PAY ATTENTION TO THE MAN BEHIND THE CURTAIN:

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BUDAPEST 000947

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT PLEASE PASS TO NSC FOR ADAM STERLING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/06/2012
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR HU
SUBJECT: PAY ATTENTION TO THE MAN BEHIND THE CURTAIN:
FIDESZ FACTION LEADER TIBOR NAVRACSICS


Classified By: P/E COUNSELOR ERIC V. GAUDIOSI; REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) FIDESZ Parliamentary Faction Leader Tibor Navracsics
is rapidly emerging from relative obscurity to national
political prominence. He is amassing influence within the
party for his mastery of the issues and assuming a higher
public profile as the opposition's spokesperson in Parliament.

THE QUIET MAN


2. (C) Since FIDESZ announced its "excommunication" policy
of walking out on PM Gyurcsany's remarks in Parliament,
Navracsics has remained the party's sole representative and
single voice on the floor. Though long seen - and largely
underestimated - as a policy wonk, he has done the job quite
deftly, combining confrontation and compromise. He gave an
impassioned rebuttal to the Prime Minister's imputations of
anti-Semitism among the opposition, for example, openly
defying Gyurcsany to "name one member of this party whom you
believe to be an anti-Semite."


3. (C) At the same time, members of the MSZP and SZDSZ have
let us know privately that Navracsics is someone they can -
and do - work with behind the scenes. Such moderation is
rare within Orban's party, which often demands more personal
loyalty than substantive consistency. Indeed, politicians
rarely run to the center here, and Navracsics is aware that
his attempts to find a moderate position are the exception
rather than the rule. As he himself quipped recently to the
Ambassador, "you only like me because I'm moderate."


4. (C) But there is more to like. Navracsics has clearly
taken advantage of his unique position as FIDESZ's sole voice
in Parliament to master a host of legal, economic, and
foreign policy issues. In a party that tends to stove-pipe
its substantive responsibilities, Navracsics is as
comfortable talking about taxation as he is military reform.
He is widely credited with pressing the party to do more than
simply oppose the government's initiatives, and FIDESZ's
latest campaign platform, a 100-page volume entitled "Our
Future," is seen as his brain-child. His popularity has
grown, and he is now among Hungary's ten most popular
political figures, far outstripping the PM and others within
his own party.

THE QUOTABLE MAN


5. (C) He is also comfortable talking to the media. With
Orban often "unavailable" for comment, Navracsics is
increasingly in the domestic and foreign press. He is also
markedly more visible on the Budapest circuit, and is one of
the few FIDESZ officials who will come to meetings
unaccompanied. He is also clinical and exceptionally candid
in conversation, as when he openly previewed the party's
political strategy - and likely leadership line-up - in a
meeting with Ambassador Foley months before the event.


6. (C) A recent day-long tour of his native Dunatul region
gave us new insights into Navracsics' style. Navracsics
joined Ambassador Foley at a panel discussion on women's
empowerment, discussed foreign investment opportunities with
municipal and regional officials, toured the American Corner,
and focused on the need to improve coordination among the
resort communities around Lake Balaton to attract more
tourism revenue. Always soft-spoken and low-key, Navracsics
let others take the lead but subtly guided the conversation
to underscore FIDESZ's key themes. Though not in the
spot-light, Navracsics was clearly in the lead.

SURPRISE, SURPRISE


7. (C) Navracsics is hardly an overnight sensation. Indeed,
his rise has been a long time coming. A university classmate
of Orban's and a fellow founding member of FIDESZ, he has
served almost exclusively in staff and think-tank positions
and was elected to parliament from the party list rather than
as a representative of an electoral district. His selection
as FIDESZ's parliamentary faction leader after the 2006
elections came as a surprise and was only made possible by
the deterioration in the relationship between Orban and the
incumbent, Janos Ader.


8. (C) The surprises have kept coming. As FIDESZ insiders
and outside observers survey the field, Navracsics' name is
being mentioned seriously as a potential Prime Ministerial
candidate. Some believe he will receive Orban's blessing to
run if FIDESZ's prospects look dim, thus sparing Orban from a
third electoral defeat. Others, including FIDESZ MP and
Parliamentary Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Zsolt Nemeth,
suggest that Navracsics might be the party's candidate in the

BUDAPEST 00000947 002 OF 002


event of early elections. (Comment: Although both scenarios
seem improbable, neither is impossible and Navracsics' stock
is clearly on the rise. End Comment.)


9. (C) Biographic Notes: Tall and spare, Navracsics
collapsed on the floor of Parliament earlier this year due to
what was described as a "viral illness." Though he returned
to the office within a week, his friends note that he works
60 - 80 hours a week and observe that he "always looks
tired." He is reserved and almost courtly, but has a sharp
sense of humor and was the only prominent FIDESZ politician
to leave the convention center to mingle with the general
public during their recent party congress. His family's
roots are in Hercegovina (a region he refers to as being
"famous for two things: snakes and Ustashe"),and he chatted
comfortably in Croatian with a translator and emboff during
the Dunatul trip. He is frequently sighted on the Budapest
trams on his way to Parliament, often grading student papers
from a class he teaches at a local university. Navracsics
has visited the US and speaks excellent though slightly
accented English.






FOLEY