SHURA COUNCIL ELECTIONS OVERVIEW

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CAIRO 001717

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NSC FOR WATERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/07/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM KISL EG
SUBJECT: SHURA COUNCIL ELECTIONS OVERVIEW

REF: A. CAIRO 1408


B. CAIRO 1128

Classified By: Counselor for Economic and Political Affairs,
Catherine Hill-Herndon, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Elections for one-third of the seats in
Egypt's Shura Council (upper parliamentary chamber) will be
held on June 11, with run-offs to be conducted as needed on
June 18. With minimal participation by legal opposition
parties, attention is focused on the 19 races in which
National Democratic Party (NDP) and Muslim Brotherhood (MB)
candidates are competing. As the elections loom, the
government has raised pressure on the MB, with a clear focus
on damaging the MB's campaign effort by arresting hundreds of
campaign workers and supporters and three MB candidates, and
filing legal petitions to have the MB candidates barred from
the election. The embryonic Supreme Electoral Commission
(SEC),charged with electoral oversight, is widely viewed as
not up to the task of robustly supervising the elections, and
the Ministry of Interior is expected to play a central role
on elections day. Streets are strewn with banners lauding
various candidates, but the Egyptian public thus far seems to
be characteristically apathetic and unenthused. The
combination of weak independent electoral oversight, likely
government interference and manipulation of results, and the
small number of opposition and MB candidates running, points
to a likely resounding NDP "victory." We see little prospect
that the elections will mark a significant advance for
Egyptian democracy. End summary.

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WHO IS RUNNING? WHERE?
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2. (SBU) 88 seats of the 264-member Shura Council are up for
election on June 11, and an additional 44 members will be
appointed by President Hosni Mubarak, in accordance with the
constitutional requirement that fifty-percent of the total
membership of the Council be renewed, either by election of
appointment, every three years. Half of the elected seats
are "workers and farmers seats" and half are "professionals"
seats. Prospective candidates submitted their nominations to
the Supreme Electoral Commission (SEC) between May 17-20; on
May 29, the SEC announced the final roster of 609 candidates
running in 88 races in 67 constituencies spanning 24 Egyptian
governorates. The races are concentrated in Cairo (6 seats),
the Nile Delta provinces of Sharqiya (5 seats),Gharbiya (5
seats),Dakhaliya (5 seats),Beheira (4 seats),Menoufiyah (4
seats),and Minya (4 seats),Qalubiyah (3 seats),and Fayoum
(3 seats). Due to an SEC ruling that in constituencies where
only one candidate is nominated, no elections will be held
and the sole candidate will automatically be declared the
winner, eleven NDP candidates have already won their Shura
seats uncontested. There are 598 candidates contesting the
remaining 77 seats in 57 constituencies. (Note: The large
Shura districts typically encompass three or more
parliamentary districts. End note).


3. (C) The NDP is fielding a total of 108 candidates
(including one woman) in the elections (11 of whom have, as
noted, already won) with the result that in the 77 remaining
races, approximately 40 of the 97 official NDP candidates
will compete against each other, an unprecedented development
reflecting weak party discipline. Moreover, in numerous
races, ruling party members not selected as the official NDP
candidate are running as independents, against the NDP
candidate (this is a typical phenomenon in Egyptian
elections: if an NDP-affiliated "independent" wins the
election, he normally "rejoins" the party and claims the seat
for the NDP.) The NDP's electoral platform, officially
released on June 3 and published as a 4-page supplement in
several government newspapers, states that it is based on
Mubarak's platform in the 2005 presidential elections, and
has four pillars - providing new job opportunities and
fighting unemployment; improving incomes and the standard of
living for all Egyptians; supporting freedom and democracy,
and; maintaining the safety and security of Egypt. The NDP's
election slogans are "We Promised ... and We Delivered" and
"We Have Achieved So Much, and Will Achieve Much More in the
Future!"


