Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07BUENOSAIRES2015
2007-10-10 13:59:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Buenos Aires
Cable title:  

ARGENTINA: GETTING READY FOR THE OCTOBER 28

Tags:  PGOV PREL AR 
pdf how-to read a cable
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RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBU #2015/01 2831359
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 101359Z OCT 07
FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9443
INFO RUEHAC/AMEMBASSY ASUNCION 6621
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 6500
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 1538
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ OCT MONTEVIDEO 6829
RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 0830
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHMCSUU/FBI WASHINGTON DC
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC
C O N F I D E N T I A L BUENOS AIRES 002015 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/05/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL AR
SUBJECT: ARGENTINA: GETTING READY FOR THE OCTOBER 28
ELECTIONS

REF: BUENOS AIRES 01952

Classified By: Ambassador E. Anthony Wayne for Reasons 1.4(b) and (d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L BUENOS AIRES 002015

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/05/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL AR
SUBJECT: ARGENTINA: GETTING READY FOR THE OCTOBER 28
ELECTIONS

REF: BUENOS AIRES 01952

Classified By: Ambassador E. Anthony Wayne for Reasons 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Over 20 million Argentines are expected
to turn up at polling stations on October 28 to cast their
votes for president, vice president and, in many locations,
for governor, mayor and legislative offices. If required, a
second presidential round would be held on November 25. The
National Electoral Board of Argentina announced October 3
that it was recommending three new measures aimed at
guaranteeing transparency in the October 28 presidential
elections. The various political parties may be allowed to
supervise the recording of vote tallies as they are entered
into the main database, have easier access to the government
funds allocated to each party, and oversee the delivery of
ballots to each voting station. Opposition candidates have
raised concerns over possible fraud in the coming elections,
but local electoral experts are skeptical that such fraud
could be effectively carried out on a large scale. Given the
substantial lead in the polls by front-runner Cristina
Kirchner, government-perpetrated fraud in the presidential
race would seem superfluous, but some observers say one
cannot discount the chance for some local problems, perhaps
aimed at boosting the front-runner over the key 40% mark.
This cable contains a primer on how the Argentine
presidential election will work. END SUMMARY.

--------------
Anti-Fraud Measures
--------------


2. (SBU) The National Electoral Board of Argentina
announced October 3 that it was recommending three new
measures aimed at guaranteeing transparency in the October 28
presidential elections. They recommend that the various
political parties be allowed to supervise the recording of
vote tallies as they are entered into the main database, have
easier access to the government funds allocated to each
party, and oversee the delivery of ballots to each voting
station. Center-left leader and presidential candidate Elisa
Carrio, currently tied for second place in the polls, was
quoted on October 3 as saying that she would be satisfied
with implementation of these measures to ensure the

presidential elections are free of fraud. The Interior
Ministry still has to approve and implement the Board's
recommendations, and some local analysts are skeptical that
the Ministry will comply.

Electronic Vote-Count Monitoring
--------------


3. (SBU) The National Electoral Board said the Interior
Ministry should authorize each political party to supervise
the recording of vote tallies by giving them access to the
software used by Indra, the Spanish firm contracted to tally
the votes, to follow electronically as the voting-station
tallies are entered into the main elections database. The
elections board asked that the software and instructions on
how it will be used at each step of the elections be passed
to all parties. National Elections Board director Alejandro
Tullio said "fraud is not possible because our system is
armored against it. The technology and controls we use do
not allow for the manipulation in any way of an election."

Easier Access to Funding
--------------


4. (SBU) The Board also announced that the Interior
Ministry should facilitate access to the government funding
allocated to political parties. Tullio said that the GOA is
up-to-date in with making these funds available and added
that some parties -- he mentioned the center-left Civic
Coalition and center-right One Alliance -- have still not
provided their bank account numbers and routing information
that would allow the government to deposit the funds.

Verifying the Presence of Ballots
--------------


5. (SBU) The Electoral Board also said party officials

should be allowed to supervise the delivery of ballots to
each voting station to make sure that all ballots are
presented to each voter.

