SUMATE SEES TOUGH YEAR AHEAD

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 000161

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
DEPT PASS TO AID/OTI RPORTER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/22/2017
TAGS: PGOV KDEM VE
SUBJECT: SUMATE SEES TOUGH YEAR AHEAD

REF: A. 06 CARACAS 02478

B. 06 CARACAS 00461

C. CARACAS 71

D. CARACAS 66

E. CARACAS 59

F. CARACAS 52

CARACAS 00000161 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT DOWNES FOR 1.4 (D)

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Summary
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1. (C) PolCouns and PolOff met with Sumate President
Alejandro Plaz and Director Roberto Abdul January 17 to
discuss their views of developments and plans for 2007.
Pleased with the significant expansion of their volunteer
network engendered by their activities during the 2006
presidential campaign, the Sumate leaders said they would
continue to focus on providing training sessions on citizen
participation in governance to expose the failures of BRV
administration. The normally politically-focused Plaz and
Abdul were uncharacteristically more preoccupied with the
likely harm to Venezuela caused by Chavez' recently announced
economic program than on political developments. They did
indicate they were maintaining good relations with opposition
leader Manuel Rosales and would continue to provide civic
training in support of his efforts. They confirmed that the
trial against four Sumate leaders (including Plaz) for
receiving NED money remains on hold, but new cases related to
the National Assembly's 2006 witch hunt may begin (Ref a and
b). Meanwhile, Sumate and Plaz continue to face harassment
by the tax authority and Sumate Vice President Maria Corina
Machado faces additional criminal indictment for her alleged
support of the government that temporarily replaced Chavez in
April 2002. End Summary.

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Sumate Grows, but Opportunities Shrink
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2. (C) PolCouns and PolOff met with Sumate President
Alejandro Plaz and Roberto Abdul January 17 to discuss the
electoral NGO's take on the political scene and their plans
for the coming year. The NGO leaders said they were pleased
with the growth of Sumate's volunteer network during the
presidential election season. According to Plaz and Abdul,
Sumate trained over 66,000 general opposition electoral
witnesses, placed 11,000 Sumate volunteer observers in
approximately 75 percent of the most populated voting
centers, and expanded its number of electoral trainers to
2,000. Sumate found the vote itself was transparent based on
their volunteers' observations and quick count results,
although they, like the EU, denounced Chavez'
disproportionate advantage in terms of campaign air time and
misuse of government resources in the campaign.


3. (C) Plaz and Abdul thought there was little the
opposition could or would do in the short run given Chavez'
lock on power and determination to impose his socialist
program. Plaz doubted that former opposition presidential
contender and Zulia Governor Manuel Rosales would succeed as
a national opposition leader if he did not shed the old guard
politicians associated with previous, discredited governments
and the failed Coordinadora Democratica that led the 2004
recall referendum effort. Moreover, both leaders said
opposition supporters were disillusioned and would likely be
reluctant to support recall referenda that would only prove
(once again) that they were in the minority. (Note:
Governors and mayors have passed the mid-point in their terms
and so, by law, can be subjected to recall referenda.)
Nevertheless, Plaz said that Sumate continues to maintain
good relations with the Rosales camp and would do what it
could to provide civic and other types of training to support
his organizational efforts. The NGO is also planning to keep
their newly expanded network active and hopefully further
increase its membership and outreach by holding broader civic
training sessions on BRV programs to increase citizen
participation in hopes of exposing the BRV's administrative
failures. They plan to hold internal elections in 2007 to
renew Sumate's leadership.

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The Economy as Chavez' Achilles Heel
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CARACAS 00000161 002.2 OF 002



4. (C) Compared to their usual political focus in previous
conversations, Plaz and Abdul concentrated more heavily on
Chavez' economic vulnerabilities, which they thought would be
more determinant in Chavez' eventual downfall. They were
particularly preoccupied by Chavez' recent announcements of
his economic program (Refs c, d, e and f) and the harm that
his policies would engender for Venezuela. Plaz noted
declining oil prices, Venezuela's falling oil production, and
rising domestic consumption would eventually reduce money
available for Chavez' social missions causing discontent
among supporters. In the near term Plaz said Chavez' massive
government spending program would fuel inflation and his
nationalization of industries and increasing state control
over foreign exchange and the economy in general would
discourage investment and lead to shortages. While both Plaz
and Abdul indicated these developments might lead to Chavez'
downfall, they were more concerned with the harm these
developments would bring to Venezuela.

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Trials
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5. (C) Sumate remains in judicial limbo. While the trial
against four Sumate leaders (including Plaz) is still on
hold, pending selection of the lay judges (Ref a and b),Plaz
and Abdul did not rule out the possibility of the Attorney
General bringing new charges against the NGO based on the
findings of the National Assembly's 2006 "investigation" (Ref
a). Sumate Vice President Maria Corina Machado was scheduled
to appear in court January 18 along with more than a dozen
others to answer to civilian rebellion charges for allegedly
signing the so-called Carmona Decree supporting the
government that temporarily replaced Chavez during the April
2002 coup. After several hours of waiting, the hearing was
postponed until mid-February. Machado has repeatedly said
she only signed a visitors' book when she attended the
swearing-in ceremony. Plaz also said the Seniat harassment
and its investigation into Sumate's and his personal finances
continue. Plaz expects Seniat to fine the NGO a hefty sum
for the domestic donations it received. Fortunately, he
said, the NGO has built up a nest egg to help offset the
potentially onerous financial burden.

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Comment
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6. (C) Plaz and Abdul's take on the opposition's lack of
opportunities to exploit Chavez' weakness is consistent with
the analysis of many of Post's opposition party contacts
(septel). With virtually no domestic check on his authority,
we would not be surprised if Chavez renewed and increased
pressure on the NGO. It is possible, however, that rather
than continue the path of direct judicial harassment through
criminal trials, the BRV might be setting up a different
approach: bleeding the NGO dry with endless investigations,
and intrusion by tax and other authorities, which have a
lower profile and thus are more difficult to attract
international attention. Embassy will continue its outreach
efforts to other diplomatic missions to engender support of
the NGO in the face of overt harassment.

BROWNFIELD