Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07CANBERRA1792
2007-12-21 06:24:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Canberra
Cable title:  

LIBERAL PARTY AT ITS LOWEST EBB

Tags:  PGOV AS 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO7365
PP RUEHPT
DE RUEHBY #1792/01 3550624
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 210624Z DEC 07
FM AMEMBASSY CANBERRA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8769
INFO RUEHBN/AMCONSUL MELBOURNE PRIORITY 4831
RUEHPT/AMCONSUL PERTH PRIORITY 3119
RUEHDN/AMCONSUL SYDNEY PRIORITY 3011
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CANBERRA 001792 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV AS
SUBJECT: LIBERAL PARTY AT ITS LOWEST EBB

REF: A) CANBERRA 1698 B) SYDNEY 131

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CANBERRA 001792

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV AS
SUBJECT: LIBERAL PARTY AT ITS LOWEST EBB

REF: A) CANBERRA 1698 B) SYDNEY 131


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The Liberal Party is in its weakest
position since its formation in 1944. Out of office in every
state and territory, its local branches are in disarray, and
it is divided on the extent to which it should abandon the
Howard Government's policies. The Liberal Party's
post-election analysis showed the main factors for its loss
were the desertion of conservative blue-collar voters
("Howard Battlers") due to former Prime Minister John
Howard's industrial relations reforms ("WorkChoices") and a
perception that the Coalition was not focused on everyday
pocket book issues that mattered to the average Australian.
The Liberal Party has established reviews on its November 24
election loss, the adequacy of the party's constitution and
its financial needs. For the Liberals to become competitive
a major overhaul of the organizational wing of the party is
required. There is even discussion among Coalition MPs over
whether the Liberals and National should merge. END SUMMARY.

A TURN LEFT?


2. (SBU) Some moderate Liberal MPs believe the party shifted
too far to the right under John Howard. ACT Liberal Senator
Gary Humphries believes his party is "conspicuously out of
touch" with present feeling on climate change, Aboriginal
affairs and industrial relations. However, some observers
maintain Malcolm Turnbull cost himself the leadership of the
Liberal Party (ref A) by publicly supporting a national
apology to Aborigines and the ratification of the Kyoto
protocol. Liberals skeptical about a shift to the Left point
out that Rudd adopted many of the Coalition's policies during
the campaign. After former Health Minister Tony Abbott
pulled out of the leadership contest, the majority of
right-wing MPs threw their support behind Brendan Nelson,
effectively delivering him the leadership. Therefore, he is
likely to be attuned to their concerns. Abbott, in
particular, is eager to defend the Howard legacy.

LIBS ASSESS THE DAMAGE


3. (SBU) On December 12, the Federal Executive of the Liberal
Party met in Canberra to discuss the election. Federal
Director Brian Loughnane said post-election polling indicated
"Howard's Battlers" had deserted the Coalition largely due to
WorkChoices and a perception that it was not focused on the
day-to-day issues that concerned them. At the meeting, the

Federal President, Ms Chris McDiven, announced she would
retire in February -- after intense pressure from senior
Party members. The Federal Executive will review the 2007
election loss, the adequacy of the Party's constitution, and
its financial needs. Some Liberals believe it is quite
possible that without reform and strong leadership, the party
could collapse due to its internal dissension.

NEW SOUTH WALES SYMPTOMATIC OF THE STATE BRANCHES


4. (SBU) The Liberal Party's state branches have been plagued
by factional warfare, and a lack of talent and money. It has
not won a state or territory election in almost 10 years.
That the New South Wales (NSW) Labor Government, generally
regarded as incompetent, won the state election in March this
year (ref B) is an indicator of the extent of the division of
the Liberal Party in that state. It is still reeling from
revelations that members distributed a racist flyer during
the federal election campaign.

THE NEED FOR REFORM


5. (SBU) Despite the Liberal Party's constitution, which
provides more autonomy to state branches than the Australian
Labor Party (ALP),Howard and the Liberal federal secretariat
QLabor Party (ALP),Howard and the Liberal federal secretariat
were able to use their influence to calm dissension at the
local level. However, with Howard gone and the Federal
Liberals in opposition, there is potential for greater
problems in the absence of structural and constitutional
reform of the Liberal Party. Loughnane concedes such reform
is necessary. Some Coalition MPs even believe the Liberals
and the National Party should merge, arguing that this would
lead to better allocation of resources and an end to "three
cornered" contests featuring Liberal and National candidates
competing in the same seats. In the Queensland seat of Forde
during the recent election, there was a "leakage" of
preferences from both the Nationals and Liberals to Labor (in
stead of to each other) which played a big part in the ALP
winning the seat.

COMMENT: NELSON NEEDS TO STAND UP


CANBERRA 00001792 002 OF 002



6. (SBU) Without organizational change, the Liberals will
likely not pose a threat to the ALP at any level. Presently,
it is Nelson who is the biggest factor in whether the
Coalition can be competitive at the next election. As the
switch by Labor to Rudd demonstrated, leadership is a key
vote changer. Although he has a tenuous hold on the
leadership currently, Brendan Nelson could come across as a
strong leader if he pursues reform. A big danger for the
Liberals is that its liberal and conservative wings, while
generally agreeing on economic issues, are bitterly divided
on social issues. The Liberals are also in the paradoxical
position of needing to differentiate themselves from the ALP
- a party which has adopted many of the Liberal's key
policies. In a recent Press Club address, Loughnane said
that throughout the campaign the Coalition maintained its
strong lead on the issue of economic management. With the
unions, who had stayed quiet during the campaign, beginning
to assert themselves and push Labor to the left, any economic
turbulence could give the Coalition a glimmer of hope, if it
can get its house in order.

CLUNE