MAN OF THE HOUR: MSZP CONGRESS ELECTS PM GYURCSANY

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TAGS: PGOV KDEM HU ASEC
SUBJECT: MAN OF THE HOUR: MSZP CONGRESS ELECTS PM GYURCSANY
PARTY LEADER


Classified By: POL/C ERIC V. GAUDIOSI; REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) PM Gyurcsany asked for and received a strong mandate
to lead the MSZP, winning the party presidency with over 89
percent of the vote during the February 24-25 party congress.
As predicted, Defense Minister Imre Szekeres and Gyurcsany
confidante Ference Juhasz were elected as the party's
vice-presidents, with outgoing party president and Minister
of Education and Culture Istvan Hiller, Minister of Labor and
Social Affairs Peter Kiss, and Istvan Ujhelyi elected to the
party's third-tier leadership positions.

TOUGH TALK FROM GYURCSANY ...


2. (C) The convention hewed closely to the script, with the
only major surprise coming when Gyurcsany called for "at
least 75 percent support" in the voting as a de facto vote of
confidence in his leadership. In a strong 55-minute address
February 24, Gyurcsany called on the party to discuss its
setbacks as well as its successes in order to "cut the
Gordian knot" of problems confronting Hungary. Strongly
criticizing the forces of "anti-modernism" and "authoritarian
nationalism," he emphasized the contrast between "the forces
of reform and regression." Echoing FIDESZ leader Viktor
Orban's recent slogan of "one nation, one flag," Gyurcsany
asked the party delegates to choose "which flag and what kind
of nation." Vowing "not to shy away from confrontation" but
to "stand up for moderation and modernity," he vowed to
govern "through the parliament and not the beer hall." The
choice, he concluded, is between those who believe in
"homeland over progress" and those who will work toward
"progress for the homeland" (not incidentally the MSZP's new
party slogan).


3. (C) Other speakers followed Gyurcsany's lead, with party
steering committee member Peter Simon decrying "a fight in
which one party wears gloves and the other brass knuckles."
"If the opposition insists on making this a fight between
good and evil, between right and wrong," he noted, "let us
have the courage to say that we are good and we are right."

AND ABOUT HIS CHALLENGERS


4. (C) Gyurcsany's decision to throw down the gauntlet to
the convention prompted a flurry of rumors regarding a
challenge to his candidacy by Parliamentary Speaker Katalin
Szili, whose weekend editorial proposed a more conciliatory
approach. Gyurcsany's supporters rallied to the PM, with
MSZP parliamentary faction leader Ildiko Lendvai referring to
the Szili piece in her observation that "of course there are
other paths ... but not that of Hugo Chavez." Another
Gyurcsany loyalist questioned whether Szili - who is
dismissed as a lightweight by some in the party - "had even
written her own editorial." Discussion on the margins was
also highlighted by the events in Heves county, where the
defection of a local FIDESZ official tipped the local
government to the MSZP's favor, and to the death of party
delegate of a heart attack on the floor of the convention.

GUESTS OF HONOR


5. (C) Gyurcsany returned to a more familiar tone in his
address on February 25. In a shorter but denser speech, he
pledged to renew the party through activist leadership
committed to building consensus. Austrian Chancellor Alfred
Gusenbauer and Serbian President Boris Tadic made guest
appearances, congratulating Gyurcsany on his election and his
commitment to reform. (Comment: These invitations were a
deft touch, framing reform in Hungary in the European
continuum while helping associate Gyurcsany with Tadic's
party and its supporters in Serbia's ethnic Hungarian
community. End Comment.)

WHEN WILL IT END?


6. (C) At a private dinner February 25, a tired but upbeat
Gyurcsany told Ambassador Foley that "no one" knew about his
plans for the congress in advance other than his wife. She
expressed considerable consternation at the gamble, pressing
him to "at least settle for two-thirds," and both were
clearly relieved at their success. Still feeling poorly from
an illness that forced him to cancel his schedule late in the
week, Gyurcsany looked back on his rousing address Saturday,
commenting that "my passion is not just from my fever." Both
he and his wife noted, however, that his election will not
resolve the government's running battle with the opposition.
Citing demonstrations earlier in the day to commemorate the
victims of the communist regime, recent vandalism of MSZP
headquarters in Eger, and crowds throwing fruit and eggs at
her husband at stops in the provinces, she concluded that "I

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only wish I could be confident that it will end."

GYURCSANY HOLDS SERVE


7. (C) Comment: The MSZP achieved its primary purpose of
maintaining a united front behind Gyurcsany's personal
leadership and his reformist policies. Although his
calculated gamble grabbed headlines, some in the party
believe he would have received more support without what some
perceived as a command and even faction leader Lendvai
referred to as scare tactics. Even with the party's broad
endorsement, support for Gyurcsany is not necessarily deep.
Defense Minister Szekeres confides to us that the PM is
widely regarded in the party as "difficult," and former PM
Horn has commented publicly that his approach of "alienating
all elements of society" has gotten the MSZP into "a hell of
a lot of trouble. Although Gyurcsany has now packed the
party leadership with members of his cabinet, he still has as
many rivals as allies at senior levels. Significantly, the
party did not extend additional powers to the party
leadership, as Gyurcsany had reportedly sought. That leaves
him the man of the hour, but well aware that the path ahead
remains long and difficult. End Comment.


FOLEY