LEBANON: EGYPTIAN INFLUENCE ON SOUTH AFRICA AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L CAIRO 001491

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR MARCHESE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/22/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV UNSC EG LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: EGYPTIAN INFLUENCE ON SOUTH AFRICA AND
INDONESIA DOUBTFUL

REF: STATE 68989

Classified by Minister Counselor for Economic and Political
Affairs, William R. Stewart, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Poloffs delivered reftel demarche to MFA Cabinet Staff
Member Nazih Al Negeiry on May 21, seeking Egyptian help in
pressing South Africa and Indonesia to support a UN Security
Council Chapter VII-based tribunal for Lebanon. Negeiry said
that Indonesia may abstain on a UNSC vote, and that Egypt had
little influence over South Africa due to competition for
leadership on the continent. (Note: During a recent visit
to Egypt by U.S Special Envoy for Kosovo envoy, and former
Ambassador to Cairo, Frank Wisner, FM Aboul Gheit noted the
complex relationship between Egypt and South Africa. End
note). However, Negeiry understood that PM Seniora's
Political Counselor in a recent meeting in New York with
South Africa's Permrep succeeded in gaining Pretoria's
support for UNSC action. Nevertheless, after promising to
convey the U.S. request to his Minister, Negeiry said - based
on reports from New York - that China might be problematic on
the Chapter VII resolution since it is concerned about the
precedent that such a resolution would set. Negeiry believed
Russia provided the Secretary, during her latest Moscow
visit, with an assurance that it would not veto the tribunal
resolution.


2. (C) Negeiry pointed to the Qatari role as pivotal in
current regional discussions on Lebanon, saying that he
believed a senior emissary from Doha was expected in Damascus
(possibly as early as May 22) to press Syria to permit its
proxies in Beirut to convoke Parliament and finalize a
Lebanese tribunal, vice a Chapter VII UNSC one. Negeiry
suggested that this was Egypt's preferred outcome, as well,
but acknowledged a low probability of success in obtaining
agreement by Damascus. Negeiry said that MFA's general
perception is that the tribunal process is being rushed. He
added that GOE slowness vis-a-vis the tribunal and Lebanon in
general was partially the result of the temporary absence of
the well-connected Egyptian ambassador in Beirut, as well as
ongoing discussions between the MFA and the presidency on the
best way forward.


3. (C) Turning to the eruption of violence in Tripoli
between the LAF and a Palestinian militant group, as well as
the May 21 bombing in a Christian neighborhood of Beirut,
Negeiry said Syria had "many levers" to play with in Lebanon.
On the possibility of a second Lebanese government appointed
by President Lahoud, Negeiry said that FM Aboul Gheit had
told the visiting Lebanese Justice Minister last week that
Egypt would not recognize a parallel government. The only
ones who would support it, he said, were Iran and Syria.
Negeiry finished by noting that Terje Larsen was in town to
discuss Lebanon with President Mubarak and Aboul Gheit on May

22. Likewise, Negeiry confirmed that EU Envoy Solana would
be in Cairo on May 23-24 and would also discuss Lebanon.
RICCIARDONE