Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07CAIRO517
2007-02-26 13:18:00
SECRET//NOFORN
Embassy Cairo
Cable title:  

U/S JOSEPH AND EGYPTIAN MINISTER FOR FOREIGN

Tags:  PREL PARM ENRG KNNP EG IR NK 
pdf how-to read a cable
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PP RUEHWEB

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P 261318Z FEB 07
FM AMEMBASSY CAIRO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3762
INFO RUEHGB/AMEMBASSY BAGHDAD PRIORITY 0133
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING PRIORITY 0146
RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW PRIORITY 0359
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO PRIORITY 0134
RUEHUNV/USMISSION UNVIE VIENNA PRIORITY 0091
S E C R E T CAIRO 000517 

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SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/26/2017
TAGS: PREL PARM ENRG KNNP EG IR NK
SUBJECT: U/S JOSEPH AND EGYPTIAN MINISTER FOR FOREIGN
AFFAIRS DISCUSS NUCLEAR ISSUES, IRAN

Classified By: DCM Stuart Jones for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

S E C R E T CAIRO 000517

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/26/2017
TAGS: PREL PARM ENRG KNNP EG IR NK
SUBJECT: U/S JOSEPH AND EGYPTIAN MINISTER FOR FOREIGN
AFFAIRS DISCUSS NUCLEAR ISSUES, IRAN

Classified By: DCM Stuart Jones for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (S) SUMMARY: U/S Joseph met with Egyptian Foreign
Minister Aboul Gheit on February 3. He was accompanied by
A/S Rood, Ambassador, DOE-NNSA Deputy Administrator Will
Tobey, T Senior Advisor Jim Timbie, and econ counselor
(notetaker). U/S Joseph described his recent discussions in
Moscow, including the initiative to combat nuclear terrorism,
and urged Egyptian participation. He also mentioned a second
initiative to provide access to fuel for countries
considering nuclear power that would obviate any need to
acquire fuel enrichment and processing technology. Aboul
Gheit said Egypt has not made a final decision about nuclear
energy but asked for a detailed paper about the U.S.
proposal. The minister stressed that the behavior of
countries surrounding Egypt and "the Iranian situation" will
"frame our decision" on nuclear energy. Aboul Gheit asked
about North Korean and Russian behavior toward Iran and
missile defense. On Iran, Aboul Gheit believes Tehran is
determined "to pursue the process to the end," adding that
they would "not have gone to all this trouble in
confrontation with everyone, unless they were determined to
go through with it." U/S Joseph raised the question of
recent Egyptian Section 3 violations; Aboul Gheit advised
that the issue was best dealt with in military channels. END
SUMMARY.


2. (C) U/S Joseph met with Egyptian Foreign Minister Aboul
Gheit on February 3. He was accompanied by A/S Rood,
Ambassador, DOE-NNSA Deputy Administrator Will Tobey, T
Senior Advisor Jim Timbie, and econ counselor (notetaker).
U/S Joseph opened by saying that the U.S. would like to see
the use of nuclear power expanded beyond industrialized
countries and China and India, to developing nations like
Egypt. He described his discussions in Moscow, including the
initiative to combat nuclear terrorism, in which thirteen
countries are now participating. He described it as similar

in structure to the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI).
Participating countries will commit to taking certain
measures against nuclear terrorism. U/S Joseph explained
that there will be a meeting of participating countries in
Turkey in February, after which the group will open up to
wider international participation. He urged Egypt to
consider participating in the initiative. About Gheit asked
about the other members, but did not comment on the prospect
of Egyptian participation.

Nuclear Energy Initiative
--------------

3. (C) U/S Joseph then described a second initiative, which
we are working with the Russians, to support an expansion of
the use of nuclear energy worldwide. He said the U.S. and
Russia will eventually work with other major nuclear energy
states to put this together, and are talking to countries
that currently play a role in the fuel cycle: uranium
production, enrichment, fuel processing, etc. The goal is to
help countries considering nuclear power acquire reactors, as
well provide access to an attractive fuel supply arrangement
that would obviate any need to acquire fuel enrichment and
processing technology. Beyond that, he told Aboul Gheit,
Russian President Putin is creating a fuel center in Russia
open to participation by other states. This might include
fuel leasing, and takeback of spent fuel for use in advanced
reactors.


4. (C) Aboul Gheit asked about USG arrangements for spent
fuel, and U/S Joseph explained the ongoing development of a
storage site at Yucca Mountain, acknowledging that this
remained an open issue for the U.S. Problems in implementing
the Yucca Mountain program were an impetus for the GNEP
initiative. While GNEP is the future, given the predicted
expansion of nuclear energy worldwide, the U.S. has decided
to work with Russia and other suppliers on a near-term
solution. U/S Joseph explained the proposed fuel supply
arrangement would support increased use of nuclear energy,
thereby improving the international energy situation, and
providing environmental benefits. It would also reduce the
risk of proliferation by stopping the spread of enrichment
and processing technology. Countries would be offered an
attractive alternative, so they would have no need to acquire
fuel cycle technology themselves. In his presentation, U/S
Joseph underlined that the U.S. hopes Egypt will play a
regional leadership role in encouraging and promoting
widespread acceptance of this proposed fuel supply
arrangement.


5. (C) Aboul Gheit said he appreciated this, but added that


Egypt could not have a response until they make their own
decisions about nuclear energy. In that context, he also
cautioned that Egypt has not yet finally decided to go ahead
with nuclear energy. The minister explained that a
Berlin-based Egyptian scientist, who has worked in the German
nuclear industry for many years, has made a strong case
against Egypt's proposed nuclear power program. This
scientist, he said, predicts a significant increase in
nuclear production worldwide, projects that the supply of
uranium will run out in forty years, and says that Egypt will
not recover its nuclear investment before the supply runs
out. In the meantime, Aboul Gheit asked for a detailed paper
about the proposal that he can use in internal GOE
discussions. U/S Joseph said that at this point there is
nothing in writing that can be shared, but that the USG hoped
to consult with Egypt while the proposal is still in the
formative state.


