HOWARD GAINS LITTLE AT CAMPAIGN MIDPOINT

C O N F I D E N T I A L CANBERRA 001604

SIPDIS


NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/01/2017
TAGS: PGOV AS
SUBJECT: HOWARD GAINS LITTLE AT CAMPAIGN MIDPOINT

REF: A) CANBERRA 1588 B) CANBERRA 1596 C) CANBERRA

1595 D) CANBERRA

Classified By: Political Counselor James F. Cole for reasons 1.4 (b) an
d (d).


1. (C/NF) SUMMARY: At the halfway point of the campaign,
there is little indication that the Coalition is turning its
position around. Buoyed by a better Newspoll (that cut the
Australian Labor Party's (ALP) lead over the Coalition to
eight points) and a gaffe by the ALP's environment minister,
this week had started well for the Howard Government.
However, the Health Minister's denigration of an asbestos
victim and his late arrival and testy performance at a debate
with his ALP counterpart managed to end whatever momentum the
Coalition might have had. The ALP ended the week with the
release of another "me too with a twist" policy, this time
for the elderly, which it hopes will halt the Coalition's
apparent growing strength among older voters. A poll
released Friday, November 2, showed the Coalition had not
gained ground since the campaign began. While the Government
leads on the issues of who the voters trust to manage the
economy and keep interest rates low, the ALP is still leading
55-45 on the two-party preferred vote. Howard remains
popular but ALP leader Kevin Rudd is polling significantly
higher. The big issue of next week will be another predicted
lifting of interest rates by the Reserve Bank. Both Monday's
Newspoll and today's Nielsen poll indicate that voters will
not blame the Government for the increase but this could
still be the defining issue of the campaign as it goes to the
heart of the Coalition's key political strength - economic
management. END SUMMARY

MIXED WEEK FOR BOTH PARTIES


2. (SBU) After a better-than-expected Newspoll and mix-up on
climate change policy by the ALP's environment spokesman
Peter Garrett (see refs A and C),the Coalition had begun
week three of the six-week campaign with the political wind
at its back. A series of nationally-televised lunch-time
debates between senior Government ministers and their ALP
counterparts began with strong performances by Treasurer
Peter Costello and Shadow Treasurer Wayne Swan (ref D).
However, Health Minister Tony Abbott -- a capable performer
with a sharp tongue but questionable judgment -- managed to
halt the Government's momentum by insulting a
wheelchair-bound asbestos victims-rights campaigner the day
before he arrived late to his nationally-televised debate
with his ALP counterpart (ref B). His testy performance at
and after the debate only served to obscure PM Howard's
announcement of government-funded outpatient clinics around
the country. Meanwhile, the ALP matched the Coalition's
previously-announced AU$4 billion handout to senior citizens.
They changed the policy somewhat but essentially promised
the same.

LABOR KEEPS ITS TEN POINT LEAD


3. (U) While Tuesday's Newspoll was seen as good news for the
Coalition -- since the ALP's lead had halved since the
previous week's poll -- the ALP still had a commanding eight
point lead. Friday's A.C. Nielsen poll was essentially
unchanged from its mid-October poll (eight point ALP lead).
While 51 percent of those surveyed approve of John Howard's
performance, 60 percent approve of Kevin Rudd's. Rudd leads
as preferred prime minister 49-41.

HOWARD TARGETS VICTORIA


4. (C/NF) Howard spent a large part of the week making
announcements in Victoria where the ALP is targeting four
Coalition seats - all with margins of between five and six
percent. Two months ago, both sides believed there would
almost certainly be no seats changing hands in Victoria.
However, with the ALP maintaining its big lead in the polls,
a seat-gain by the ALP in Victoria looked increasingly
possible. Rudd has campaigned in the seats, and now Howard
has been forced to spend more time in Victoria.
Interestingly, the ALP state director for Victoria told
Melbourne poloff that the ALP would likely not win any
additional seats in Victoria. The margins are big; the
Coalition has been making a number of expensive promises; and
the local Liberal members are well-liked. A contact with
ties to Rudd claimed that the Opposition Leader is
campaigning in seats he knows he likely will not win in order
to foster a sense of inevitability about his victory and
force the Coalition to spend resources defending the seats.

NEW SOUTH WALES LOOKS BAD FOR GOVERNMENT


5. (C/NF) In contrast to Victoria, the ALP is ratcheting up
pressure on the Coalition in New South Wales (NSW).
According to Environment Minister Malcolm Turnbull,s
campaign manager, Scott Briggs (protect),recent internal
Liberal Party polling showed that ALP candidates are making a
serious contest of four Sydney seats once considered safe by
the Liberal party: MacArthur, Hughes, Greenway, and North
Sydney, held by Industrial Relations Minister Joe Hockey.
While the Liberal Party incumbents remain ahead in the polls
and should win their elections, the campaign manager
explained, the surge by the ALP is forcing the Liberal Party
to spend extra resources defending relatively safe Liberal
Party seats.


6. (C/NF) Turnbull's campaign manager also conceded that the
ALP looks to be on track to win at least four seats in NSW:
Lindsay, Macquarie, Eden-Monaro, and Dobell. He noted that
Prime Minister's seat of Bennelong, Environment Minster
Malcolm Turnbull,s seat of Wentworth, Local Government
Minister Jim Lloyd,s seat of Robertson, and the National
Party seat of Page, where the incumbent is retiring, remain
the real battleground seats for the election. He conceded
that the ALP is looking very strong in Robertson, where
incumbent minister Lloyd is having trouble convincing voters
that he has successfully represented local interests in
Canberra. In the seat of Bennelong, PM Howard had been
trailing his opponent Maxine McKew in the Liberal party's
internal polls but recent polls are showing that he is
pulling ahead. Turnbull, fighting to hold his marginal
Sydney electorate of Wentworth, had maintained a slight edge
over his opponent in internal polls until last weekend when
newspapers reported he had tried and failed to convince the
Howard cabinet to ratify the Kyoto protocol. Nonetheless,
Briggs is optimistic that Turnbull will barely hold
Wentworth. The National Party remains optimistic it can hold
the seat of Page, according to the chief of staff to the
leader of the NSW National Party. The central coast seat of
Patterson is also shaping up to be a close contest, according
to the campaign manager, but he believes the incumbent
liberal party MP will retain it.

COMMENT: COALITION FRUSTRATED BY FAILURE TO GAIN GROUND


7. (C/NF) The economy is strong. There are no government
scandals. The Prime Minister's approval rating remains above
50 per cent in most polls. With the economy doing so well
and Howard not disliked, what is going on? A recent analysis
of polling data by "The Australian" newspaper pointed out
that Labor is favored by every age group except those over 55
years old. With the Government having been in power for 11
years, younger voters do not remember the hard times under
Labor, and therefore have no basis for comparison. Combine
this with the mood for change and the fact that many blue
collar voters feel betrayed by Howard passing what they
believe to be unfair workplace relations laws and Labor's
consistent lead makes more sense.

MCCALLUM