Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07BUDAPEST521
2007-04-05 14:38:00
SECRET
Embassy Budapest
Cable title:  

PROTESTING TOO MUCH?: PM GYURCSANY ON ENERGY

Tags:  PREL PGOV ECON HU 
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VZCZCXYZ0033
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHUP #0521/01 0951438
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
O 051438Z APR 07 ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1045
S E C R E T BUDAPEST 000521 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT EUR DAS PEKALA AND EUR/NCE; PLEASE PASS TO NSC
FOR ADAM STERLING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/04/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON HU
SUBJECT: PROTESTING TOO MUCH?: PM GYURCSANY ON ENERGY
SECURITY, MISSILE DEFENSE

REF: BUDAPEST 506

Classified By: P/E COUNSELOR ERIC V. GAUDIOSI; REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)

S E C R E T BUDAPEST 000521

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT EUR DAS PEKALA AND EUR/NCE; PLEASE PASS TO NSC
FOR ADAM STERLING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/04/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON HU
SUBJECT: PROTESTING TOO MUCH?: PM GYURCSANY ON ENERGY
SECURITY, MISSILE DEFENSE

REF: BUDAPEST 506

Classified By: P/E COUNSELOR ERIC V. GAUDIOSI; REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) Prime Minister Gyurcsany showed a rare display of
temper - but no substantive surprises - in discussing energy
security and missile defense with Ambassador Foley April 5.

ENERGY SECURITY: ACTIONS SPEAK LOUDER THAN WORDS


2. (S) Ambassador Foley reviewed the questions and concerns
raised by DAS Bryza's recent trip to Hungary (septel),
highlighting EU Commissioner Piebalg's recent meetings in
Washington and the strong US-EU commitment to diversification
as a strategic priority. We have received mixed signals from
Hungarian statements, and believe that actions will speak
louder than words in clarifying the GoH's position. In this
regard, Ambassador Foley raised the prospect of a Gyurcsany
visit to Azerbaijan, or a GoH-hosted Nabucco event, as ways
Budapest might consider to make clear its professed openness
to both Blue Stream and Nabucco.


3. (S) A troubled Gyurcsany expressed his surprise that
"this situation has emerged" but recognized that it is "more
serious than I realized." He also voiced his
"disappointment" that "misunderstanding and
misinterpretation" could cast doubts on Hungary's position,
noting his view that "our friendship should have been able to
withstand one quote in the International Herald Tribune." He
expressed Hungary's "interest in diversifying energy sources
from differenct directions and - if possible - from different
companies and different sources." He conceded Hungary's
"dependence" and maintained that Hungary will pursue
alternatives "if there is an opportunity." "Under more or
less the same conditions of stability and availability," he
continued, he would "choose an independent source
unequivocally." He denied, however, that there is "any
proven obligation to choose" despite the interest of "some
circles who would like to see Hungary commit to Nabucco
regardless of probability."


4. (S) Gyurcsany noted studies forecasting serious

shortfalls in heating oil as early as 2011, commenting that
"if I have a problem 5 years from now I have to consider what
progress Nabucco has made in the past 5 years." "Who the
hell," he railed, "would want to depend on GAZPROM?" There
would be "no question" of Hungary's position, he concluded,
"if there were a realistic alternative." Responding to the
Ambassador's press for a more a forward-leaning position on
LNG projects in Croatia as a way to help dispel concerns
regarding Hungary's position, Gyurcsany described them as
also showing "lots of talk and little progress."


5. (S) He also voiced strong objections to "simplifying our
relationship with Russia to just energy," pointing out that
Hungarian exports to Russia have tripled in the past four
years. When asked if he is concerned that this further
compounds Hungary's dependency, he responded that "we cannot
be asked not to sell our goods there." Although he
acknowledged that the Ukraine, Belarus, and Hungary had
already paid a price for relying on Russian energy, he
insisted that it would be "very sad if our friends will not
even listen to our arguments" and if he had to "pay a price
for having the courage to call these dreams."


6. (S) Ambassador Foley responded that Hungary's
equivocation could make Nabucco "a bad dream," pointing out
that its mixed messages will have real consequences on the
project and on Allied perceptions. She urged the PM to make
his position clear through his future actions.

MISSILE DEFENSE, EUROPEAN SECURITY, AND RUSSIA


7. (S) Turning to Missile Defense, Ambassador Foley reviewed
Brigadier General O'Reilly's recent visit to Budapest
(reftel),emphasizing our own commitment to consultations
with Europe and our own equities in maintaining a
relationship with Russia. We had noted the PM's remarks from
Moscow, which could give some the impression of criticism of
the U.S. and reinforce the perception of a "pattern of
association" with Russia.


8. (S) Gyurcsany referred to Missile Defense as "an
important European security issue," arguing that Hungary has
learned that these issues "must be placed in the broader
context as the subject of open discussion with all countries
who have an impact - including Russia." Although he
recognized the bilateral nature of discussions with Warsaw
and Prague, he commented that "you cannot expect us not to
talk about anything but bilateral issues." "I cannot

accept," he continued, "that it is disturbing to our
relationship if I speak out on security issues," noting that
he is "far more open to see your misperception on energy
security than on this."


9. (S) Reviewing the discussion in conclusion, Gyurcsany
expressed his understanding of our concerns on energy
security and his regret for any misperception. "Full
partnership requires 2 partners," he concluded, offering to
"meet any time to talk" but hoping that "you will not lose
faith based on one article." Expressing his "injury," he
noted that a "balanced approach" toward Moscow should not
"call into question our orientation" but concluding that he
will consider "steps to protect our friendship."


10. (S) Comment: With comments ranging from plaintive to
histrionic, this was a different tone from Gyurcsany but not
a dramatically different position. Evidently not well
prepared by his staff (again),he seemed to feel ambushed by
our following up on these pressing issues. He spoke
extemporaneously and often emotionally but without evident
focus on the substance. What he said reflects continued
ambivalence on energy security, with no evident recognition
that Hungary's machinations could make Nabucco a self-denying
prophecy. He did open the door slightly on taking steps to
reverse what he repeatedly characterized as "misperceptions,"
and we will need to walk through with continued engagement to
see them follow through. The Prime Minister was less
comprehending - and less yielding - on Missile Defense,
repeatedly suggesting a Russian role in all European security
questions. As a defense of Hungary's orientation, this
raises more questions than it answers. End Comment.
l
FOLEY