CHAVEZ' DOMESTIC POPULARITY LARGELY UNSCATHED BY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 001335

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SUBJECT: CHAVEZ' DOMESTIC POPULARITY LARGELY UNSCATHED BY
RCTV SHUTDOWN


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Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT DOWNES FOR 1.4 (D)


1. (C) Summary: Although recent polls suggest a majority of
Venezuelans disagreed with President Chavez' shutdown of
Radio Caracas Television (RCTV),the decision does not appear
to have significantly hurt his popularity rating. According
to Datos polling firm, 67% of respondents--mostly poor and
mainly Chavista--disapproved of RCTV's closure, 56% said they
supported the pro-RCTV student protests, and a similar number
think they should continue. Rival firm Datanalisis shows a
slightly higher disapproval of the RCTV shutdown and a slight
downturn in Chavez' popularity as a result of the decision.
Still, Datanalisis Director Luis Vicente Leon notes there is
a significant difference between an unpopular decision and an
unpopular leader. He rules out a significant decline in
Chavez' popularity because of RCTV. While Leon believes a
possible erosion in Chavez' support could begin later this
year due to Chavez' increased radicalism and populism, the
Venezuelan leader is likely to hold on in the medium-to
long-term absent a strong, credible opposition alternative.

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"We Want Our RCTV"
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2. (SBU) Results recently released by respected Venezuelan
polling firm Datos indicate that a majority of Venezuelans
(67%)--including 31% of Chavez' supporters--disapproved of
the BRV's shut down of Radio Caracas Television (RCTV). Some
56% overall believed the decision jeopardized that freedom,
but a city by city break down shows that Venezuelans are
somewhat divided. Those in Greater Caracas who perceived a
threat only narrowly edged out those who did not 48-46%,
while in Puerto La Cruz they were outnumbered 53-41%. In
the opposition bastion of Maracaibo, 77% perceived a threat.
Datos' poll is based on interviews of mostly working and poor
classes in eight cities from June 8-10.


3. (SBU) Datos' poll also asserted that, contrary to BRV
arguments, RCTV was the most widely viewed station, with
32.8% --mostly poor--respondents listing it as their favorite
channel. Venevision was close behind with 32.2%, followed by
Globovision (7.7%) and state-owned VTV (7.2%). Since the
shutdown, Venevision appears to have picked up some RCTV's
aficionados to achieve a 44% popularity rating. Globovision
also surged after the closure going from 7% to 32% as an
overall favorite station. The cable news station ranked
first as the preferred news source (32%),followed by
Venevision which received 29%. Forty-six percent thought
Venevision had restricted coverage of many recent
RCTV-related events, however. (Note: VTV was fourth again,
preferred by only 8%.) When asked their hypothetical reaction
to a potential BRV decision to shutter Globovision, 75%
expressed disapproval.


4. (SBU) The poll also suggests there is support for the
pro-RCTV students' marches. Some 56% said they supported the
marches, including roughly 23% of Chavistas, while 23%
(including 52% of Chavistas) opposed them. Fifty-one percent
thought the protests should continue, while a third of
respondents thought they should cease. A city by city
breakdown shows the strongest support in Maracaibo, with
almost 73% of that city's residents favoring continued
student activism. They were followed by residents from
Barquisimeto and the boarder town of San Cristobal, who
supported continued protests 70% and 63%, respectively.
Figures for Caracas were not given.


5. (SBU) Government reaction to the protests was viewed
negatively. Datos found that almost 60% of those polled
disagreed with Chavez' response to the protest. A tracking
poll by opposition-sympathetic firm Hinterlaces indicates
that 65% doubt the United States is behind the
demonstrations, despite the BRV's incessant accusations.

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Disappointment Still Not Enough to Hurt Chavez
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6. (C) Despite public disapproval over the RCTV issue,
Datanalisis Director Luis Vicente Leon thought the issue
would have little impact on Chavez' popularity rating.
Datanalisis' tracking polls have recorded a slightly higher
rejection rate of RCTV's closure than Datos (75-80%),and a
slight drop in the Venezuelan leader's popularity. Leon told
Poloff June 20 that this was probably the first time that

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Chavez' arbitrary decisionmaking had affected his own
followers. Still, Leon quickly stressed that there was a
difference between an unpopular decision and an unpopular
leader. He discounted the possibility that the decision
marked the beginning of a precipitous decline in Chavez'
popularity rating, noting that Chavez' popularity is still
above the 2003 low point recorded by the firm. Furthermore,
Leon thought the protests would only have an impact in the
medium- to long-term, at best. He dismissed comparisons of
the pro-RCTV students with the Group of 28 and commented that
the BRV student leaders seemed to be more charismatic and
better orators.


7. (SBU) Even Hinterlaces president Oscar Schemel, whose
firm's most recent poll shows Chavez' popularity at 31%, its
lowest point in five years, has publicly said that Chavez'
current ratings "do not mean a long-term rupture" in his
popularity. Leon likened the shutdown's impact to a "scrape"
versus a cut or serious bruise. He thinks Chavez realizes
that he may have pushed the envelope too far with the
decision and will wait for emotions to die down during Copa
America soccer tournament, which Venezuela is currently
hosting. Datos found that Venezuelans are almost split as to
whether the event will be a sufficient distraction.

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2007 Outlook Grim
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8. (C) Leon thought Chavez would continue to become more
autocratic during the second half of 2007, prompting a slow
erosion in his popularity. He explained that as Chavez
struggles to maintain public support and contain fissures
within his fractured political movement, he will be forced to
take more populist and politically radical moves. These
moves in turn will cost Chavez popularity, particularly as
his efforts to increase state control over the economy lead
to more shortages and other economic problems. Leon was less
certain about the prospects for repression, as he did not
believe the military would ever be willing to turn against
the people. Leon was skeptical about the potential for an
opposition resurgence, noting that the fact they are playing
only a behind-the-scenes role in the student protests shows
how debilitated they are.

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Comment
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9. (C) While there are conflicting claims on Venezuelan
pollsters' accuracy and bias, the Datos poll suggests the
RCTV shut-down struck a personal chord with many Venezuelans,
but not a political one. If true, prospects for successful
demonstrations in the future are probably limited, barring
major Chavista miscues. Other economic issues, such as
mounting food shortages and inflation, as well as Chavez'
continued efforts to centralize power, are generating
discontent that over time will start to slowly eat away at
Chavez' popularity. Absent a credible opposition contender
able to replicate his connection to the masses, provide a
plausible alternative, and capitalize on frustration with his
administration, however, Chavez is likely to continue his
hold on power for the foreseeable future.

BROWNFIELD