Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07BUENOSAIRES1519
2007-08-03 20:34:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Buenos Aires
Cable title:  

KIRCHNERS: PRESENT AND FUTURE

Tags:  PGOV PREL EFIN ETRD AR SP GM MX 
pdf how-to read a cable
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C O N F I D E N T I A L BUENOS AIRES 001519 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/03/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL EFIN ETRD AR SP GM MX
SUBJECT: KIRCHNERS: PRESENT AND FUTURE

Classified By: Ambassador E. Anthony Wayne, Reasons 1.4(b) and (d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L BUENOS AIRES 001519

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/03/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL EFIN ETRD AR SP GM MX
SUBJECT: KIRCHNERS: PRESENT AND FUTURE

Classified By: Ambassador E. Anthony Wayne, Reasons 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: In recent group and individual discussions
with G-8 and Spanish Ambassadors, all agreed that Cristina
Kirchner is trying to convey more interest in international
affairs and to show that she is listening to concerns
expressed by others. But her proposals for how she will
govern are still fairly vague, she is still reliant on her
husband for much of her advice, and she is hampered by his
outbursts against what he perceives to be easy targets.
Ambassadors agreed, however, that she will in all likelihood
be Argentina's next President, and it is in everyone's
interests that we work to "accompany her" as she seeks to
evolve new policies and better relations with other
countries. Ambassadors were also agreed that there was very
little likelihood that Argentina would show any new
flexibility on non-agricultural issues at the WTO or that
there will be any movement on the Paris Club and other debt
issues until after presidential elections. End Summary.


2. (SBU) Over the last week, Ambassador held group and
individual discussions with the G-8 and Spanish Ambassadors
about recent developments in Argentina and the emerging
campaign of Cristina Kirchner to succeed her husband as
President of Argentina. Following are highlights:

(SBU) Cristina Kirchner's July 22 - 25 visit to Spain


3. (C) Overall, Cristina Kirchner showed herself more open
to discussion and dialogue than her husband, but her ideas
for future policies are clearly not yet fully developed. She
used a number of the same turns of phrases in Mexico 7/30-8/1
as she had in Spain to try to indicate that her policies will
be different than her husband's, e.g. we are out of hell and
into purgatory. But exactly what she means to do remains
vague. Cristina K. presented her ideas in a forceful style,
which some could perceive as aggressive, but she also engaged
in very cordial give and take, according to the Spanish

Ambassador. She followed the media policies of her husband
which the Spanish found a bit strange. She kept the
Argentine press out of the loop and at a distance, which led
to some misreporting and left the burden of briefing
Argentine reporters largely on the Spanish. Cristina K. was
interestingly much more open with the international press
than the national press. Part of this seems to reflect her
perception that the press in Argentina serves as the
opposition to the government, because there are no effective
opposition parties. But, it also reflects her husband's
dislike of any give and take with the press. In the
interviews with non-Argentine press which Cristina gave in
Spain, she was articulate and effective.


4. (C) Meetings with the King were cordial and warm. So was
the one-hour-long, private meeting with the Prime Minister
which was designed to build personal relations and focused on
the challenges of running a campaign for President. Meetings
with and among ministers were productive but did not break
new ground, according to the Spanish Ambassador.


5. (C) Cristina Kirchner went out of her way in both the
government meetings and with business people to appear to
listen to concerns and to indicate that the Argentina that
she will lead is not the same Argentina that her husband took
over in 2003. The implication was that she would be able to
interact with business and with other nations in a different
way than her husband had done in the immediate aftermath of
the crisis. But she did not have details to share. She said
she will address energy tariff rates/prices, for example, but
without specifics, and then her good work was undermined when
her husband called Spanish companies incorrigible for asking
about future rates. Cristina did have one serious clash with
the head of BBVA bank during a session with business leaders.
The Spanish banker posed a very acerbic question to Cristina
Kirchner about her qualifications and how one could have
confidence in her words. This led to a few heated moments in
which she pointed out that the BBVA seemed to be making good
profits in Argentina right now, but then she calmed the
exchange down. Senior business and government leaders seemed
to come away from their meetings with her hopeful that she
will continue developing a friendlier view toward investment
climate concerns and toward a more open view of the
international scene.

