SCENESETTER FOR CODEL INHOFE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BUJUMBURA 000798

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/C

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OVIP PINR PGOV PREL OREP EAID MASS MARR BY
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR CODEL INHOFE


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Your visit to Burundi comes at a critical
time in the country's modern political history. After a
summer marked by political infighting and a virtual
legislative standstill, President Nkurunziza appointed a new
government and displayed some willingness to tackle Burundi's
significant political challenges. Negotiations between the
Government of Burundi (GOB) and the lone remaining rebel
group, the PALIPEHUTU-FNL (FNL),are set to resume amid a
violent fracturing of the rebel group. After years of
devastating civil war, the GOB hopes to relinquish its
dependence on post-conflict assistance and develop its
economy. Endemic corruption and a volatile political
environment continue to hamper efforts to make economic
progress and ensure stability.


2. (SBU) The GOB, with significant U.S., British, French,
and African Union (AU) support, is attempting to establish a
leadership role for itself in Africa by participating as a
Troop Contributing Country to the African Union Mission to
Somalia (AMISOM). However, cumulative deployment delays may
put at risk Burundi's reputation as a reliable international
partner. It would be helpful if the CODEL would reinforce
the Embassy's message that Burundi needs to deploy its
promised peace-keepers immediately. END SUMMARY.


The Peace Process Stalled
--------------


3. (SBU) In September 2006, President Nkurunziza's
government signed a cease-fire agreement with the FNL, the
sole remaining rebel group. A critical obstacle to
completing the peace process is the recent formation of a
group of some 2,000 so-called FNL "dissidents," who claim to
be weary of conflict and ready to implement the cease-fire
accords; there is some question as to whether all of these
troops are actual FNL members. The dissidents are strongly
opposed by forces loyal to FNL leader Agathon Rwasa, who
appears to be jockeying for position in the run-up to 2010
elections. In September, pro-Rwasa troops attacked a
contingent of dissident soldiers near the capital of
Bujumbura, leaving at least 20 dead. The dissidents are
currently located in two camps north of Bujumbura under the
protection of the GOB and the AU. The government and
international community are discussing ways to move the
process forward without prompting Rwasa to resume full-scale
guerrilla war.


Political Stalemate
--------------


4. (SBU) A political stalemate plagued the Burundi National
Assembly over the summer, with the President's fractured
National Council for the Defense of Democracy-Forces for the
Defense of Democracy (CNDD-FDD) unable to unite to pass
legislation. However, under sustained pressure from the
media, political parties and the international community, the
President reached out to the opposition at the end of August
to reestablish a dialogue and encourage all parties to work
together for the people of Burundi. In November the
controversial First Vice President resigned and the President
reshuffled his cabinet to allot more ministerial positions to
opposition parties. There is some optimism that this new
political configuration might be able to move the political
agenda forward. The GOB recently nominated Minister of
External Relations (the equivalent of Secretary of State)
Antoinette Batumubwira to be the next President of the
African Union.


AMISOM Deployment Delays
--------------


5. (SBU) Burundi has pledged to support the AMISOM mission
with two battalions of roughly 850 soldiers each. While the
AU welcomed this offer from the newly-democratic Burundi, the
deployment was initially delayed by the GOB's inability to
find financing for equipment and training. The United States
and other international partners agreed to provide equipment
and training, including a pre-deployment program financed
with African Contingency Operations Training and Assistance
(ACOTA) funds.

BUJUMBURA 00000798 002 OF 003




6. (SBU) Increased and changing demands from the Forces de
Defense National (FDN - the Army),however, have further
delayed the planned November 15 deployment. It would be
helpful for the CODEL to deliver the strong message that
while the U.S. is pleased with Burundi's commitment to
AMISOM, its determination to play a leadership role in the
region, and the deepening bilateral ties between our two
countries, the U.S. strongly urges Burundi to deploy its
troops to Somalia immediately. Prior delays notwithstanding,
further delays threaten to send an unwanted signal that
Burundi may not be ready to act as a reliable international
partner.


Regional Security
--------------


7. (SBU) Burundi is a regional partner in the U.S.-financed
and facilitated Tripartite Plus Joint Commission (Tripartite
Plus),a group that also includes the governments of the
Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC),Rwanda, and Uganda. The
primary goal of the Tripartite Plus is to reduce the threat
of negative forces in the region, primarily in eastern DRC.
The GOB values the Tripartite Plus as an essential forum
where member governments can voice security concerns and
discuss solutions to help ease regional tensions. A
Tripartite Plus Heads of State Summit will take place in
Addis Ababa on December fifth to take advantage of the
momentum of the November Nairobi Agreement between Rwanda and
the DRC that calls for a cooperative military plan of action
to eliminate negative forces in eastern DRC.


