Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07BUDAPEST248
2007-02-21 14:59:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Budapest
Cable title:
RHETORICAL QUESTIONS: ORBAN'S STATE OF THE NATION
how-toVZCZCXRO3383 PP RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR DE RUEHUP #0248 0521459 ZNY CCCCC ZZH P 211459Z FEB 07 FM AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0796 INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
C O N F I D E N T I A L BUDAPEST 000248
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
DEPARTMENT PLEASE PASS TO NSC FOR ADAM STERLING
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/20/2017
TAGS: PGOV KDEM ASEC HU
SUBJECT: RHETORICAL QUESTIONS: ORBAN'S STATE OF THE NATION
REF: A) BUDAPEST 226 B) BUDAPEST 199 C) BUDAPEST 135
AND PREVIOUS
Classified By: POL/C ERIC V. GAUDIOSI
C O N F I D E N T I A L BUDAPEST 000248
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
DEPARTMENT PLEASE PASS TO NSC FOR ADAM STERLING
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/20/2017
TAGS: PGOV KDEM ASEC HU
SUBJECT: RHETORICAL QUESTIONS: ORBAN'S STATE OF THE NATION
REF: A) BUDAPEST 226 B) BUDAPEST 199 C) BUDAPEST 135
AND PREVIOUS
Classified By: POL/C ERIC V. GAUDIOSI
1. (C) FIDESZ Party President Viktor Orban gave a fiery
"State of the Nation" address to an invited group of several
hundred party representatives in Budapest February 16 (ref
a).
NEW MAJORITY VS. NEW ARISTOCRACY
2. (C) The speech represented a clear escalation in the
opposition's rhetoric. Orban strongly denounced the
Gyurcsany government as "Hungary's new aristocracy,"
demanding accountability for their "lies, cynicism, and
pretense." He asserted that the people have the right to
remove their government, warning that there will be "no peace
without justice" and stating that only the "new majority" led
by FIDESZ can restore Hungary's strength.
3. (SBU) Orban's remarks met with largely critical reviews.
Many commentators saw nothing new in his address, describing
the event as a "missed opportunity" to lay out clear policy
alternatives in response to PM Gyurcsany's speech to
Parliament February 13 (ref b). Noting the intensity of the
rhetoric, Orban's former cabinet chief (and more recent
critic),Istvan Stumpf, remarked that "what Orban calls a
crisis will never be big enough to force the cabinet's
resignation." Minister of Economy Koka has already warned
that Orban is courting "civil war."
4. (C) Our colleagues in the diplomatic community believe the
opposition will "change the volume but not the debate" as the
government proceeds with its reform agenda in the months
ahead. They see Orban as fixated on divisive "dissident
tactics" while a new breed of FIDESZ leaders - composed of
elected officials more attuned to compromise than
confrontation - grows increasingly impatient on the
sidelines. In a recent interview, Budapest District V Mayor
(and former FIDESZ national campaign chairman) Antal Rogan
commented that the party "no longer resembles Orban" and
suggested that "everything must change." Our colleagues
believe this internal pressure may push an insecure Orban to
more extreme rhetoric (and potentially more extreme action)
in order to achieve success now whatever the objective risks.
COLORLESS REVOLUTION
5. (C) Comment: After a new (and welcome) focus on issues
such as energy security over the winter (ref c),Orban is
apparently returning to the familiar politics of outrage. As
our diplomatic colleagues note, his populist remarks are
still those of an angry young man ... albeit one who is no
longer quite so young. Indeed, there is a part of Orban that
seems to yearn for the barricades, as if he regrets the fact
that Hungary had a colorless transition in 1989-90 rather
than a color-coded revolution. While this attitude strikes a
deep chord with many Hungarians, it contrasts sharply with
the more pragmatic approach of others in the party who would
prefer to appeal to voters' self-interest rather than their
self-image. As March 15 approaches, Orban will be tempted to
continue his more extreme rhetoric, both to destabilize the
government and to solidify his own political position. End
Comment.
REEKER
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
DEPARTMENT PLEASE PASS TO NSC FOR ADAM STERLING
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/20/2017
TAGS: PGOV KDEM ASEC HU
SUBJECT: RHETORICAL QUESTIONS: ORBAN'S STATE OF THE NATION
REF: A) BUDAPEST 226 B) BUDAPEST 199 C) BUDAPEST 135
AND PREVIOUS
Classified By: POL/C ERIC V. GAUDIOSI
1. (C) FIDESZ Party President Viktor Orban gave a fiery
"State of the Nation" address to an invited group of several
hundred party representatives in Budapest February 16 (ref
a).
NEW MAJORITY VS. NEW ARISTOCRACY
2. (C) The speech represented a clear escalation in the
opposition's rhetoric. Orban strongly denounced the
Gyurcsany government as "Hungary's new aristocracy,"
demanding accountability for their "lies, cynicism, and
pretense." He asserted that the people have the right to
remove their government, warning that there will be "no peace
without justice" and stating that only the "new majority" led
by FIDESZ can restore Hungary's strength.
3. (SBU) Orban's remarks met with largely critical reviews.
Many commentators saw nothing new in his address, describing
the event as a "missed opportunity" to lay out clear policy
alternatives in response to PM Gyurcsany's speech to
Parliament February 13 (ref b). Noting the intensity of the
rhetoric, Orban's former cabinet chief (and more recent
critic),Istvan Stumpf, remarked that "what Orban calls a
crisis will never be big enough to force the cabinet's
resignation." Minister of Economy Koka has already warned
that Orban is courting "civil war."
4. (C) Our colleagues in the diplomatic community believe the
opposition will "change the volume but not the debate" as the
government proceeds with its reform agenda in the months
ahead. They see Orban as fixated on divisive "dissident
tactics" while a new breed of FIDESZ leaders - composed of
elected officials more attuned to compromise than
confrontation - grows increasingly impatient on the
sidelines. In a recent interview, Budapest District V Mayor
(and former FIDESZ national campaign chairman) Antal Rogan
commented that the party "no longer resembles Orban" and
suggested that "everything must change." Our colleagues
believe this internal pressure may push an insecure Orban to
more extreme rhetoric (and potentially more extreme action)
in order to achieve success now whatever the objective risks.
COLORLESS REVOLUTION
5. (C) Comment: After a new (and welcome) focus on issues
such as energy security over the winter (ref c),Orban is
apparently returning to the familiar politics of outrage. As
our diplomatic colleagues note, his populist remarks are
still those of an angry young man ... albeit one who is no
longer quite so young. Indeed, there is a part of Orban that
seems to yearn for the barricades, as if he regrets the fact
that Hungary had a colorless transition in 1989-90 rather
than a color-coded revolution. While this attitude strikes a
deep chord with many Hungarians, it contrasts sharply with
the more pragmatic approach of others in the party who would
prefer to appeal to voters' self-interest rather than their
self-image. As March 15 approaches, Orban will be tempted to
continue his more extreme rhetoric, both to destabilize the
government and to solidify his own political position. End
Comment.
REEKER