Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07BUJUMBURA38
2007-02-03 11:41:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Bujumbura
Cable title:  

BURUNDI: IS RADJABU'S POLITICAL FATE HANGING IN

Tags:  PREL PGOV MARR PINR BY SA 
pdf how-to read a cable
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C O N F I D E N T I A L BUJUMBURA 000038 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/C

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/24/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR PINR BY SA
SUBJECT: BURUNDI: IS RADJABU'S POLITICAL FATE HANGING IN
THE BALANCE?

REF: A. BUJUMBURA 32

B. PRETORIA 254

Classified By: Ambassador Patricia Moller for Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D.)

C O N F I D E N T I A L BUJUMBURA 000038

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/C

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/24/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR PINR BY SA
SUBJECT: BURUNDI: IS RADJABU'S POLITICAL FATE HANGING IN
THE BALANCE?

REF: A. BUJUMBURA 32

B. PRETORIA 254

Classified By: Ambassador Patricia Moller for Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D.)


1. (C) Summary: The power struggle between Burundian
strongman Hussein Radjabu and the country's President
continues to dominate headlines, as government journalists
report that the President's office has barred one of his
key allies, Communications Minister Ramadhan Karenga, from
entering government radio and television studios. The
South African Embassy denied that Radjabu had requested
asylum in South Africa, but its diplomats provided few
specifics of its discussions with Radjabu during his
overnight stay in the South African Embassy. The
CNDD-FDD's spokesperson suggested that the party might seek
to advance the date of its upcoming party conference;
observers are divided on whether Radjabu can maintain
control of the party. Some observers, and CNDD-FDD members
themselves, have suggested that many believe that the
party's continued unity, and indeed its survival, is key to
Burundi's continued stability; this concern may cause many
to continue to support Radjabu, albeit grudgingly, rather
than risk a period of political instability. End
Summary.


2. (C) A day after he left the South African Embassy,
ruling CNDD-FDD party head Hussein Radjabu is coming under
increasing pressure in political circles. CNDD-FDD
spokesperson Evariste Nsabiyumva, who is also the head of
the party's group of Parliamentarians, told journalists in
January 23 that the party's planned extraordinary session,
now planned for February 24, could be changed to an earlier
date. Radjabu has advocated holding the conference as
scheduled. An advisor to the First Vice President's office
told an Embassy staffer privately that the session could be
held as early as February 3 or 4. Nsabiyumva also told
reporters that, although a few members of the party had
petitioned President Nkurunziza to act as a mediator
between CNDD-FDD members, he did not believe that the

opinions of those members would alter the party's
objectives.


3. (U) Radjabu, who has come under increasing criticism
from party members, gave an interview to journalists at the
government-owned Burundian National Radio and Television
(RTNB),according to reporters there. However, the
journalists told another Embassy staffer, himself a former
journalist, that the President's office ordered RTNB not to
broadcast any statements from Radjabu. The RTNB
journalists added that the President's office also ordered
them not to allow Minister of Communications Ramadhan
Karenga, a Radjabu ally, onto the RTNB compound.

Radjabu's Sojourn at the Embassy
--------------


4. (C) The South African Charge, Zabantu Ngcobo (protect),
confirmed on January 23 that Radjabu did not ask South
Africa for asylum during his overnight stay at South
Africa's Embassy in Bujumbura on January 22. The Charge
indicated that Radjabu contacted the Embassy on the morning
of January 22, saying that he wished to provide the Charge
a briefing of political developments. Radjabu and an
advisor arrived at the Embassy shortly before noon;
Minister of Communications Karenga joined him later.
Radjabu talked for several hours, but the Charge
characterized much of what he said as non-substantive. The
session continued so long, said the Charge, that she
eventually ordered out for sandwiches for the group.
(Comment: Ms. Ngcobo, a close Embassy contact who is
normally very forthcoming, carefully avoided providing any
details of Radjabu's commentary, nor did she confirm
whether he had made any specific requests for assistance.
Her unusual reticence suggests that South Africa is still
developing its own position on the Burundian political
crisis, and may be reviewing what if anything it can do to
influence the situation. End Comment.)


5. (U) Finally, continued Ms. Ngcobo, Radjabu and his
party prepared to leave, but as they were preparing to
enter their vehicles, Radjabu received a flurry of
telephone calls. He told Ms. Ngcobo that he had just
learned of a change in his bodyguards, and that he feared
for his personal safety. He then reentered the Embassy,
along with one of his advisors, and announced that he
could not depart until he received guarantees of security.



6. (C) The Charge likened Radjabu's mood, and that of his
colleagues, to that commonly found at a traditional African
wake, a very somber occasion at which typically little
conversation takes place. Radjabu and his advisor remained
together in one room, speaking little, rarely even looking
at one another. She periodically joined them in their
vigil, sometimes exchanging pleasantries but rarely
communicating directly with her guests. Radjabu and his
colleague turned in early, at about nine o'clock, sleeping
on mattresses which Embassy staffers provided.


7. (C) Following a telephone call providing assurances for
his personal safety, Radjabu left the Embassy on Tuesday
morning, January 23, saying that he planned to return to
his home. The Charge did not indicate whether her
government had intervened either with the Burundian
government or with Radjabu himself to effect his departure.

What Next?
--------------


8. (C) South Africa's Charge opined that, although many of
the party's rank and file fervently oppose Radjabu and his
policies, many of the party's leadership remain
supportive. Radjabu's ability to retain his position, she
suggested, will depend on whether party members will turn
out en masse to vote during the party conference. Ms.
Ngcobo believed that senior leadership would seek to exert
strong pressure on less senior members to vote for Radjabu,
or simply to not vote at all. Similarly, she believed that
National Assembly Speaker Immaculee Nahayo would support
Radjabu, despite allegations that he may have been
complicit in her late husband's sudden death.

Neighbors Watch with Concern
--------------


9. (C) Uganda's Ambassador to Burundi, in a visit with the
Ambassador on January 24, indicated that following a call
from Congolese president Kabila, his President had called
President Nkurunziza to express concern about events in
Burundi and their possible impact on regional stability.
In response, Nkurunziza characterized the events as a
political crisis, but one that his government could
successfully manage without a return to violence.

Comment
--------------


10. (C) As rumors about Radjabu's political future
continue to swirl around the capital, opinion is divided as
to whether he can retain a leadership position in the
party. Speaker Nahayo's apparent, although perhaps
grudging, support of Radjabu appears incongruous, but it
underscores a principle which many in Burundian government
have repeatedly emphasized, even prior to this latest
crisis: the CNDD-FDD party as a whole is greater than the
sum of its parts. In this country where the lines between
the government and the ruling party are often blurred, many
CNDD-FDD members believe that, should the party solidarity
begin to unravel, the government -- and Burundi's nascent
democracy -- could do so as well. Accordingly, in an
effort to ensure continued stability, the party's leaders
may be willing to accept certain differences in order to
maintain a united front. End Comment.

MOLLER