4. (C) Ayman Nour's Ghad Party announced in April its intent
to run 26 candidates, however, the party was able to register
only four candidates with the SEC. Ghad president Ehab Al
Khouly told poloff that when the 26 Ghad candidates attempted
to register, they were informed by SEC representatives that
Ghad was not recognized as a legal Egyptian political party,
and thus they could not compete under Ghad's name. According
to Khouly, four Ghad candidates therefore opted to run as

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INDEPENDENTS. HOWEVER, IT APPEARS THAT THE SEC IS NOW
VIEWING THEM AS OFFICIAL GHAD CANDIDATES. FOLLOWING DIVISIVE
INTERNAL DEBATES, THE SOCIALIST TAGGAMU PARTY DECIDED TO RUN
THREE CANDIDATES, WHILE FADED GRAND DAME OF THE OPPOSITION,
AL WAFD PARTY, CHOSE NOT TO PARTICIPATE DUE TO (AS
CHARACTERIZED BY WAFD CHAIRMAN MAHMOUD ABAZA),THERE BEING
"NO GUARANTEES FOR FAIR ELECTIONS ... SINCE THE
CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS CANCELED FULL JUDICIAL OVERSIGHT OF
ELECTIONS". HOWEVER, THE FORMER CHAIRMAN OF WAFD, NO'MAN
GOMAA, DISGRACED IN A VIOLENT INTRA-PARTY POWER STRUGGLE AND
EXPELLED FROM THE GROUP IN 2006, HAS SUCCESSFULLY REGISTERED
13 CANDIDATES LOYAL TO HIM TO RUN AS AL WAFD CANDIDATES IN
THE ELECTION. THE ARAB SOCIALIST PARTY HAS PUT FORWARD 8
CANDIDATES. SEVERAL OTHER MINUSCULE PARTIES ARE RUNNING 1 OR
2 CANDIDATES, AND THE TAKAFUL ("SYNERGY") PARTY HAS
REGISTERED 25 CANDIDATES; THE LATTER GROUPS ALL ARE
ESSENTIALLY SHAM "OPPOSITION" PARTIES RUMORED TO BE BACKED BY
THE GOVERNMENT. SEVERAL HUNDRED INDEPENDENTS, EITHER
AFFILIATED WITH THE NDP OR "TRUE" INDEPENDENTS, HAVE ALSO
REGISTERED TO RUN.

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MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD GOES WHERE IT
HAS NEVER GONE BEFORE ...
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5. (C) THE MB, WHICH IN MID-APRIL ANNOUNCED ITS INTENT TO RUN
20 SHURA CANDIDATES (REF B),REGISTERED (WITH SOME REPORTED
DIFFICULTY) 19 CANDIDATES WHO ARE DE FACTO MB, BUT WHO WILL
OFFICIALLY CONTEST THE ELECTIONS AS "INDEPENDENTS." THIS IS
THE FIRST TIME THAT THE MB HAS RUN IN SHURA COUNCIL
ELECTIONS. NO MB CANDIDATES ARE RUNNING IN CAIRO OR
ALEXANDRIA; RATHER, THE GROUP IS FOCUSING ON RACES IN THE
NILE DELTA AREA, A TRADITIONAL MB STRONG-HOLD. AS THE SHURA
ELECTIONS NEAR, THE GOVERNMENT HAS RAISED THE PRESSURE ON THE
MB, WITH A CLEAR FOCUS ON DAMAGING THE GROUP'S CAMPAIGN
EFFORT. IN ADDITION TO THE REPORTED ARRESTS OF HUNDREDS OF
MB CAMPAIGN WORKERS AND SUPPORTERS, THREE MB SHURA CANDIDATES
(RUNNING IN DAKHALIYA, ZAGAZIG, AND FAYOUM) WERE ARRESTED IN
THE PAST WEEK; TWO REPORTEDLY REMAIN IN DETENTION. ON JUNE
6, AT A CAMPAIGN MARCH FOR AN MB CANDIDATE IN DAMIETTA, THE
CANDIDATE AND HIS SUPPORTERS WERE ALLEGEDLY BEATEN BY
EGYPTIAN SECURITY FORCES. ACCORDING TO A STATEMENT POSTED ON
THE MB'S WEBSITE, 335 MB MEMBERS HAVE BEEN DETAINED IN THE
PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, INCLUDING A BUSLOAD OF SUPPORTERS OF ONE
MB CANDIDATE EN ROUTE TO A SPEECH, AND OTHERS FOR HANGING
CAMPAIGN POSTERS FOR MB CANDIDATES WHICH INCLUDE "ISLAMIC
MESSAGES."


