US POLICY ON IRAQ; VENEZUELA; 01/11/07; BUENOS AIRES

UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 000064

SIPDIS

STATE FOR INR/R/MR, I/GWHA, WHA, WHA/PDA, WHA/BSC,
WHA/EPSC
CDR USSOCOM FOR J-2 IAD/LAMA

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KPAO OPRC KMDR PREL MEDIA REACTION
SUBJECT: US POLICY ON IRAQ; VENEZUELA; 01/11/07; BUENOS AIRES



1. SUMMARY STATEMENT

Today's leading stories include US President Bush's decision to send
more troops to Iraq; the implications of Venezuelan President Hugo
Chavez's announced nationalization of telecommunications and utility
corporations; and the Argentine Government's reaction to Chavez's
announcements.


2. OPINION PIECES

- "Alone and against the tide"

Paula Lugones, international columnist of leading "Clarin," writes
(01/11) "It is as if nothing has happened. It is as if last November
7 an overwhelming number of Americans supported his policies. George

W. Bush does not care about anything - with a scary stubbornness or
deafness, the (US) President continues rowing against the tide.

"His 'new' plan on Iraq does not have anything new and only
satisfies a number of neo-conservative government officials and some
hawks on Capitol Hill, but no one else.

"Firstly, Bush turned his back on the huge majority of Americans who
repudiated his strategy in Iraq in November elections. He did not
take into account the outcome of recent opinion polls, according to
which two-thirds of US citizens are against an increase in the
number of (US) troops (in Iraq).

"(Bush) is also at odds with the (US) Pentagon's opinion, which has
let him know that sending more troops will not resolve the violent
situation in the Persian Gulf...

"The Iraqi authorities are not pleased either with his decision to
send more troops...

"Finally, Bush overlooked the main recommendations from the
bipartisan committee presided over by James Baker...

"The White House says that its strategy consists in 'increasing
(the number of troops) and then reducing.' However, Bush's bet is
highly risky - this time, he is absolutely alone."

- "2007: danger lies ahead"

James Neilson, contributor to liberal, English-language "Buenos
Aires Herald," writes (01/11) "Economics may be the dismal
science..., but these days most of its practitioners sound
positively cheerful, what with the IMF predicting that the planet's
gross product will keep growing by about five percent a year and the
so-called emerging countries... averaging up to seven percent.
Unfortunately, the rosy scenario they paint could change overnight
if, as seems all too likely, the Middle East blows up.

"... Were the US a more cynical superpower, the prospect of a
sectarian war throughout the Middle East... would be considered
acceptable as long as oil supplies could be secured, but its
moralistic culture would prevent it from trying to take advantage of
the resulting chaos. In any event, pleasing though a US failure in
Iraq would be to many, the price for it would be paid not only by
the Iraqis but also by other Middle Easterners, Europeans and
Americans both North and South."

- "Discipline"

Telma Luzzani, international columnist of leading "Clarin," writes
(01/11) "The 'Chavez effect' on the market only lasted 24 hours.
Today, the stock exchange went up again and irritation was clearly
seen in the political field...

"Is there any possibility that the nationalization policy promoted
by Chavez will be contagious? This seems to be the fear behind the
strong 'blows' to Chavez from the Argentine opposition as well as
the Brazilian newspapers expressing the interests of powerful
Brazilian financial and industrial sectors.

"According to an opposition analyst, it is strange that the
re-nationalization of a company 'that has always been owned by the
State and was privatized in 1991 is not as disconcerting in
Venezuela as unrestricted re-election or other proposals.'

"Objectively, Chavez' measure has no impact on Argentina or Brazil's
politics and economy. The opposition reaction seems rather a warning
for Lula and Kirchner not to digress too much from the discipline
set by the market."

- "The rise of a serious enemy"

Daily-of-record "La Nacion" front-pages an opinion piece by
historian Carlos Escud, who opines (01/11) "Hugo Chavez is no
longer an extravagant leader and has become a serious enemy, or, at
least, more serious than in the past...

