BLUE DANUBE: POLITICAL COMMENTATORS' MEETING WITH

C O N F I D E N T I A L BUDAPEST 000992

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT PLEASE PASS TO NSC FOR ADAM STERLING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/17/2012
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM HU
SUBJECT: BLUE DANUBE: POLITICAL COMMENTATORS' MEETING WITH
FORMER SECRETARY ALBRIGHT


Classified By: P/E COUNSELOR ERIC V. GAUDIOSI: REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) Former Secretary Albright's breakfast with Hungarian
political commentators June 14 reflected consensus across the
political spectrum that Hungary is still struggling
practically and psychologically with the responsibilities of
its accession into the Euro-Atlantic mainstream.


2. (C) Opening discussion by looking back on her long
connection to the region, Secretary Albright asked for candid
views as to whether Hungary still regarded the future with
the same optimism as it had in the 90s.


3. (C) Despite their broad spectrum of political
affiliation, invitees were unanimous in expressing concern
over Hungary's present direction. Political Science
Professor (and FIDESZ foreign policy advisor) Tamas Magyarics
commented that the parties, the media, and academia have all
been complicit in creating "2 Hungaries" by exacerbating
Hungary's deep political schism. He believes Hungarians
remain "educated provincials," uncomfortable looking forward,
"underwhelmed" by the benefits of membership in NATO and the
EU, and unable to rely on civil society to bridge the yawning
gap between the left and the right.


4. (C) Former Hungarian Representative in Brussels Peter
Balazs commented that "Hungary looks terrible from the EU's
perspective." "Violence in the streets" had sullied
Hungary's reputation, and both the European Peoples Party and
the Socialist International had strong reservations about
their local political affiliates. Balazs described the
present government as "undistinguished at best," assessing
that "only the Minister of Agriculture is respected by all
parties." He warned in closing that integration into
Euro-Atlantic structures "is making things worse" because now
"Hungarians feel insignificant both within Europe and within
a globalizing world."


5. (C) Istvan Gyarmati, Director of the International Center
for Democratic Transition (ICDT),observed that Hungary
continues to suffer from "institutional and individual
immaturity" as it attempts to develop a sense of "national
and personal sovereignty" on a "foundation of paternalism."
Referring to the "delicate balance of lustration," Gyarmati
highlighted the sense that Hungary had not demanded
appropriate accountability from the old regime in 1989 and
"cannot do so 17 years later." He emphasized the stylistic
similarities between PM Gyurcsany and Viktor Orban,
describing both as products of "the breakdown of the system."


6. (C) This pessimism contrasted in part with Secretary
Albright's meeting with FM Goncz, who expressed her opinion
that Hungary is still "strongly rooted" in the Euro-Atlantic
community and working to expand NATO and the EU, especially
in the Balkans. Expressing concern over "perfectly horrible"
behavior by Moscow, Secretary Albright commented that "the
saddest thing of all would be for Hungary to neutralize
itself by being more concerned about Russia's interests than
your own." She appealed to Hungary to play an important part
in "managing Russia's devolution" and avoiding the "return to
spheres of influence." FM Goncz joked in closing that she
would "move Hungary someplace else in the world" if she
could.

x. (C) Comment: As one participant in the breakfast later
joked, "we're always pessimistic ... but this time we're
right." There is something to that: Hungarian contacts
across the political spectrum are talking increasingly -
though not often to each other - about the dividing lines
between the right and the left, between the rich and the
poor, and between the capital and the regions. As they
concede, these are all issue of long-standing. As they warn,
however, Hungary's current malaise contrasts with economic
improvements in the region. Even when the pessimism flies in
the face of the objective statistics, unreasonably dark
perceptions and unreasonably high expectations continue to
drive the debate. As contacts on both sides of the aisle
have observed, this trend may also be driving Hungarians away
from political participation. With frustration on the rise,
popular disaffection is directed less at the opposing party
and increasingly at "the system" writ large. End Comment.
FOLEY