Economic and Social Background
--------------


8. (SBU) Burundi has the second highest population density
in Sub-Saharan Africa, and its 7.4 million people live in an
area roughly the size of Maryland. The population is made up
of three major ethnic groups - Hutu, Tutsi, and Twa (formerly
known as Pygmy). Although Hutus make up the majority of the
population (84 percent),Tutsis (15 percent) have been
politically and economically dominant since Belgian colonial
rule. A decade-long civil war, the most recent manifestation
of inter-ethnic violence since independence in 1962, began in
1993 and displaced approximately one million Burundians and
left an estimated 300,000 dead.


9. (SBU) Burundi is one of the poorest countries in the
world. Per capita GDP is approximately $119, and Burundi
recently ranked 169 out of 177 on the UN's Human Development
index. The mainstay of the Burundian economy is agriculture
which accounts for almost half of GDP. Approximately 90
percent of the labor force is dependent on subsistence
farming, which has been complicated by the large number of
refugee returns in 2007 and a rapidly increasing population
competing for a limited amount of available land. The main
cash crop is coffee, accounting for more than half of exports
earnings; other principal exports include tea, sugar and raw
cotton. Kirundi is Burundi's primary language; French and
Kiswahili are also widely spoken.

Bilateral Economic Relations
--------------


10. (SBU) After Burundi's 2005 democratic elections, the
U.S. lifted sanctions on Burundi pursuant to Section 508 of
the Foreign Operations Appropriations Act, thus paving the
way for the resumption of direct assistance. Burundi also
became eligible for tariff preferences under the African
Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) in December 2005. The
African Development Foundation (ADF) has signed an agreement
to start operations here and the Overseas Private Investment
Corporation (OPIC) has also expressed an interest in
operating in Burundi. The U.S. is one of the country's main
donors, with over $46 million in assistance in FY07 and is
the single largest donor to the UNHCR and World Food Program
in Burundi.


11. (SBU) In 2006 and 2007, International Military Education
and Training (IMET) monies funded two seminars on
civil-military relations for 120 leaders in civil society and

BUJUMBURA 00000798 003 OF 003


the security sector, and an English lab and language classes
for commissioned officers and NCOs at the army's training
center, ISCAM. The Defense Minister hopes this will better
equip the Army to participate in regional peacekeeping
missions and qualify individual officers for professional
military training opportunities in the U.S. Future IMET
funds would be used for training in Peacekeeping Operations
and the Rule of Law.


USAID
--------------


12. (SBU) The USAID assistance program addresses three areas
critical to Burundi's transition from a post-conflict country
to a developing one: developing economic growth by
diversifying rural income through agribusiness; improving
maternal-child health by educating the public on good hygiene
and nutrition; and promoting democracy and good governance.
Further, with a rapidly growing population, the return of
tens of thousands of refugees, and its position as the second
most densely populated country in sub-Saharan Africa, land
ownership and land availability will become an increasingly
difficult challenge for Burundi. Accordingly, USAID
assistance is also focused on finding a resolution to the
difficult question of land tenure.

Health and HIV/AIDS
--------------


13. (SBU) Despite the fact that Burundi's HIV/AIDS problem
is as serious as that of its neighbors (six percent of the
population is HIV positive),Burundi is not a PEPFAR country.
Although the U.S. Mission has limited funds to support
anti-HIV/AIDS programs and HIV/AIDS education, it supports
HIV/AIDS prevention, care and support services in Bujumbura
and in Kirundo Province. The AIDS problem facing the
military is being addressed through Defense HIV/AIDS
Prevention Program (DHAPP) funding administered through the
DAO. A multi-year program is in place to educate, test, and
counsel AIDS-susceptible military members and their families.



Mission Staffing
--------------


14. (SBU) The U.S. Mission in Burundi is staffed by 15
direct-hire American employees and six Marines; a two-person
Defense Attach Office; one USAID American personal services
contractor and 103 locally engaged staff. The Mission is a
high hardship, 20% danger pay post and employees operate
under strict travel restrictions. Despite these limitations,
the security situation has improved sufficiently that in June
2006, the Department of State authorized adult dependents to
return to post and is considering a return to fully
accompanied status.
MOLLER