ARGENTINA: SHOWDOWN FOR BUENOS AIRES MAYOR:

C O N F I D E N T I A L BUENOS AIRES 001088

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

EMBASSY VILNIUS FOR THOMAS P. KELLY
EMBASSY GUATEMALA FOR ALEX FEATHERSTONE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/04/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL AR
SUBJECT: ARGENTINA: SHOWDOWN FOR BUENOS AIRES MAYOR:
OPPOSITION VS. ADMINISTRATION

REF: BUENOS AIRES 00906

Classified By: ACDA Michael Matera for Reasons 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Center-right leader Mauricio Macri (PRO)
was the clear winner of the first round of voting for mayor
of Buenos Aires city on June 3, but the Kirchner
administration can also claim victory, as its candidate,
National Education Minister Daniel Filmus came in second.
This has pushed current Mayor Jorge Telerman out of the
run-off election set for June 24, and seriously damaged the
image of his campaign partner presidential candidate Elisa
Carrio. Long-thought to have no chance in the city
elections, Filmus's win of a spot in the run-off is a win for
the Kirchner administration, but could set him up for a
significant defeat in the second round. The national impact
of the June 3rd results in Buenos Aires is mostly on internal
struggles within the Kirchner camp and on the pole positions
of the opposition candidates for president. Macri's "ample"
margin of victory in the first round sets him up as the
likely winner of the second round, although nothing is
guaranteed. President Kirchner now must decide whether the
administration will make an all out effort (including an
aggressive anti-Macri campaign that runs the risk of
backfiring) to increase support for Filmus, which will likely
fall well short, or to consider it victory enough to have
pushed Telerman out of the runoff and weakened Carrio as a
national candidate. END SUMMARY.

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Election Results
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2. (U) Center-right leader Mauricio Macri (PRO) was the
clear winner with 45.6 percent of the votes in the first
round for mayor of Buenos Aires city on June 3, but the
Kirchner administration can also claim victory, as its
candidate, National Education Minister Daniel Filmus came in
second with 23.8 percent. Third place went to current Mayor
Jorge Telerman and his Civic Coalition with 20.7 percent.
Telerman and Filmus had been polling at nearly the same
numbers for most of May in the lead-up to the elections, but
strong support from President Nestor Kirchner seems to have
given Filmus the extra push his campaign needed to pull ahead
of Telerman.


3. (U) Macri's party gained six seats in the city
legislature, giving them 28 of the 60 total seats and a near
majority. Both Filmus' and Telerman's parties lost seats
(one and two respectively),while leftists Patricia Walsh and
Claudio Lozano each picked up one legislative seat. The new
distribution of seats in the city legislature will become
effective on December 10.

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Filmus in Second Round
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4. (C) Filmus's win of a spot in the run-off is a win for
the Kirchner administration. Long-thought to have no hope of
posing a serious challenge to Telerman's chances of facing
Macri in the second round, Filmus obtained a three point
victory over Telerman. Both Telerman and Filmus are Peronist
but Telerman never enjoyed the support of the Casa Rosada and
there was a long-running struggle between Telerman and
Kirchner Cabinet Chief Alberto Fernandez, who is also the
Peronist party leader in the City. Telerman had come to
represent a Peronist alternative to Kirchner (and Fernandez)
in the city and the first round election became a de facto
Peronist primary with Macri content to take the high ground
and let the two PJ party rivals slug it out. Filmus's
campaign began to improve its standing after the personal
support of Kirchner, indicating that although the city is
considered to be anti-Peronist, Kirchner can count some
strong supporters among the city's voters.


5. (C) While Filmus's finish in the first round is a
triumph of sorts for Kirchnerism in the city, it has
potentially set Filmus up for a significant defeat in the
run-off. Even with the full support of the GOA behind him in
the next three weeks, it will be difficult for Filmus to
reverse the 22 point lead that Macri achieved in the first
round. Months of mudslinging and bitter rivalry between the
Filmus and Telerman camps could have a negative impact on
encouraging Telerman supporters to support Filmus. Macri
only needs one-quarter of the Telerman voters to support him
in the second round to defeat Filmus--a very viable scenario.
While Filmus's supporters would have been expected to vote
en masse for Telerman in the second round, not all of
Telerman's supporters can be counted in support of Filmus.