6. (C) The other factor in Egypt's thinking on nuclear
energy, Aboul Gheit said, is the behavior of countries
surrounding Egypt, and "how the Iranian situation will end."
This, he said, will "frame our decision" on nuclear energy.
Alluding to recent opposition calls in the Parliament for
Egypt to begin a nuclear weapons program, Aboul Gheit said
Egypt would "absolutely" be a peaceful nuclear power "unless
I am threatened by more than one player in the region." If
everyone else is going to be "macho," he said, then "we will
have to be macho." "But that is not our intention, nor our
desire. No one wants to waste the resources for things that
will never be used." But, he added, "we have to neutralize
the region. Please help me not to find myself squeezed in a
corner."

Japan and North Korea
--------------

7. (C) Aboul Gheit asked about the status of discussions with
North Korea. U/S Joseph described North Korea as a danger,
but not as complex and dangerous as Iran. He noted, however,
that if the international community fails in North Korea,
then it may affect Japan's thinking on its nuclear program,
which would be a major strategic change in that region. U/S
Joseph said that on her most recent visit to Japan, the
Secretary publicly reaffirmed U.S. security and nuclear

SIPDIS
guarantees for Japan. This, he said, appears to have had a
positive effect on the domestic debate over nuclear weapons
in Japan, and noted the Chinese thanked the Secretary for her
comments.


8. (C) U/S Joseph underlined the importance of the full and
effective implementation of UNSCR 1718 on North Korea. Aboul
Gheit asked about the likelihood of a second series of North
Korean nuclear tests; U/S Joseph replied the US has not seen
any indications that there will be more tests, but that there
is no way to know for certain what the North Koreans will do.
He predicted progress at the next round of the six party
talks, due to the effectiveness to date of the implementation
of the 1718 sanctions. This, U/S Joseph observed, is why it
is so important to impose consequences on Iran for its
actions. He emphasized that if Iran fully suspends its
enrichment program, the U.S. will participate in future
talks.

Iran
--------------

9. (C) Aboul Gheit asked U/S Joseph about Russian behavior
towards Iran. U/S Joseph responded that Russia would
continue to act in what it saw as its national interest, and
that it is important to make clear that Iran must not acquire
nuclear weapons. Right now, he said, Iran is "our greatest
strategic challenge." U/S Joseph expressed his concern about
the visit of the NAM troika, including Egypt's IAEA
Ambassador Ramzi, to Tehran, cautioned that the Iranians
would try to manipulate the visitors, and that he hoped the
ambassador would not participate in any ceremonies or sign
any documents. Aboul Gheit assured him that Ramzy would not.
Aboul Gheit underlined that "we do not want to see nuclear
weapons in Iran," as it would add to an already very
complicated situation.


10. (C) Aboul Gheit asked about IAEA Secretary General
ElBaradei's proposal; U/S Joseph responded that the UNSC
resolution calls for full and verifiable suspension of their
enrichment activity. "If they don't suspend," he commented,
"and there is no reason to believe that they will, we must
think about ratcheting up the pressure so that diplomacy will
work." Aboul Gheit said "embassies" (NFI) in Tehran are
saying that the upper echelon of the mullahs is not happy

with Ahmedinejad, and that the results of recent local
elections have affected his ability to maneuver. In Aboul
Gheit's view Tehran is determined "to pursue the process to
the end." He believed the Iranian goal is to obtain the full
potential to become a nuclear state, and that they would aim
to be in a position to have nuclear weapons within nine
months. He argued that they would "not have gone to all this
trouble in confrontation with everyone, unless they were
determined to go through with it." Aboul Gheit suggested
Ahmedinejad is a "stupid guy" whom the mullahs see as acting
in a way that is harming Iran and their nuclear project. In
Aboul Gheit's view, their criticism of Ahmedinejad is based
on his "clumsiness" in managing the situation, and not the
nuclear program itself.


11. (C) Aboul Gheit also mentioned missile defense. U/S
Joseph explained that the goal of the U.S. program is to
defend against an attack with a handful of missiles, not
hundreds, and in that context it was not aimed at the
Russians, but at other actors, including, for example, Iran.
He described Russian concerns as based on Cold War-era
thinking. Interceptors in Poland, for example, would counter
a few missiles from Iran, but not the hundreds that the
Russians still have deployed under the terms of the Treaty of
Moscow. He noted that there are reports that Iran is working
on a long range missile, with a 2500 km range, with North
Korea.

Section Three Violations
--------------

12. (S/NF) U/S Joseph raised the question of Egypt's recent
Section (3) violation, and the notification the
Administration has made to Congress. He commented that these
notifications must take place when there has been a
"substantial end-use violation." He said there have been
several recent cases in Egypt, and noted particularly the
Bodyguard testing issue. He described USG concerns as
important, and said the incident "will affect the
Congressional debate" over military assistance to Egypt. He
emphasized that the USG needs the test information we have
requested, and that "we need to work together" on this issue.



13. (S) Aboul Gheit responded that he understood the issue
has been discussed between the U.S. and Egyptian military
establishments. He cited the letter that Minister of Defense
Field Marshall Tantawi sent, and described it as "an answer
to the issue." He suggested that the way forward would be
for the two militaries to "get in touch." Aboul Gheit
advised the U.S. side to "sit with the Egyptian military and
explain to them all the details of the arrangements and
understandings that we are committed to and that we are bound
to so that we do not annoy you." He pointed to the long
history of the program, and Tantawi's equally long
involvement in it.
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