ARGENTINA: "PINGUINA" FOR PRESIDENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BUENOS AIRES 001286

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/03/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL AR
SUBJECT: ARGENTINA: "PINGUINA" FOR PRESIDENT

REF: BUENOS AIRES 00906

Classified By: Ambassador E. Anthony Wayne for Reasons 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: First Lady and Senator Cristina
Fernandez de Kirchner will be the official candidate of the
GoA for president in October, replacing her husband, current
President Nestor Kirchner. Fernandez de Kirchner's candidacy
was widely anticipated after months of intimation from the
Casa Rosada, but the timing of the announcement on July 1
caught most political analysts by surprise and has led them
to speculate that the ongoing vacillation between "pinguino"
and "pinguina" was becoming a political liability. The
announcement will give renewed hope to the dispersed
opposition of denying the Kirchners a win in the first round
(given Cristina's lower poll numbers). However, unification
of the opposition is still unlikely. With an energy crisis
on their hands, a recent series of provincial election
setbacks, and the emergence of yet more corruption scandals,
the Kirchners' position as the front-runners of the
presidential race seems more vulnerable to encroachment by
opposition candidates. END SUMMARY.

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Pinguina for President
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2. (U) The official news agency of the Argentine government
Telam on July 1 cited Cabinet Chief Alberto Fernandez as
saying that First Lady and Senator Cristina Fernandez de
Kirchner will announce on July 19 her candidacy for
president, replacing her husband and current President Nestor
Kirchner as the Frente Para Victoria (FPV - Kirchner's
Peronist-based grouping) candidate. Rumors of Fernandez de
Kirchner's possible candidacy have been circulating for over
a year, but gained credibility when President Kirchner
himself confirmed the possibility on multiple occasions in
recent months. In the last couple months, the President
asked the public to be patient with him as he and his
advisors considered the options.

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Why Pinguina?
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3. (C) The administration appears to be betting that
Fernandez de Kirchner will bring some new life into the
fading Kirchner presidency. Unlike her husband, Fernandez de
Kirchner has remained largely unscathed by corruption
scandals, poor management of the prolonged teacher union
strike in Santa Cruz, scrutiny of unreliable inflation
figures, and recent energy shortages. She is expected to
bring a more academic and intellectual air to the presidency,
as her husband's populism is not really her style. While she
is widely expected to represent more of the same policies and
attitudes as her husband, some analysts here suggest that we
may see some subtle changes such as: a more defined foreign
policy, clearer rules of engagement with Venezuela, and more
openness to working with the U.S. on some issues.
Furthermore, by running Fernandez de Kirchner as the
candidate, Kirchner reserves a chance at another term in the
future and buys himself four more years to cultivate and
groom another FPV politico as a successor to the Kirchner
family reign. Some commentators are reporting that another
factor is that Nestor Kirchner is tired and does not want to
be in the center limelight for another four years.


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Why now?
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4. (C) Kirchner has been teasing the electorate with the
question of pinguino or pinguina for several months, but
faced with an energy crisis, increasing numbers of corruption
scandals, and electoral defeats in a number of recent
provincial contests, vacillation over who will be the
candidate was proving to be a political liability. According
to Kirchnerista sources quoted in Clarin, the announcement
was advanced to July 19th after the June defeats of
Kirchner-backed candidates in Buenos Aires and Tierra del
Fuego. Launching Fernandez de Kirchner's candidacy changes
the headlines and may help bring national and media attention
back to the administration and away from the opposition
victories of June.

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BUENOS AIR 00001286 002 OF 002


Mobilizing the Opposition
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5. (SBU) The announcement of Fernandez de Kirchner's
candidacy has given renewed hope to the dispersed opposition
candidates. Most political analysts here see Cristina's
candidacy as a chance for the opposition candidates to deny
the Kirchners a win in the first round (given her lower poll
numbers). Only center-right RECREAR candidate Ricardo Lopez
Murphy seems open to working together to force a runoff. He
has suggested the opposition candidates should agree to an
"understanding" that they not attack each other in the lead
up to the first round, which would serve as a sort of primary
to select the opposition candidate for the second round
runoff. Ideally, then, the rest of the opposition candidates
would support the one who made it to the runoff in the hopes
of beating Fernandez de Kirchner.


6. (SBU) Other opposition sectors still seem to prefer to
take their chances alone. Center-left leader Elisa Carrio
remains reluctant to join forces in the presidential race,
saying that she prefers "not to make collective
speculations." Former Economy Minister Roberto Lavagna has
rejected the idea of working together to challenge the
government, fearing that it would send a sign of weakness as
a candidate. Lavagna has, however, said that it will be very
difficult for the opposition to "steal the fight" if it
remains fragmented. Several dissident Peronist figures are
also making noise about organizing themselves into an
anti-Kirchner presidential effort.

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Comment
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7. (C) President Kirchner and his wife have remained the
front-runners in projections for the October elections in
large part because the opposition remains fragmented and
without a nationally marketable candidate. If the opposition
could unite and propose a strong candidate, they could pose a
real challenge to the house of Kirchner in October. Although
there has been no emergence of a united opposition candidate
to date, some in the opposition will be re-energized by the
possibility of forcing Fernandez de Kirchner into a runoff
and they may work harder to actually do it. With the ongoing
energy crunch and more corruption scandals bubbling to the
surface, the Kirchners' position as the front-runners of the
presidential race may be vulnerable to encroachment. But
this outcome is contingent on the unlikely eventuality of the
opposition putting aside its differences, tempering its egos,
and focusing on creating a united front to challenge the
Kirchners in October. END COMMENT.
WAYNE