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National Consequences
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6. (C) The national impact of the June 3rd results in
Buenos Aires is mostly on internal struggles within the
Kirchner camp and on the pole positions of the opposition
candidates for president. Cabinet Chief Alberto Fernandez
played a major role in supporting Filmus's candidacy and
vilifying Telerman. As Kirchner's first presidential term
draws to an end rumors of cabinet level changes in personnel
are swirling and, while Fernandez is believed by many to be
one of the few not in risk of losing his position, he has
always been outside the inner circle of cronies from the
Kirchner's home province of Santa Cruz. Filmus's place in
the run-off is a victory not just for officialism but for
Fernandez's
political capital.


7. (C) Filmus's win has pushed Telerman out of the run-off
election set for June 24, but many analysts here see this as
a bigger defeat for Telerman's coalition partner center-left
leader and presidential candidate Elisa Carrio. Carrio, with
little chance in the national election, is nevertheless
Kirchner's most vocal critic and a general pain in the neck
for the administration. By marginalizing her importance in
the city--her strongest district of support--this election
has significantly weakened her position as a presidential
candidate and given an advantage to ex-Economy Minister
Roberto Lavagna, who is running at the head of an
anti-Kirchner Peronist and Radical Civic Union (UCR)
alliance. None of this, however, is expected to have much of
an impact on whether the official candidate for president in
October will be Nestor or Cristina Kirchner, or on the
eventual outcome of the election.

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Neuquen Province also Goes to Opposition
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8. (C) In gubernatorial elections held the same day as the
Buenos Aires elections, the party of current Governor and
one-time presidential candidate Jorge Sobisch won over the
Kirchner-supported Radical candidate. Popular Movement of
Neuquen (MPN) candidate Jorge Sapag faced overcoming the
stigma of the scandal Sobisch suffered for his management of
a teachers union strike that resulted in the death of a
teacher (reftel). Sapag won by a margin of fourteen points
over the Kirchner-supported Radical Civic Union-K candidate
Horacio Quiroga. Sapag's win in Neuquen is more likely the
result of decades of MPN control of the province than it is a
true defeat for Kirchner's Front for Victory Party (FPV).
(COMMENT: One analyst here has suggested that Argentine
elections are trending towards maintaining the incumbency of
the ruling parties, with Neuquen as the fifth province to
follow this pattern in local elections, following Corrientes,
Catamarca, Entre Rios, and Rio Negro. END COMMENT.)

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COMMENT
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9. (C) Macri is the clear winner of the June 3 Buenos Aires
mayoral elections. He not only won enough votes in the first
round to position himself as the probable winner of the
second round, but has become the potential leader of the
center-right opposition and potential contender for 2011
presidential elections. Macri's comfortable lead is
strengthened by his win in every voting district in the
city--the lowest of which he won with 39 percent of the
votes. It will be difficult for Filmus to bridge the 22
point gap currently between him and front-runner Macri. It
is unclear how support from Kirchner for Filmus's campaign
will help or hurt his chances of winning on the 24th, as city
voters have shown themselves to be unpredictable in their
opinions about the administration. Some analysts estimate
that Kirchner/Filmus support would top out at 40 percent.


10. (C) Five months before the presidential election,
Kirchner has plenty of issues that could prove to be damaging
to his standing in the polls. Domestic shortages of
electricity, natural gas, and gasoline have begun to affect
large sectors of the country in the form of rolling
black-outs and fuel shortages, and to weaken the position of
National Infrastructure Minister Julio DeVido, who is also
plagued by the specter of the Skanska scandal that threatens
to implicate his office in alleged corruption. Kirchner has
so far supported DeVido, perhaps, as analysts here suggest,
perceiving that a change in his support for DeVido could be
seen as political weakness. Given all of this, President
Kirchner could consider that his job in the city is done and
begin distancing himself somewhat from a candidate with
little chances of beating the main political opposition
leader. This president is hard to predict, however, and he
could decide to go for it all, double his bet, and pull out
all the stops for Filmus for the June 24 run-off. END
COMMENT.
MATERA