POLITICAL POLARIZATION: VENEZUELA'S DIVIDED

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CARACAS 001742

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
DEPT PASS TO AID/OTI RPORTER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/19/2017
TAGS: MARR PGOV PINR PREL VE
SUBJECT: POLITICAL POLARIZATION: VENEZUELA'S DIVIDED
FAMILIES

REF: A. 2006 CARACAS 01789

B. 2003 CARACAS 00682

C. 2005 CARACAS 00090

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Classified By: Political Counselor Robert Downes
for reasons 1.4 (B) and (D)


1. (C) Summary. Venezuelan society has become increasingly
politically polarized as a result of President Chavez' "with
me or against me" tone of governance. Controversial
constitutional reform proposals and his efforts to implement
an increasingly radical "revolutionary" program in the
Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela (BRV) are exacerbating this
polarization. Post offers the following anecdotes of high
profile and politically divided Venezuelan families to
illustrate the deep political cleavages among Venezuelans, as
well as the bleak prospects for dialogue or reconciliation
across political lines. End Summary.

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Political Gap Widens
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2. (C) A Datanalysis poll taken in July and August
highlights how politically polarized Venezuela is, with 39.4
percent of respondents believing the country is moving in the
right direction and 41.5 percent saying the opposite. As
Chavez presses for sweeping constitutional changes and
radicalization of Venezuelan politics, economy, and society,
the gulf between his followers and opponents is likely to
grow. Controversial constitutional revisions, such as
indefinite reelection and erosion of private property rights,
will only harden these two camps. Indeed, some 39.8 percent
of respondents to the same survey said that, if a referendum
on the reforms were held "next Sunday," they would vote
against it, while 30.2 percent said they would vote in favor.
The fencesitters who find political salvation in neither
Chavez nor the opposition (the "ni-nis") may well choose to
sit out a constitutional referendum--over 20 percent of the
"ni-ni" respondants said they definitely or probably would
abstain.


3. (C) President Chavez has been a polarizing figure from
the beginning of his presidency. He uses strong, threatening
language to divide Venezuelan social and political opinion to
bolster his popular support and cow his opponents. He
attempts to divide Venezuelan society into "haves" and "have
nots," imperialists and Bolivarians, capitalists and
socialists, and, perhaps most fundamentally, evil and good.
After more than eight years in power, Chavez' divisive
messages have saturated domestic audiences and exacerbated
political enmities (Ref A).

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A Bolivarian and Opposition Couple
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4. (C) William and Andres Izarra are a formidable Chavista
father-son team. William (the father) is well-known as an
ideological author of the Bolivarian revolution and former
Vice Foreign Minister for Asia, Oceania, and the Middle East.
He is currently traveling throughout Venezuela to stand up
"Ideological Formation Centers." His son, Andres, is a
former Communications Minister and now heads Telesur, Chavez'
international satellite television network. He also served
as Press Counselor of the Venezuelan Embassy in Washington,
and was news manager of the RCTV program, "El Observador,"
until he resigned in April 2002.


5. (C) In a James Carville and Mary Matlin union, Andres'
wife, Isabel Adelaida Gonzalez Capriles, prior to her
marriage in 2005, was a presenter on the pro-opposition
Globovision talk show, "Alo, Ciudadano." She tendered her
resignation after her relationship was made public and
exposed her to harsh criticism from viewers and the
Venezuelan public. To further complicate family relations,
Gonzalez' stepfather is Antonio Ledezma, founder of
opposition party Brave People's Alliance and member of the
radical opposition movement National Resistance Command.
Andres Izarra recently told Poloff and PD officers with a
laugh that he and his wife can sometimes discuss, but always
argue about and never will agree on, politics. He added that
politics are not "central" to their relationship.

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Fratricidal Feuds...

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6. (C) Romance aside, a number of other high-profile
Venezuelan families have similar internal political divides,
oftentimes pitting brothers and sisters against each other.
The Escarra family, for example, contains both the leading
intellectual advocate and opponent of Chavez' proposed
constitutional changes. Hermann, a constitutional lawyer,
sat on the 1999 Constituent Assembly as one of the few
non-Chavista representatives and is vocal in his opposition
to Chavez's proposed changes. He calls the changes a
"presidential coup d'etat against the Constitution and
democracy." Hermann has been a frequent guest on political
talk shows since Chavez announced his intention to change the
1999 document Hermann helped to draft.