--------------
International Observers Unlikely
--------------


6. (SBU) Center-left leader and presidential candidate
Elisa Carrio was quoted on October 3 as saying that she would
be satisfied with implementation of the National Electoral
Board's recommendations to ensure the presidential elections
are free of fraud. During her September trip to Washington,
the Organization of American States (OAS) reportedly had told
Carrio that it could not deploy an electoral observation
mission without a formal request from the GOA. The GOA
continues to maintain that the voting system is secure. An
unidentified government source was quoted October 3 in La
Nacion as saying, "there is no legal basis for requesting
observers," which La Nacion interpreted as alluding to the
lack of legislation that specifically addresses election
observers.

--------------
A Primer on Argentina's Presidential Election
--------------


7. (SBU) Argentina's Constitution and National Electoral
Code guarantee universal suffrage and dictate the election
process. All Argentines between ages 18 and 70 are required
to vote; exceptions include condemned prisoners, the mentally
ill, and people who are more than 500 kilometers (300 miles)
from their voting station on election day. As of June 30
(the latest data available),27,026,665 Argentines were
registered and qualified to vote in the October elections.
In the last presidential elections, approximately 78% of
eligible voters participated, the lowest turnout since the
restoration of democracy in 1983 (despite mandatory voting).
Voting stations will be open from 8 am to 6 pm across the
country. The federal capital district and the surrounding
province of Buenos Aires represent 47.7% of the total
national vote, with the capital city holding 10.2% and the
province 37.2%. Cordoba province and Santa Fe each represent
8.8%; Mendoza 4.2%; Tucuman 3.4%; Entre Rios 3.2%; Salta and
Chaco each 2.6%; Corrientes 2.4%; Misiones 2.3%; Santiago del
Estero 2.0%; San Juan 1.6%; Jujuy 1.5%; Rio Negro 1.4%;
Neuquen and Formosa each 1.2%; Chubut 1.1%; San Luis 1.0%;
Catamarca and La Pampa each 0.9%, La Rioja 0.8%, Santa Cruz
0.5%, and Tierra del Fuego 0.3%.


8. (SBU) The elections are overseen by the National
Elections Board, whose president is Alejandro Tullio. The
board also has representatives -- known as "fiscales de mesa"
-- from each political party who help observe voting and vote
counting. The smaller political parties often do not have
enough resources or supporters to post observers at each
voting station in the country. When a voter enters the
voting station, a "fiscal de mesa" checks the voter's
identification, registers the voter, and directs the voter to
the voting room. Voters enter the "dark room" ("cuarto
oscuro") where they find tables with piles of each ballot
laid out. The voter chooses the ballot for which he intends
to vote, folds it, and places it in an envelope. The sealed
envelope is then placed in the ballot box just outside the
dark room. If a voter wishes to vote for candidates from
different ballots, he must tear the ballots to separate the
candidates he wants. Then the torn pieces of ballot are
placed in the voting envelope.


9. (SBU) When voting concludes, the election authorities
open the ballot boxes and count the envelopes inside,
comparing the number to the list of voters that signed in.
The vote tally is recorded on five documents, all signed by
the elections authorities and fiscales de mesa present. One
copy is placed in that station's ballot box, which is then
sent to the National Electoral Board of each district for a
final count. Normally, the election results are certified
within two days of the election. Another copy of the vote
tally is sent via Argentine mail representatives to one of 38
data input centers controlled by Spanish firm Indra where the
provisional count is done and released the same day. Each

political party designates another set of representatives to
audit the input of the tallies into the provisional count.
The inputted vote tallies are sent to the National Computer
Center, part of the Communications Secretariat, where another
set of political party representatives oversee the final
count and certification of the elections results.


10. (SBU) In order to win in the first round, the lead
candidate must receive 45% of the votes, or 40% with at least
a 10-point lead over the second-place finisher. If these
conditions are not met, then the top two candidates compete
in a runoff election (scheduled for November 25 -- only 15
days before the December 10 inauguration) where the candidate
with the most votes wins. This will be Argentina's sixth
presidential election since the return of democracy in 1983:
Raul Alfonsin was elected in 1983, Carlos Menem in 1989 and
again in 1995, Fernando De la Rua in 1999, and Nestor
Kirchner in 2003.


