ARGENTINA: MACRI IS NEW BUENOS AIRES MAYOR:

C O N F I D E N T I A L BUENOS AIRES 001240

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/25/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL AR
SUBJECT: ARGENTINA: MACRI IS NEW BUENOS AIRES MAYOR:
OPPOSITION BEATS ADMINISTRATION

REF: BUENOS AIRES 01088

Classified By: Ambassador E. Anthony Wayne for Reasons 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: President Kirchner's image of political
invulnerability has been shaken by two local elections, but
he is still far ahead in presidential election polls.
Center-right leader Mauricio Macri (PRO) is the new mayor of
Buenos Aires city, having won the runoff election on June 24
by a margin of 21 percent over his competitor, national
Education Minister Daniel Filmus. The Kirchner
administration is also claiming victory of sorts, saying that
Filmus's results represent an important showing for Peronism
in the capital, but this is the first center-right victory in
Buenos Aires since 1911. The national impact of the June
24th results in Buenos Aires is mostly on whether the
opposition can unite to present a real alternative to
officialism. The province of Tierra del Fuego also held a
runoff election for governor on the 24th with the surprise
defeat of the current "Kirchnerista" Governor by center-left
ARI candidate Fabiana Rios (Argentina's first elected female
governor). Both election results represent a defeat for
President Kirchner's Victory Front party (FPV). Neither is
expected to affect significantly the President's or First
Lady's chances of an easy reelection in October, but they
have set off a wave of speculation about how the President
will respond. END SUMMARY.

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Buenos Aires Runoff Results
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2. (SBU) Center-right leader Mauricio Macri (PRO) will be
the new mayor of Buenos Aires in December, after winning
60.96 percent of the votes in the runoff elections for mayor
on June 24. Macri's win represents the first time since 1911
that a center-right candidate has won in the capital. Of the
four mayoral elections held since the city's autonomy in
1994, Macri finished with the largest advantage over his
competitor in both the first and second rounds of voting.
While Macri's campaign espoused the ideals of efficiency,
security, and order, these center-right principles were
tempered by vice-mayoral candidate Gabriela Michetti, who is
widely viewed as representing more center-left ideals such as
"sensibility," solidarity, and equality. Several analysts
here have said that the vice-candidate has never had such an
important role in campaigning as did Michetti.


3. (C) The Kirchner administration's candidate National
Education Minister Daniel Filmus finished with 39.04 percent.
The administration is claiming that Filmus's strong finish
in the historically non-Peronist capital represents a victory
in and of itself. Although Filmus and his Casa Rosada
supporters had tried to nationalize the campaign, Filmus
tried to minimize the effect of his defeat on the President,
saying the election had been about local issues and that it
was he who lost and not the administration. President
Kirchner and First Lady Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner each
called Filmus to congratulate him on reaching 40 percent, but
there was a noticeable toning down of the administration's
support of Filmus after his final defeat and the more obvious
support after Filmus's win of second place on June 3.


4. (U) The celebration at Macri's "bunker" was predictable
exuberant. When the crowd began chanting "this is for
Kirchner to watch on TV," Macri stopped them immediately
saying, "that is not PRO." Macri has already begun
negotiations with current Mayor Jorge Telerman (who lost in
the first round on June 3) (reftel) on facilitating the
transition of power, which takes place on December 10.
(NOTE: Macri will need this time to find people to fill the
approximately 1000 political position in the city government.
According to a PRO legislator, PRO has about 500 people now
to fill these positions, but needs to recruit about 500 more.
END NOTE.) So far, Macri has confirmed only three members
of his future cabinet: Horacio Rodriguez Larreta, PRO
vice-president and campaign chief, has been chosen as chief
of staff; Nestor Grindetti, current director of the City
Bank, will be the Tax Minister; and Mariano Narodowski, who
headed the PRO list for city legislators, will not assume the
position of legislator but rather will serve as Minister of
Education.

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Surprise in Tierra del Fuego: Argentina's First Female
Governor
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4. (C) The southern-most province of Tierra del Fuego held
its runoff elections for governor on June 24th, resulting in
the surprise win of center-left Affirmation for an
Egalitarian Republic party (ARI) candidate Fabiana Rios.
Rios will be the first elected female governor in the history
of Argentina and will assume her new position on January 10,

2008. This is also the first executive position for the ARI
party, whose voter base has widely been considered to be in
the city of Buenos Aires. Rios's win has also been called a
redemption of ARI and its former leader, presidential
candidate Elisa Carrio, who suffered a political blow after
her civic coalition with Buenos Aries Mayor Telerman failed
to win a place in the Buenos Aires runoff.


5. (C) Although Rios's win is not expected to affect
President Kirchner's chances of reelection (or his wife's
chances of being elected (reftel)) in October, it does
indicate that Kirchner has lost the invincible image he
seemed to have had. His support for current Governor Hugo
Coccaro was not enough to guarantee reelection. This echoes
a trend started last October when a Kirchner-backed proposal
to allow indefinite reelections in Misiones province was
soundly defeated.


6. (C) Rios's win must be put into context of her
opponent's persona. Coccaro is accused of trying to have the
former Governor Jorge Colazo of the UCR party assassinated
while Coccaro served as vice-governor. Several emboffs have
described Coccaro as a crime-boss like figure and their
encounters with him as "scary." He took over as governor in
2005 after Colazo was removed from office--he was not elected
to the position. The other "Kirchnerista" candidate, Jorge
Garramuno, suffered a major blow in the polls just days
before the first round when a video of one of his associates
accepting a bribe was aired. This created a unique
circumstance that allowed for Rios's election.


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COMMENT
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7. (C) Macri is the clear winner of the June 24 Buenos
Aires mayoral elections. He not only maintained his lead
from the first round, but now becomes the de facto leader of
the dispersed opposition and strong potential contender for
2011 presidential elections. It will not be easy for the
opposition to capitalize on Macri's sound victory before
October, as the three current opposition candidates for
president--Elisa Carrio, Roberto Lavagna, and Ricardo Lopez
Murphy--have so far been unable to unite into one cohesive
entity.


8. (C) Five months before the presidential election,
Kirchner already had plenty of issues that could prove to be
damaging to his standing in the polls, with energy shortages
most recently added to the list of public complaints. The
new question that has begun to surface is: what if the
official candidate does not reach 40 percent in October, thus
requiring a runoff against the second-place candidate and
giving the opposition a real motive to unite that it lacks
today. The advantage for the October presidential elections
still rests strongly with President Kirchner, but Macri's
sound victory and the surprise opposition win in Tierra del
Fuego may significantly impact Kirchner's decision to run
himself or run First Lady Senator Cristina Fernandez de
Kirchner as the official candidate. This is a decision we
are now not likely to see until some time in August or early
September, rather than the late July time frame earlier
predicted by many. (NOTE: According to Argentine electoral
law, presidential candidates must legally register their
candidacies between 90 and 50 days prior to the election. In
this case, that window is between July 28 and September 8.
END NOTE.) END COMMENT.
WAYNE