HUNGARIAN VIEWS ON CUBA TRANSITION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BUDAPEST 000754

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT PLEASE PASS TO NSC FOR ADAM STERLING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/07/2012
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM HU
SUBJECT: HUNGARIAN VIEWS ON CUBA TRANSITION


Classified By: P/E COUNSELOR ERIC V. GAUDIOSI; REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (U) Senior officials across Hungary's political spectrum
expressed gratitude for USG engagement and strong support for
our efforts to "create space" for a democratic transition in
Cuba in meetings with Cuba Transition Coordinator Caleb
McCarry May 6 - 7.


2. (C) Throughout his meetings, McCarry emphasized the
importance of Cuba's democratic opposition's Unity for
Freedom statement as a genuine call for democratic change
coming from the island. With GoH contacts, he underscored
the importance of preserving common ground between the US and
the EU. McCarry also emphasized the importance of the
current EU Common Position on Cuba and the need to maintain a
clear commitment to a democratic outcome in Cuba. He pointed
out that removing the special measures from the EU Common
Position would send a terrible signal to Cuba's democratic
opposition and a confusing message to others in Cuba.

BIG STEPS FROM "A SMALL COUNTRY"


3. (C) MFA State Secretary Laszlo Varkonyi outlined current
GoH steps to move forward on what he described as Hungary's
"moral duty" to support the transition in Cuba. Although the
situation is "unclear and unpredictable," he understands
"civil society is moving forward - as it did in Hungary" and
believes "the transition is already under way." Varkonyi
commented that Hungary's steps to "leave the mainstream" had
"raised eyebrows," but emphasized that the GoH is prepared
for "an uncomfortable relationship" with the Cuban regime in
order to reach out to the Cuban people and "tell our story."


4. (C) It is not, however, prepared to "jeopardize our
relationship with Spain." At FM Goncz's instruction, he had
met privately with Spanish MFA counterparts to discuss Cuba,
emphasizing that the GoH is "not fomenting revolution but
talking about its own transition." Hungarian initiatives are
"neither against Spain nor against the Cuban people." He had
opened the door to further cooperation, inviting Spanish
representatives to attend the GoH's upcoming conference on
Cuba to ensure "a broad front," but had found Madrid strongly
disinclined to make the significant changes to the existing
EU Common Position Hungary favors. Although he commented
with pride that he sees Hungary's "modest efforts" having "a
disproportionate effect" on international efforts, Varkonyi
concluded that "Madrid will not change its position for us."

PREPARING FOR THE BEST ... AND THE WORST


5. (C) MP Matyas Eorsi, Chairman of the Parliament's
European Affairs Committee and newly-elected faction leader
of the SZDSZ party, saw Sarkozy's election in France as a
potential opportunity to enter a more cooperate era in US-EU
relations, including on Cuba. He expressed his hope that
modest civil society initiatives will "show the people they
are empowered" without threatening the government into
further repression. He suggested that the regime may be
weaker than it appears, noting that "oppressive regimes
sometimes lack even the strength to collapse." He also
cautioned that "reformers must be prepared for the worst,
including a nationalist backlash and future electoral
losses." Eorsi also agreed to accept a Freedom House
invitation to visit Cuba in July ... "if they will give me a
visa."


6. (C) MP Zsolt Nemeth, Chairman of the Parliament's Foreign
Affairs Committee, expressed broad support for efforts to use
Hungary's transition as an example for the Cuban people and
specifically endorsed the GoH's steps re the potential
resettlement of protected migrants from Guantanamo. He also
struck a cautionary note, commenting that efforts should be
made to "limit the survival of the nomenklatura" and "limit
the influence of the emigre community."

IN PARALLEL IF NOT IN TANDEM


7. (C) Ambassador Istvan Gyarmati, Director of the
International Center for Democratic Transition (ICDT),sees
Hungarian efforts playing an important role within the EU and
suggested that the Gyurcsany government could use its
political affinity for the Zapateros government to influence
Spanish policy. He believes Hungary can effectively advocate
"a European policy that is about more than opposing America,"
setting as the goal an EU approach that would work "in
parallel if not in tandem" with the U.S. to achieve our
shared objective. Although he believes "everybody knows that
the U.S. will be a democratic Cuba's closest ally - literally
and figuratively," he believes both EU capitals and Cuban
citizens will welcome our message that Cuba's future will be

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decided "on the island and not in Miami."

TWO LITTLE WORDS


8. (C) FM Goncz welcomed Mr. McCarry's expression of the
USG's appreciation for Hungary's efforts, joking that "thank
you" are two words "we never hear in Hungarian." She noted
the significance of the Cuban opposition finding common
ground, commenting that change must come "from inside" but
cautioning that civil society took "years to gain experience"
in Hungary and that "political change is always the last sign
to appear." She emphasized the value of non-political
contacts, citing South Korean commercial inroads into North
Korea as an example of creative ways to promote change but
concluding that "Hungary moved slowly toward success ... and
tempers still flare 17 years later."
The FM was also reluctant to take on Madrid, remarking that
the Czech position reflected in part that it had "nothing to
lose." She questioned whether a new EU declaration on Cuba
would be "the best idea" given the potential for conflict
within the Union, indicating sympathy for Spain's desire to
"maintain contacts" and concluding that "all dialogue is
good."

MIAMI II


9. (C) All interlocutors looked forward to the upcoming Cuba
Conference in Budapest, with State Secretary Varkonyi
underscoring that "any and all U.S. assistance will be
greatly appreciated." Ambassador Gyarmati admitted that he
is "still at variance with the Foreign Minister" over the
focus of the conference. He also expressed reservations
regarding the June 23 date proposed by Ambassador Simonyi,
questioning whether the goal should be "a conference American
congressmen will attend and Europeans won't."


10. (C) Comment: There is broad political consensus behind
Hungarian efforts that are modest but building momentum.
With a new Ambassador on the ground and further increases to
their diplomatic staff in Havana under consideration, Cuba is
becoming Hungary's largest Latin American post. They clearly
appreciated Mr. McCarry's emphasis on our efforts to "get
this right," but see themselves as lacking the influence to
reverse Spain's position. We will continue our efforts to
encourage their coordination with like-minded states, and
look forward to working with the Department to make the
upcoming conference the next step forward. End Comment.













FOLEY