(SBU) Nestor Kirchner Still Lashing Out


6. (C) G-8 Ambassadors lamented that Nestor Kirchner
continues his practices of attacking easy targets for
short-term calculations, noting recent criticism of the U.S.
border wall with Mexico and German investment funds, as well
as the Spanish business leaders. The UK Ambassador noted
that Kirchner reportedly commissions regular polls to
identify unpopular targets so he knows who he can safely
attack. The German Ambassador speculated that the criticism
of German banks was probably motivated by looking at their
recent market actions on Argentine bonds, without considering
the turmoil in most international markets as people sought to
flee from risk. It only reminded one of Kirchner's parochial
views of world developments. U.S. Ambassador noted that the
remarks in Mexico on the U.S. border fence seemed designed to
win applause from Mexican legislators. The Spanish
Ambassador noted that in addition to his critical remarks
about Spanish businessmen, Kirchner first thought the recent
burning by striking workers of several fishing businesses in
Santa Cruz Province was aimed at him and could not understand
why the Spanish were expressing concern. When the President
called the Ambassador to complain, the Spaniard noted that
five of the companies concerned were Spanish and one was
Japanese. Ambassadors agreed that Kirchner's calculations
about when to lash out against unpopular targets appeared to
be based largely on how to get the most boost domestically in
the short term and often is used as a way to distract
attention from the real problems linked to his
administration. A bottom line effect, however, is to
undermine confidence in Argentina among other governments and
among international businessmen.

(SBU) Undermining Cristina's Efforts to Strike a New
International Pose


7. (C) These tactics undermine Cristina Kirchner's efforts
to strike a new pose and to show that she is more engaged and
interested in international relations, ambassadors agreed,
despite the fact that the President probably fully supports
and no doubt helped craft the ideas she has put on the table
so far. Cristina is planning to visit Germany in September
and will have a short meeting with the Chancellor, according
to the German Ambassador. The U.S. Ambassador noted her
plans to visit New York City with her husband during the UNGA
and to meet with business and banking sector reps as well as
to attend the Clinton Global Initiative meeting.

(SBU) Cristina Likely to Win; Encourage Her Opening to the
World


8. (C) G-8 and Spanish Ambassadors agreed that Cristina
Kirchner is likely to win the October 28 presidential
election, barring some major unforeseen event. Common
knowledge was that she does not yet have a well-developed,
substantive plan, but that her idea of a "social compact"
appears to be based in part on the agreement forged in Spain

in 1979 which brought together political parties, business
and labor unions into a national pact which helped sustain
economic growth and strengthen democracy in Spain in
subsequent years. The notion behind this seems to be that by
getting some rules of the game agreed, the country might be
able to maintain consistency in policies and social climate
to help the economy keep growing and institutions strengthen.
Cristina also seems sincerely interested in more
international engagement, Ambassadors said. In this sense,
Ambassadors agreed that it seemed in our shared interests to
do what we can to encourage this opening to the world and a
more normal approach to interacting with other governments.
Several Ambassadors thought they had seen signs that Cristina
is less at ease with Hugo Chavez than is her husband. They
also noted that Foreign Minister Taiana seems to have a good
relationship with Cristina and personally would like to see
Argentina move back to more cordial and balanced relations
with Europe and the United States. Still, there was
agreement that her ideas for change remain to be developed,
that she is still rooted in the left of center tradition of
Argentina, and that she does not yet have a team of advisors
beyond her husband and a couple of key officials at the Casa
Rosada. Still, as one ambassador put it, "we should
accompany her" on this path and try to encourage a good
evolution of her thinking.

(U) Doha and Paris Club


9. (C) None of the Ambassadors saw any hope that Argentina
would ease its concerns on the non-agricultural tariff issues
in the WTO negotiations (NAMA) until after Presidential
elections. Neither did they see prospect for movement on
Paris Club debt until next year.

(SBU) Repsol Sale


10. (C) The Spanish Ambassador said the sale of part of
Repsol's shares in the Argentine oil company YPF to the
Eskanazi family is nearing completion. He says the Eskanazis
(an Argentine banking and business family) have business ties
to Kirchner but are not personally close to him nor should
they be considered his allies. They have won the respect of
Repsol's corporate leadership, however. He noted that the
sale will free up Repsol assets for deployment elsewhere and
help provide more political cover for the Spanish firm in
Argentina.


11. (C) Comment: None of our interlocutors are certain how
Cristina Kirchner's polices will evolve. Her closest
collaborator remains her husband. But there are glimmerings
of opportunity for positive change, which we agree are worth
encouraging.
WAYNE