FINAL VOTE COUNT GIVES LABOR NARROWER WIN

UNCLAS CANBERRA 001741

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV AS
SUBJECT: FINAL VOTE COUNT GIVES LABOR NARROWER WIN

REF: CANBERRA 1678


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: With the vote count in several of the
most closely contested seats in the November 24 federal
election almost complete, it appears the Australian Labor
Party (ALP) increased its margin by 24 seats, giving it 84 of
the 150 seats in the House of Representatives - a comfortable
majority but not as large as some observers had anticipated
on election night (reftel). The Liberal-National Party
Coalition is likely to hold 64 seats and independents the
remaining two seats. Once the pre-poll and postal votes were
counted after election day, the Coalition was able to retain
seats some thought it had lost and even win an ALP-held seat
in Western Australia. Although the Senate count is more
difficult to predict, it is likely the composition of the new
76-seat Senate will be 37 for the Coalition, 32 for the ALP,
five for the Green Party, one for Family First and one
independent. At the next election, the Coalition will need
to gain only 11 or 12 seats to win back a majority - at face
value an easier task than what Prime Minister Kevin Rudd had
faced, but in reality more difficult as first term
governments are rarely thrown out in Australia. END SUMMARY.

SEATS STATUS


2. (U) With 93 percent of the vote counted, the ALP is on
track to win 84 seats in the House of Representatives, the
Coalition 64 and independents two. The ALP won the Victorian
seat of McEwen, held by former Tourism Minister Fran Bailey,
by just seven votes. The Liberal Party will ask for a
recount and if it prevails, the ALP would hold only 83 seats.
According to the Australian Electoral Commission, counting
for the House is likely to conclude this week. The Senate
count, because of its complex proportional voting rules,
usually takes longer but most observers believe it will
produce a Senate with the Coalition holding 37 seats, the ALP
32, Greens five, Family First one, and one independent. When
the new Senate begins sitting in July, the Coalition's
majority will end -- but the ALP will need the support of all
five Green senators and either the Family First or
independent senator to pass legislation if the Coalition
opposes it as a block.

NOT AS BAD FOR THE COALITION


3. (U) At the end of election night, some media were
reporting a 6.3 percent swing to the ALP and the seat counts
of the television stations had the ALP winning as many as 88
seats. Over the next two weeks, however, as absentee,
pre-poll and postal votes (up to 20 percent of the total in
some electorates) were counted, the Liberal Party took the
lead in several seats where it had been trailing. Liberal
MPs in the Queensland seats of Dickson, Herbert and Bowman,
who were predicted to lose on election night, will almost
certainly hold on. The Liberal Party will also win the
suburban Perth seat of Swan, previously held by the ALP's Kim
Wilkie. Former Prime Minister John Howard ultimately lost
his seat of Bennelong by over 2,000 votes, a little more than
two percent of the total vote in the electorate. The latest
count gives the ALP 52.85 percent of the two-party preferred
vote, and the Coalition 47.15 - a swing of 5.6 percent to the
ALP. With the closeness of the final vote, the Coalition
only needs a uniform swing of just over two percent at the
next federal election to win the 11 or 12 seats required to
win back a majority.

BUT NOT MUCH SOLACE FOR DIVIDED LIBERALS


4. (SBU) COMMENT: At face value, the Coalition faces an
Q4. (SBU) COMMENT: At face value, the Coalition faces an
easier task to win government than the ALP did. The ALP
needed almost a five percent uniform swing and pick-up of 16
seats. Historically, however, first term governments in
Australia are rarely thrown out of office. Additionally, the
Liberal Party is plagued by divisions at both the state and
federal level. Seeking to reform and strengthen the Party,
Federal Leader Brendan Nelson has announced an inquiry into
the operation of the party's state branches and the president
of the party's organizational wing is being urged to step
aside. On the other hand, there is usually some swing
against a federal government after its first-term, and the
Australian electorate has become more volatile. Knowing that
a small shift in sentiment across a dozen or so marginal
seats could cost the ALP its governing majority, Rudd will be
as determined as ever to hold the political center as he
governs.

MCCALLUM