7. (C) Meanwhile, his brother, Carlos, is also a
constitutional lawyer as well as a National Assembly deputy
and member of Chavez' constitutional reform council. A case
of nurture over nature, opposition constitutional lawyer
Tulio Alvarez told Poloffs August 28 that the brothers had
been raised separately, one by their mother and one by their
father, helping to explain the vast political gulf between
them.


8. (C) The Toro Hardy brothers offer another microcosm of
Venezuelan political life. Alfredo Toro Hardy is currently
serving as the BRV's Ambassador to the United Kingdom.
Alfredo has been a key proponent of the Bolivarian Revolution
in the United Kingdom, and is a long-time leftist,
intellectual, and diplomat. In a June interview to
Venezuelan government television station VTV, Alfredo noted
his deep and long-standing opposition to the neoliberal
economic model and his belief that Chavez can "rectify the
damage it has done" in Venezuela. His brother Jose Toro
Hardy, on the other hand, is a former PDVSA director,
columnist in pro-opposition daily, "El Universal," and
staunch critic of the Chavez government, particularly of its
handling of the economy. He told Emboffs August 27 that he
has already sent two of his children to live abroad in
response to death threats he continues to receive for his
outspoken opposition to the Venezuelan President. He
explained that he and his brother are close and, since he
believes in freedom of political opinion, he has to extend
that same courtesy to his brother. Nevertheless, they do not
discuss politics with each other, and, he chuckled, their
wives prevent them from arguing over such issues.

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...Not an Uncommon Occurrence
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9. (C) Another family mired in polarized Venezuelan politics
are the Medinas. Originally hailing from the pro-Chavez
party Patria Para Todos (PPT),the Medina siblings are now
scattered across the political spectrum. Pablo Medina joined
PPT and served as its Secretary General after splitting from
the now-opposition party Radical Cause, which he helped
found. In 2002, however, Medina tendered his resignation
from PPT and set himself in radical opposition to Chavez, at
times advocating violent uprisings (Ref B) and asserting
himself as a potential opposition candidate prior to the
December 2006 presidential election.


10. (C) Pablo Medina's sisters include Flor, an opposition
affiliated-journalist who works with Pablo; Pastora,
currently serving as a PPT deputy in the National Assembly;
and Luisa, an assistant to PPT Secretary General and National
Assembly deputy Jose Albornoz. A fourth sister is a
pro-Chavez Ministry of Foreign Affairs diplomat posted in
Italy. Flor Medina told Poloffs August 15 that the siblings
amicably gather at family events but, like other politically
divided families, cannot discuss Venezuelan politics. Flor
did note that Pastora often seats herself next to Pablo and
speculated that she may be seeking some sort of
"reconciliation" with him.


11. (C) One of President Chavez' most vocal opponents is
Monsignor Baltazar Porras, Archbishop of Merida and the
former president of the Venezuelan Episcopal Conference.
Bishop Porras has compared Chavez to Hitler and urged the USG
to be more critical of the Venezuelan president (Ref C).
Baltazar's brother, Teodoro Porras, has served as the
ideological counselor for Chavez's Fifth Republic Movement
(MVR) in eastern Venezuela and as campaign advisor for
Governor of Anzoategui Tarek William Saab in the run-up to

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the 2004 gubernatorial and local elections.


12. (C) The Villegas brothers also make an unlikely
political trio. Vladmir Villegas Poljak is the current Vice
Minister for Asia, the Middle East, and Oceania and also
served as Ambassador to Mexico, where he was infamous for his
Bolivarian proselytizing. One of his brothers, Mario, is an
opposition-affiliated journalist for "El Mundo," a
pro-opposition daily, while the other, Ernesto, is a
prominent Bolivarian newscaster on "En Confianza," a talk
show broadcast over state-owned television station VTV
weekday mornings.

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Comment
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13. (C) Political polarization infects every aspect of
Venezuelan society. The examples of prominent, politically
divided families demonstrate that no sector, from the media
to the clergy to the political and economic classes, is
immune from this divide. Most telling, however, is the
refrain Poloff heard repeatedly from members of these divided
families--"we cannot discuss politics." There seems very
little room for constructive political debate in Venezuela.
Members of the opposition and Chavistas alike seek data,
opinions, and company that reinforce their own mindset rather
than seeking new information or exchanges that challenge
their beliefs. If even family members, who otherwise respect
and love their siblings and spouses, cannot rationally
communicate their political differences, there seems little
hope in the near-term that broader Venezuelan society can
find common ground, let alone reconciliation.

DUDDY