6. (C) UNDER THE RECENT CHANGES TO THE POLITICAL RIGHTS LAW
(REF A),THE USE OF RELIGIOUS SLOGANS AND SYMBOLS, AS WELL AS
"THE CARRYING OUT OF ELECTORAL CAMPAIGN ACTIVITIES OF A
RELIGIOUS REFERENCE OR NATURE" ARE NOW BANNED, A CLEAR GOE
EFFORT TO PREVENT THE MB FROM USING ITS DECADES-OLD
RECOGNIZABLE SLOGAN, "ISLAM IS THE SOLUTION." EGYPTIAN MEDIA
REPORTS HAVE ASSERTED THAT SOME MB CANDIDATES HAVE THUS OPTED
TO USE THE SLOGAN "TOGETHER FOR REFORM"; EMBOFFS HAVE NOT YET
SEEN ANY POSTERS USING SOLELY THAT SLOGAN. ON THE MB'S
WEBSITE, THE ORGANIZATION'S ELECTORAL PLATFORM APPEARS UNDER
A LOGO SHOWING BOTH THE SLOGANS "ISLAM IS THE SOLUTION" AND
"TOGETHER FOR REFORM." SEPTEL REPORT TO FOLLOW ON THE MB'S
RECENTLY UNVEILED ELECTORAL PLATFORM.


7. (C) IN A JUNE 6 MEETING WITH THE DEPUTY OF THE NDP'S
SECRETARY FOR ORGANIZATION, THE NDP OFFICIAL TOLD POLOFF THAT

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THE NDPS LEADERSHIP EXPECTS THE MB TO WIN "AT LEAST" 10
SHURA COUNCIL SEATS. HE NOTED THAT "IT IS DIFFICULT FOR THE
NDP TO COMPETE AGAINST SUCH AN ORGANIZED GROUP, THAT HAS SUCH
OBEDIENT AND ENTHUSIASTIC FOLLOWERS," THEREFORE, "THE
GOVERNMENT IS TAKING A MORE ASSERTIVE, TOUGH STANCE AGAINST
THE MB IN THE SHURA ELECTIONS THAN IN THE 2005 PARLIAMENTARY
ELECTIONS, WHEN WE FELT PRESSURED BY THE U.S. AND EUROPE, AND
SO WERE AFRAID TO TEAR DOWN THE MB'S POSTERS." THE NDP
OFFICIAL CONFIRMED THAT NDP SECRETARY-GENERAL SAFWAT EL
SHERIF FILED A REQUEST WITH THE SUPREME ELECTORAL COMMISSION
ON JUNE 5, REQUESTING THAT 17 MB CANDIDATES BE DROPPED FROM
THE BALLOT. ARGUING THAT THE MB CANDIDATES ARE IN VIOLATION
OF THE CONSTITUTION AND THE POLITICAL RIGHTS LAW, SHERIF
PROVIDED THE SEC WITH PRINTOUTS OF THE MB'S CANDIDATE LISTS
(WHICH WERE POSTED ON THE GROUP'S WEBSITE) AND MB ELECTIONS
MATERIAL THAT INCLUDES "PHRASES WITH A RELIGIOUS REFERENCE."
IT IS UNCLEAR WHEN THE SEC WILL RULE ON SHERIF'S PETITION.



