RUDD STAYS CONSERVATIVE AT LABOR CAMPAIGN LAUNCH

C O N F I D E N T I A L CANBERRA 001642

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/14/2017
TAGS: PGOV AS
SUBJECT: RUDD STAYS CONSERVATIVE AT LABOR CAMPAIGN LAUNCH

REF: CANBERRA 1632

Classified By: Deputy Political Counselor John Crowley, for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).


1. (C/NF) SUMMARY: Ahead by eight points in the polls,
Australian Labor Party (ALP) leader Kevin Rudd protected his
lead at the ALP campaign launch in Brisbane November 14.
Union leaders were kept in the background; past Labor prime
ministers were introduced to the crowd; and Rudd hammered the
themes that have taken the ALP to the brink of election
victory: new leadership, abolishing PM Howard's labor-market
reforms, and ratifying Kyoto. The one area in which he
announced new policy was in education, an issue on which the
Coalition seemed to have gained some traction when it
announced education tax rebates at its launch on Monday
(reftel). The event was upbeat but measured, and focused
almost exclusively on Kevin Rudd, who was introduced by
Queensland Premier Anna Bligh and Deputy ALP leader Julia
Gillard. After the media had criticized Howard for stoking
inflation fears with his AUD 8 billion spending announcement
at the Coalition launch, Rudd did not attempt to match Howard
dollar for dollar, instead claiming that the lower cost of
his campaign promises was proof of his economic conservatism.
Although not inspirational, Rudd's speech bolstered his
credentials as a safe alternative to Howard. END SUMMARY.

ITS ALL ABOUT KEVIN


2. (C/NF) Held in Brisbane, the ALP launch focused on the
virtues of "Kevin" and his "new leadership" and "new ideas"
as compared with the "stale" and "out of touch" Prime
Minister John Howard. This was not surprising since it is
Rudd who almost singlehandedly has given the ALP its strong
position in the polls. Queensland Premier Anna Bligh used
her introductory remarks to emphasize Rudd's roots in
Queensland, where the Labor party must win at least five
seats. Rudd, as was the case at the ALP National Conference
in April, appeared wooden and did not seem to engage the
party faithful as well as Howard. There appeared to be a
lack of emotional connection between Rudd and his audience of

800. Compared to the build-up, his speech was subdued. So
far ahead in the polls, however, Rudd did not need to be
brilliant, just steady -- which he was. Unlike the Coalition
launch, the ALP did not promote its front-bench, which sat
quietly in the front rows (with former Labor leader Kim
Beazley). The unionists, constantly attacked in Coalition
advertising, were hidden away in the audience. In summary,
it was all about "Kevin."

RETURNING TO AUSTRALIAN VALUES AT HOME AND ABROAD


3. (SBU) Rudd promised a return to Australian values,
particularly "the fair go." The "unfair" Howard labor market
reforms, WorkChoices, would be abolished. A Rudd Government
would have its "own voice" in foreign affairs and would
uphold Australian values by working with the international
community on issues such as climate change and poverty. It
would immediately sign the Kyoto agreement. A Rudd
Government would withdraw Australian combat troops from Iraq.


THE ECONOMIC CONSERVATIVE AND EDUCATION VISIONARY


4. (SBU) Rudd was at his most aggressive when condemning the
"reckless spending" of Howard's launch and when pledging to
spend only a quarter of what Howard committed. Noting last
week's interest rate rise, Rudd said that Howard's spending
promises would put further upward pressure on inflation.
Again, Rudd emphasized, he was an "economic conservative."
The majority of Rudd's speech focused on the need for an
QThe majority of Rudd's speech focused on the need for an
"education revolution" to address Australia's long-term
economic challenges such as the rise of China and India. He
announced that an ALP government would ensure every high
school student had access to a computer at school; provide an
extra 450,000 training places to address skills shortages;
and double the number of scholarships in universities. Rudd
also announced a Clean Energy Plan to tackle climate change.

COMMENT: RUDD PADS HIS LEAD


5. (C/NF) Both launches were slick, tightly stage-managed
affairs which went off without embarrassment but the media
reaction seemed to reflect the growing momentum for the ALP.
On Monday, Howard announced what appear to be an interesting
series of measures to address the problems of housing
affordability and the cost of education but the headlines in
the media the following day were about a profligate John
Howard trying to spend his way out of trouble. Kevin Rudd

gave a solid but unremarkable performance in which he
promised nothing particularly innovative, yet the press the
next day featured such headlines as: "Rudd's Smart Nation
Drive" and "Rudd Claims Budget High Ground." For a quarter
of the cost of the Coalition's launch promises, Rudd was able
to boost his economic credentials and reaffirm his image as a
leader with "fresh ideas" thanks to his education proposals.
The fairness issue has been a big plus for Labor in this
election. The public has turned against WorkChoices
essentially because they perceive it to be unfair to the
average worker. The Labor crowd at the launch was
enthusiastic but it seemed they had a hard time knowing when
to react to what was essentially a conservative,
non-traditional Labor message. That said, the biggest
applause of the day was for ending WorkChoices, providing
dental benefits for working families, and withdrawing
Australian combat troops from Iraq.

MCCALLUM