DISTORTED REFLECTIONS: THE DISTANCE BETWEEN THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BUDAPEST 000866

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT PLEASE PASS TO NSC FOR ADAM STERLING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/22/2017
TAGS: PGOV PINR HU
SUBJECT: DISTORTED REFLECTIONS: THE DISTANCE BETWEEN THE
LEADERS AND THEIR PARTIES

REF: A) BUDAPEST 732 B) BUDAPEST 788 C) BUDAPEST 823

Classified By: P/E COUNSELOR ERIC V. GAUDIOSI; REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) Hungary's political parties leave the spring
convention season with their leadership either reaffirmed
(FIDESZ and the MDF) or realigned (MSZP and SZDSZ). Although
the parties are intent on minimizing their internal
divisions, there is an ironic gap between the current party
presidents and their own parties. From PM Gyurcsany to
FIDESZ leader Orban, party presidents often lead
organizations they do not accurately represent.

THE MSZP: UNEASY RESTS THE HEAD


2. (C) Despite his dramatic ultimatum to the party for a
clear leadership mandate - and indeed perhaps because of it -
PM Gyurcsany is clearly hampered in his efforts to
marginalize his rivals within the MSZP and to move forward on
his reform agenda (REF A). A recent magazine cover shows
other socialist leaders attempting to wrest the wheel of a
moving car away from Gyurcsany, with the headline "Hit the
Brakes!", reflecting the fact that other party power-brokers
including DefMin Szekeres, Labor Minister Kiss, and
Parliamentary Speaker Szili remain far to the left of
Gyurcsany on questions of government support to the public.
Resistance to continued reforms within the MSZP seems to be
growing, and the recent wave of scandals in the law
enforcement community has diverted the government's attention
as it has lent further credence to the opposition's assertion
that Gyurcsany's Hungary has become "Absurdistan." Often
seen as too progressive by the party's Old Guard and too
impersonal by the rank and file, Gyurcsany has never been
loved within the MSZP (although he is the first to hold the
party presidency and the Prime Ministership simultaneously).
With his personal popularity at record lows, he may no longer
be feared - or followed - either.

THE SZDSZ: HAS THE TORCH BEEN PASSED?


3. (C) With Economy Minister Koka's narrow victory, the
SZDSZ is also making its presence known within the coalition
on key issues including health care (REF B). Both outside
observers and party insiders including faction leader Matyas
Eorsi indicated they are meeting less resistance on these
issues from Gyurcsany - who many in both parties feel to be
"more SZDSZ than MSZP at heart" - than from the socialist Old
Guard. (Indeed, Koka has referred to the MSZP as "Gyurcsany
and one or two others versus the other 190 MPs.") Beyond
this delicate dynamic within the coalition, Koka has cause
for concern on the home front as well. Although his truce
with electoral rival (and now Environment Minister) Gabor
Fodor appears to be holding for now, Fodor is more
representative of the party's dissident roots and his allies
are strategically positioned within the party. Koka's
management style may be his strongest asset, as sources
report he has "amazed SZDSZ members used to marathon debate
by showing them that meetings can take sixty minutes and not
six hours." That said, even Koka's supporters admit he is
"not perfect" to lead the party, and he has admitted that he
is more liberal on social issues than the SZDSZ's base. If
Koka is to convince the party aithful to overlook these
differences, he will need to reverse the SZDSZ's plunging
poll numbers.

FIDESZ: THE SPINNING MAN


4. (C) Even while celebrating his overwhelming reelection as
FIDESZ president, Viktor Orban admitted to diplomatic
representatives that he has "no idea what will happen in
Hungary ... or even what is possible under our constitution."
Although he remains confident that only he can keep FIDESZ's
disparate supporters under one party banner, his public
remarks have given little indication of where he would lead
the party. As one observer suggested, "FIDESZ spends so much
time talking about the past because they can't agree about
the future." As their party congress indicated, there are
marked differences of opinion within FIDESZ regarding both
tone and tactics (REF C),and some are distinctly
uncomfortable with Orban's current populist incarnation.
Many more will be unhappy if he is unable to translate the
current popular dissatisfaction with the Gyurcsany government
into an electoral victory the next time around.

THE MDF: PROGRESS WITHOUT CHANGE


5. (C) If there is an exception to this rule it is the MDF.
The party weathered widespread defections during the 2006
election and is now actively rebuilding. Party president
Ibolya David remains their greatest asset, but translating

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her personal popularity into tangible political support will
be their greatest challenge. There is a broadsense among
our diplomatic colleagues that David alone has not changed
her spots, and most polls indicate that her message of fiscal
responsibility has given the MDF both credibility and
momentum. Early thinking is that she and her party will be
in demand when the time comes to consider the next governing
coalition, but our sense is that she will want to bide her
time ... and then name her price.


6. (C) Comment: With stress fractures emerging within the
parties, Gyurcsany especially finds himself with less power
than responsibility. Although the PM's ability to move
forward on further reforms is constrained by resistance
within the MSZP, Orban, too, may have a short honeymoon
following his reelection if he is unable to show any progress
toward the goal of removing Gyurcsany. Even as the parties
continue to contend with each other, their leaders will
likely be spending more time tending to their own back yards.
End Comment.
FOLEY