8. (SBU) ON JUNE 5, THE MB'S PARLIAMENTARY BLOC RELEASED A
STATEMENT CONDEMNING THE "VIOLATIONS AGAINST MB CANDIDATES
AND SUPPORTERS IN THE SHURA COUNCIL ELECTIONS," ASSERTING,
"THESE ELECTIONS ARE THE FIRST PRACTICAL APPLICATION OF THE
NOTORIOUS CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS .... THESE LAWS
PRACTICALLY LEGALIZE OPPRESSING THE OPPOSITION AND RIGGING

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the elections." The statement continues, "When electoral
procedures began, the Interior Ministry started to run these
elections using its familiar and well-known methods -
candidates were prevented from reaching committees that
receive nomination papers, bailiffs were beaten, lawyers were
threatened and candidates were beaten .... Then, the Interior
Ministry launched its oppressive campaign against those who
managed to lodge their nomination papers, harassing them and
hunting them down, arresting them in police stations and
fabricating charges against their supporters. MB MP's view
as unreasonable and unacceptable the government's oppressive
practice of monopolizing all state services in a sharp,
aggressive and violent confrontation with 19 MB candidates
who represent the Egyptian people's aspirations towards
democracy and reform, and warn that this may lead to the
spread of the culture of violence and risking the future of
this homeland. The parliamentary bloc calls for abiding by
the rule of law, fully respecting court rulings, and
protecting human rights and dignity."

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SUPREME ELECTORAL COMMISSION AND
ELECTIONS MONITORS
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9. (SBU) According to a variety of contacts, including NDP
officials, the embryonic structure of the newly-created
11-member Supreme Electoral Commission (SEC),officially
tasked with electoral oversight, is not up to robustly
supervising the elections. All thus expect the Ministry of
Interior to play a central role on June 11. In the brief
period since its creation in mid-May, the SEC has issued a
set of regulations regarding the conduct of the Shura
elections, including: a campaign spending limit of 100,000 LE
(roughly 17,500 USD),banning election bribes and the use of
"public facilities" (e.g., universities, mosques) for
campaigning purposes. The SEC has stated that it will at a
minimum, strike from the ballot any names of candidates in
violation of the regulations, and the candidates could also
be fined and/or imprisoned.


10. (SBU) USAID is funding two coalitions of Egyptian NGOs
(under the leadership of the Naqib Center and the Egyptian
Association to Support Democracy) to monitor the elections.
MEPI funding to the Ibn Khaldun Center is supporting a third
monitoring coalition. Our NGO partners estimate that they
will field approximately 6,000 monitors on election day, and
other groups are also undertaking monitoring efforts. USAID
has also funded two NGO networks to monitor voter
registration and related issues in the run-up to the
election. Emboffs will also deploy in Cairo, Alexandria, and
throughout the Nile Delta region, to observe the elections.

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COMMENT
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11. (C) The streets of Cairo and Alexandria are strewn with
banners lauding various candidates, but the Egyptian public
thus far seems to be characteristically apathetic and
unenthused. In this first electoral match-up between the NDP
and MB for a national-level body since the 2005 parliamentary
elections, the issue of voter turnout will be a key
indicator of each group's current ability to mobilize its
base. In the face the government's intense targeting of the
MB's campaign and the anticipated use of security forces on
election day, it will be particularly notable if MB voters
still go to the polls in large numbers. Across Egypt, ballot
box stuffing, vote buying and other electoral fraud is likely
to occur. In districts where the MB is running, we cannot
rule out the possibility that we will witness a recurrence of
the elections day violence that occurred in the 2005
parliamentary elections. Overall, the combination of weak
independent electoral oversight, likely government
interference and manipulation of results, and the small
number of opposition and MB candidates running, points to a
likely resounding NDP "victory." We see little prospect that
the June 11 elections will mark a significant advance for
Egyptian democracy.
RICCIARDONE