GO ON, TAKE THE MONEY AND RUN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 001138

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

TREASURY FOR KLINGENSMITH, NGRANT, AND MMALLOY
COMMERCE FOR 4431/MAC/WH/MCAMERON
NSC FOR DTOMLINSON
HQ SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/08/2017
TAGS: ECON EFIN VE
SUBJECT: GO ON, TAKE THE MONEY AND RUN

REF: CARACAS 959

Classified By: Economic Counselor Andrew N. Bowen for reason 1.4(d).


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Economic and political uncertainty have
convinced many Venezuelans to move assets abroad. While
Venezuela has long been a source of capital flight, in recent
years Venezuelans have begun to move not only liquid assets
out of the country, but also to "de-capitalize" their
businesses and personal finances, using cheap debt finance to
move money off shore. When an economic correction occurs, or
if the government expropriates their property, business
owners will have gotten their money out and the BRV and banks
will be left holding the bag. The publication of Venezuela's
first quarter balance of payments demonstrates an
increasingly large outflow of funds and the future of
Venezuela's domestic industrial base looks dim. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) In recent weeks, bankers, financial analysts, and
average Venezuelans have described to econoffs their methods
for de-capitalizing, or mortgaging their lives in Venezuela.
While home prices are at record highs as money in the streets
chases a limited supply of homes, much of this demand is
driven by easy credit. The banking sector, awash in cash,
has been actively promoting car and home loans to an
increasing array of borrowers. Banks have also begun
offering "reverse mortgages," or home equity loans, that
allow homeowners to take equity out by borrowing against the
homes they already own. Contacts have described to econoffs
the common tactic now for Venezuelans to obtain home equity
loans and then use the parallel market to move the borrowed
money into dollars and offshore. Given that mortgages tend
to be at or below the rate of inflation (which has been 19.5
percent for the past 12 months),homeowners rarely have
trouble paying the monthly bill. In addition, given the
almost universal belief that Venezuela will (eventually)
devalue the currency (probably sometime in 2008),they expect
to be able to pay off the mortgage with fewer dollars than it
cost.


3. (C) Similar to homeowners, businessmen in Venezuela have
been borrowing on their assets (factories, inventories, etc.)
and taking the proceeds out of the country. The theory is
that they can make interest payments from current revenue
and, should the economy ever tank or should the government
attempt to expropriate their property, they can hand the BRV
the keys, along with all of the debt.


4. (C) A representative of a major western bank in Venezuela
described to econoffs their most popular product. The bank
created a structured note based on dollar or Euro-denominated
assets and priced in bolivars. The business owner purchases
the product for bolivars (perhaps with borrowed money) and
books it as an investment. Since the note is a proxy for
hard currency assets offshore, he has essentially moved money
out of the country. Essentially a parallel market
transaction, this instrument has the benefit of not
increasing the firm's liabilities as it remains an investment
on the books, rather than a loan from a bank.


5. (C) Banks are permitted to hold up to 30 percent of equity
in foreign currency, but many have gotten around this
restriction. The President of Banco Canarias (STRICTLY
PROTECT) described to econoffs their preferred system. They
begin by selling their client a structured note in foreign
currency issued by a U.S. investment bank. The note appears
in the client's Venezuelan account, but is held abroad. It
does not fall under the 30 percent rule because it is treated
as the client's personal investment. This instrument
protects the client from inflation and devaluation and also
protects the bank as they can seize the holding in the event
that the client defaults or declares bankruptcy in Venezuela.



6. (C) Foreign banks or those with foreign holdings can also
move capital out via dividends, an especially lucrative
business given their ability to obtain dollars from the
Commission for the Administration of Official Exchange
(CADIVI) at the overvalued official rate (Bs. 2150/dollar).
Econoffs have heard that Venezuela's largest bank, Banco de
Venezuela (owned by Spanish conglomerate Santander) has been
especially active in moving money offshore since rumors
started circulating that the government was interested in

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expropriating or buying out the Spanish to merge the bank
with the state-owned Treasury Bank. By repatriating profits
and moving equity out via bonds, structured notes, and the
parallel market, Santander can limit its exposure to
Venezuela, while at the same time continuing to reap profits
from the local boom in financial services.


7. (U) Capital flight contributed to Venezuela's USD 9.3
billion capital account deficit for the first quarter of
2007, which represented a 55.5 percent decrease from the USD
6 billion deficit during the first quarter of 2006. The
capital account is the net result of public and private
investment flowing in and out of the country. Coupled with
the USD 3.7 current account surplus (itself having decreased
by 47.7 percent year on year),this led to a drop in foreign
exchange reserves of USD 5.6 billion (reftel).


8. (SBU) Firms are also increasingly shutting down production
to focus on imports, as the overvalued exchange rate and
market inefficiencies (from labor laws, to currency control
regulations, to tax policy) make it far more profitable to
import goods rather than produce them locally. This has led
to a steady and significant decline in Venezuela's industrial
base (despite economic growth in excess of 10 percent during
the past three years) and led to an increasing reliance on
oil sales to fund the country's spending habit (septel).


9. (C) COMMENT: The difficulty of measuring capital flight is
compounded in Venezuela by the unregulated parallel market,
which is the main method by which individuals and firms move
money out of the country, given the stringent currency
control regime. Anecdotal and statistical evidence strongly
points to this growing trend. The decisions taken by
individuals and businesses demonstrate their lack of
confidence in the political and macroeconomic outlook and
their well-honed survival instincts. While it makes sense to
get one's money out of Venezuela, the cumulative effect is
negative by removing money potentially used for investment
and hollowing out a system to the point it may someday
collapse. END COMMENT.

BROWNFIELD