11. (SBU) On October 2, Elections Board president Tullio
announced that the 2007 presidential elections will cost
twice as much as the 2003 elections. The GOA is anticipating
a cost of 200 million pesos (USD 66.6 million at current
rates of exchange),more than double the 80 million spent in
2003 and 50% more than the 2005 legislative elections (130
million pesos). This figure includes a possible second round
on November 25, which comprises 15% of the estimated cost.
The 200 million includes: 35 million paid to political
parties for campaigns, 38.6 million paid to Indra to manage
the vote data, 40 million for logistics, 10 million for voter
registration, 9 million for 150,000 electoral officials (who
are called upon much like jury duty in the U.S. to work at
the voting stations),10 million more than in 2003 for
printing of the ballots, 18 million for electoral judges and
courts nationwide, 27 million for security, 6 million for the
purchase of new ballot boxes and envelopes.

--------------
Ballots Ballots Everywhere
--------------


12. (SBU) In the push to collect as many of the key
9,700,000 votes (37% of the national vote total) in Buenos
Aires province, presidential candidate Cristina Kirchner and
gubernatorial candidate Daniel Scioli will be represented on
250 separate ballots/lists. Ninety-two mayoral candidates
are vying for 30 positions in the greater Buenos Aires area,
while 158 candidates will compete in 104 districts in the
more rural and out-lying areas of the province. Only some of
the candidates seeking reelection were authorized to run as
FPV candidates. The others are running with the support of
small local parties or the Radical Civic Union (UCR). The
confluence of ballots in the "dark room" is likely to confuse
voters, who may not be ready to select their candidate from
among several ballots, but Kirchner and Scioli will gain
votes no matter which mayoral candidate is selected. (Voters
traditionally hesitate to split/tear ballots.)


13. (SBU) Misiones province will also present voters with a
confusing array of ballots on October 28 -- 18,000 candidates
are vying for positions in the provincial elections on 1,949
ballots. Misiones is one of the few provinces to still allow
double simultaneous voting, which employs an open party-list
proportional representation method of voting. (Each party is
considered a "lema," and under that lema any number of
candidates may run for public office. The votes cast for
each candidate are totaled for the "lema," and the lema with
the most votes wins. The candidate with the most votes under
that lema then wins the race. The system favors large
parties with many candidates under their lemas.) 653,846
residents of Misiones are eligible and registered to vote,
making the ratio of voter to candidate 36 to one. The
election authorities have had to get creative to fit all of
the candidates on the ballots. In the capital city of
Posadas, for example, each ballot has 67 names and measures 9
centimeters high by 57 centimeters long. The "cuarto oscuro"
had to be moved to a large hall to accommodate the numerous
tables needed to display the 257 ballots in Posadas alone --
the room usually measures seven meters squared.


14. (SBU) Provincial elections will also be held on October

28 in Formosa, Jujuy, La Pampa, Mendoza, Salta, and Santa
Cruz.

--------------
Comment
--------------


15. (C) Most analysts here are not expecting any surprises
on October 28. Senator Kirchner maintains a significant lead
in nearly all polls, and the electoral system's structure
benefits Kirchner's party, as most voters are unlikely to rip
ballots to vote for candidates in different parties.
Kirchner also benefits from the confusing array of ballots in
many places, particularly in Buenos Aires and Misiones
provinces, where votes cast for any of the myriad FPV
candidates add to Senator Kirchner's total. The National
Electoral Board's recommended transparency measures have been
accepted by some of the opposition, but with about three
weeks until the actual vote, it remains to be seen if the
government will be able to implement them fully, and if the
Board's good intentions are sustainable until October 28. In
the presidential race, front-runner Cristina Kirchner's
substantial lead in the polls suggests that fraud will not be
necessary and that local electoral experts say that
large-scale fraud has not previously been a problem in
presidential elections. Some argue, however, that the
Kirchner machine is capable of cutting corners in key
districts to ensure that Cristina gets past the 40% threshold
required for a first-round victory. END COMMENT.
WAYNE