the party's Founding Congress,
slated to start November 2 and run until February 4, 2008.
President Chavez is scheduled to speak to the Founding
Congress delegates in a Caracas auditorium the evening of
October 26.


3. (SBU) According to local media reporting, almost
three-quarters of the PSUV Congress delegates are male and
35% of the delegates are less than 25 years old. The
Founding Congress is supposed to determine the "ideological
and organizational soul" of the new, single pro-government
party. It will select transitory leaders, but PSUV
organizers postponed the formal election of party leaders
until early in 2008. The delay is widely believed to be part
of a government effort to stem internal party fissures prior
to the referendum on Chavez' proposed constitutional changes
in early December.

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Simmering Divisions
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4. (C) PSUV promoters claim that 5.6 million of Venezuela's
over 16 million voters joined the new party and that 1.2
million PSUV "aspiring militants" met weekly over the last
few months to help launch the party. Our pro-government
contacts, however, tell us that the party's battalion
meetings have failed to draw widespread support. National
Assembly member Elvis Hidrobo Amoroso of Aragua State told
PolCouns October 23 that more senior BRV officials asked him
to work on the formation of the PSUV and that he is dutifully
complying. Hidrobo surprisingly added that he thought the
PSUV was a "stupid idea of Chavez" and that the PSUV is
failing to generate deep grass-roots support.


5. (C) Merida State Assembly representative Adelis Leon
Guevara told Poloff October 5 that the PSUV's Saturday
battalion meetings in that western state attracted "mainly
government bureaucrats," whom he said participated to protect
their jobs. The 67-year-old Leon, a founding member of the
Fifth Republic Movement in Merida, said he refused to join
the PSUV as a result of growing disenchantment with Chavez'
concentration of powers. Bolivar State Assembly
representative Alexis Romero told PolCouns October 24 that he
joined the PSUV, but only because he feared BRV
recriminations if he did not. Romero said PSUV battalion
meetings in Bolivar State attract less than five percent of
their registered members.


6. (SBU) National Assembly member Iris Varela publicly
criticized the PSUV for allowing public and elected officials
to serve as local PSUV battalion leaders. She and National
Assembly member Luis Tascon have also criticized the central
government for facilitating the selection of opportunistic
battalion leaders rather than more ideologically committed

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Chavistas (Reftel). Falcon State Governor Jesus Montilla,
Vargas State Governor Antonio Rodriguez San Juan, as well as
several National Assembly members and at least three mayors
were elected to the PSUV party congress. PSUV National
Promotion Commission Member and National Assembly Second Vice
President Roberto Hernandez told the local media October 23
that PSUV would likely ask these officials to step down from
the PSUV Founding Congress.

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State Support
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7. (C) Despite lingering organizational problems, PSUV enjoys
considerable state advantages, particularly the open support
of government media sources. National Electoral Council
(CNE) rector Vicente Diaz publicly urged his colleagues in
early October to approve an administrative investigation of
President Chavez for actively promoting PSUV membership and
activities during state events. The CNE did not accede to
Diaz' request. CNE officials also recently confirmed that
the PSUV has not reimbursed the electoral body for its
extensive logistical support in supervising the formal
inscription of PSUV members in July and August. The PSUV is
also asking its members to deposit their monthly donations
into two government-run banks.

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Comment
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8. (C) Despite exaggerated claims from BRV officials of the
PSUV's success, the formation of President Chavez' single
pro-government party has been continuously plagued by
organizational difficulties and internal differences. Three
small, but prominent, pro-Chavez parties, the Communist
Party, Patria Para Todos, and Podemos, continue to spurn
joining the PSUV, and Podemos is vocally opposing elements of
Chavez' constitutional package from within the National
Assembly. Nevertheless, membership in the PSUV helps assure
Venezuelans of access to government jobs, contracts, and
services. Conversely, strapped opposition parties have few
concrete benefits to offer prospective voters. Consequently,
the PSUV is likely to retain significant breadth of support,
even as it faces real challenges generating depth of support.
Like its MVR predecessor, the PSUV still represents a
potentially formidable electoral machine.

FRENCH