"... With the money of his people, Chavez exported populism to an
unprecedented extent. His failed attempt to obtain a seat at the UN
Security Council made him promise to purchase all the excess cotton
from countries like Benin and Mali... thus securing some African
votes. He also bought Russia and China's votes, but it was not
enough... However, he did well in some cases, as in the recent
Nicaraguan presidential elections, in which he bet on Daniel Ortega
and succeeded.

"... Chavez subsidizes the Bolivia of Evo Morales as he does with
his favorite Cuba ...

"His strategy is attractive and has served Venezuela well; if
rejected by the Venezuelan people, Chavez would not have been able
to obtain 63 percent of votes in the December elections.

"... However, this policy serves no one but Chavez and with it,
Venezuela is missing the greatest opportunity in history to provide
a better future for its people."

- "Neither avant-garde nor a substitute"

Left-of-center "Pagina 12" carries an opinion piece by columnist
Dario Pignotti, who writes (01/1) "... In spite of Chavez's secured
popularity, who has won the ten elections and referenda held during
his term in office, his supporters acknowledge that such an
ambitious undertaking as laying the groundwork for a new political
model cannot rest on the shoulders of just one man.

"Even Heinz Dieterich himself, mentor of the notion of ' 21st
century socialism', pointed out more than a year ago that the
president's excessive accumulation of power is an inherent weakness
of the Bolivarian process. 'If Chavez were to stop doing his work
due to a disease, an accident or an assassination, his project would
collapse(...). There is neither an avant-garde nor a substitute
leader yet.'"

- "Four Argentine opinions about a new model of nationalization"

Left-of-center "Pagina 12" carries four opinion pieces on the
Venezuelan decision to nationalize telecommunications, electricity
and oil companies. Fernando 'Pino' Solanas (movie director) opined
'The fact that a Latin American president withdrew the license from
Radio Caracas Television, which has always been in favor of coups
d'etat and censorship, is rewarding to all of us who believe in
democracy and respect communication... TV channel licenses belong to
the people not to corporations...'

"Atilio Boron (contributor): 'It is a very positive announcement.
The outcome of privatization policies in Latin America is highly
negative... Chavez is the most categorical expression of Latin
American discontent with neo-liberalism. According to an opinion
poll carried out in 18 countries, only 30 percent agree with the
so-called neo-liberal market policies. This is the first step
towards an alternative to the 20th century socialist model and it
will be different from the Soviet experience.'

"Ricardo Sidicaro (contributor): 'I think it is interesting to
strengthen the ability of the State to manage corporations that have
certainly done worse in private hands. The failure of neo-liberalism
has been proven beyond doubt... The only discourse of the 904s had
closed the doors to new political options.'

"Leon Rozitchner: 'The market uncertainty is weird to me, as well as
the headlines of some newspapers. This did not happen here when we
suffered the ravage of privatizations, representing the purchase of
the political power by the financial capital. The purchase of those
"wills" was only possible due to a highly corrupted political power.
It is disgusting to see the terror spread by some Argentine media
before an act of justice from a government trying to recover
strategic assets.'"


3. EDITORIALS

- "Kirchner distnces himself from Louis XIV: 'We are capitalist"

Business-financial "Ambito Financiero" (01/11) reports "... The
meaning of the term 'capitalism' for Argentine Interior Minister
Anibal Fernandez remains to be seen, but what matters in any case is
the (Argentine Government's) political gesture - the Minister of
the Interior thought it was proper to clarify that the Argentine
Government is capitalist...

"Therefore, the Argentine government officially voiced the Kirchner
administration's attempt to from socialist Hugo Chavez's
megalomania - Chavez has become a sort of tropical Louis XIV."

To see more Buenos Aires reporting, visit our
classified website at:
http://www.state.sqov.gov/p/wha/buenosaires

WAYNE