FEAR, LOATHING, AND STATE PATERNALISM IN MERIDA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CARACAS 002058

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
DEPARTMENT PASS TO AID/OTI (RPORTER)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/22/2017
TAGS: PGOV PHUM SOCI KDEM VE
SUBJECT: FEAR, LOATHING, AND STATE PATERNALISM IN MERIDA


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Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT DOWNES,
REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) Summary. University administrators, opposition
parties, and civil society leaders in the university city of
Merida increasingly fear the growing authoritarianism of
President Chavez. University of Los Andes (ULA)
administrators believe the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela
(BRV) will put pressure on the autonomous university to be
more "Bolivarian." Opposition parties in the city note that
they lack resources to rebuild their bases and receive scant
attention from self-censoring local media outlets. While
Merida's opposition leaders favor mobilizing voters to vote
against Chavez' proposed changes to the constitution in the
December referendum, they fear that many of their party
members will choose to abstain instead. Merida's pro-Chavez
governor and city mayor are channeling significant state
resources to poor neighborhoods via state-run social
programs. Consequently, the BRV appears better poised to
mobilize its supporters in Merida for the December
constitutional referendum.
End Summary.


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Merida: University City Under Bolivarian Pressure
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2. (SBU) Merida is the capital of the western Andean state
of the same name. The valley city of over 350,000 hosts the
prestigious public University of Los Andes (ULA) and attracts
both domestic and international tourists. ULA hosted a USA
Cultural Week at the university administration's request
October 1-5. DCM opened the event, and PAS provided a series
of speakers, including Fulbright Alumni and Embassy speakers,
as well as a visiting American classical guitarist. While
the still autonomous ULA provides what many call an "umbrella
of protection" against President Chavez, the university
administration and opposition parties increasingly fear the
government's growing authoritarianism.


3. (SBU) President Chavez narrowly carried the state of
Merida in the December 2006 presidential elections, but
consensus opposition candidate Manuel Rosales carried the
city of Merida in that race. Traditional Venezuelan parties
Democratic Action (AD) and the Christian Democrats (COPEI)
remain relatively strong in Merida. Chavez supporters have
attacked both parties' offices several times over the last
several years. Pointing to residual char marks on the
ceiling not yet painted over, local COPEI Secretary General
Americo Sulbaran told poloff that Chavistas last torched
COPEI's offices with Molotov cocktails in December 2006 after
Chavez won re-election. Two Merida AD leaders are still
facing long trials on criminal charges related to Chavez'
brief ouster in April 2002.


4. (C) ULA's 42,000 students have a well-deserved reputation
for activism. Opposition and pro-government student leaders
clashed in 2005 after the government annulled student
elections that opposition student leader Nixon Moreno
reportedly had won. Moreno went underground after the BRV
pressed criminal charges against him, and in 2007 was given
refuge in the Holy See Embassy in Caracas, where he still
resides. The BRV reportedly mobilizes ultra-left students
(and former students),who reside in strategically-located
block of student housing, to counter opposition activities.
A small group of current student leaders told Poloff that
they are considering resuming street protests, but harbor
doubts about their utility. They said opposition political
parties want them to assume a disproportionate share of the
risks in confronting the BRV without giving them due credit.



5. (C) The University of the Andes is one of a handful of
legally protected autonomous universities in Venezuela. It
guards its autonomy jealously despite receiving over 90
percent of its budget from the central government.
University administrators, however, are increasingly
convinced that Chavez has ULA in his sights and will take
action - financially or more directly - to eliminate the
university as a locus of opposition sentiment. During the
DCM's October 1 visit, the ULA Vice Rector pointed to the
BRV's elimination last year of the national university entry
exam as one strong indication that serious change is in the
air and that ULA will be "Bolivarianized." In an attempt to
stymie or slow sentiment for a takeover or radicalization,
ULA is working hard to open branches in lower-income

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neighborhoods in Merida.

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Opposition Parties Flailing
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6. (C) Opposition parties failed to unite behind a single
candidate in the last state and local elections, facilitating
the Fifth Republic Movement (MVR) victories of Governor
Florencio Antonio Porras, a former military officer from
Miranda State, and Merida Mayor Carlos Leon Mora. COPEI, AD,
and Primero Justicia leaders told poloff that political
contributions from local businesses have dried up in recent
months. Moreover, a group of Merida business leaders told
the DCM that they are increasingly fearful of BRV reprisals.
Local opposition party leaders also said that the area's
three regional TV networks and four newspapers are exercising
more self-censorship since President Chavez' re-election.


7. (C) Further complicating the challenges opposition parties
face, opposition party leaders all lamented that there is
widespread apathy among voters despite the sweeping
constitutional changes Chavez plans to put to a public
referendum in early December. PJ and COPEI leaders stressed
that they are encouraging their party members to vote against
the reform package, but said a significant portion of their
rank-and-file members favor abstaining. Local AD leaders
said they favored participating in the referendum, but given
AD's party decision to abstain in the 2005 parliamentary and
2006 presidential elections, they feared widespread
abstentionism among its party members. While the leaders of
opposition parties continue to meet in Merida, they said the
lack of consensus among national opposition leaders on how to
defeat Chavez' constitutional proposals is hurting them
locally.

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Bolivarian Paternalism
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8. (C) Vice-Mayor David Segura, flanked by a wall-size city
map with pins indicating existing BRV social programs,
outlined for poloff the Bolivarian municipality's
initiatives. He stressed that the majority of Venezuelans
"lack of conscience" and require "a strong leader" like
President Chavez to impose order. He extolled the work of
the Barrio Adentro medical missions and community councils in
the city. Community councils in Merida managed budgets of
$15,000-25,000 over the last year to implement microprojects,
such as the installation of retaining walls and traffic
lights. Segura claimed that Chavez' constitutional reform
would give the councils more resources and ensure more
equitable distribution of government resources and services
across the city.


9. (C) During a walking tour of city hall, the Vice-Mayor
proudly pointed out the municipal government's constituent
call center staffed by 13 disabled persons, the city hall's
recycling bins, a nursery, and a city van that dispenses
subsidized medicines. He noted that the city hall coffee
stand is operated by a cooperative, adding that it was the
fourth such venture because "not all cooperatives are
successful." Again, lamenting a lack of "discipline," Segura
said all city hall employees have their index fingers
digitally scanned when they report to and leave work to keep
an accurate record of their time and attendance. Poloff
separately visited well-trafficked, medium-sized Mercal
store. The arrival of a shipment of coarse sugar had
attracted over a dozen mid-day customers, but no refined
white sugar, milk, eggs, or chicken were available.

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Comment
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10. (C) Merida illustrates the way the BRV is progressively
penetrating and intimidating formerly strong anti-Chavez
bastions. To their credit, many of Merida's university
administrators as well as opposition and civil society
leaders continue to promote and protect their remaining
democratic freedoms despite the prospect of potential
reprisals. Their efforts, however, do not constitute
anything approaching a united front against Chavez' growing
authoritarianism. In a city in which a majority of voters
voted against President Chavez in December 2006, even Chavez'
strongest opponents concede that a majority of city voters,
due to opposition abstentionism, could potentially approve

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Chavez' sweeping constitutional changes. In addition, the
state and capital city government have at their disposal
significantly more resources to retain the loyalties, or at
least placate, many of Merida's voters.

DUDDY