ADJUSTING FIRE: HOW THE PARTIES ARE ADAPTING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BUDAPEST 001831

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SIPDIS

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/07/2012
TAGS: PGOV KDEM HU
SUBJECT: ADJUSTING FIRE: HOW THE PARTIES ARE ADAPTING

REF: A) BUDAPEST 1818 B) BUDAPEST 1756 C) BUDAPEST

962 D) BUDAPEST 784

Classified By: P/E COUNSELOR ERIC V. GAUDIOSI: REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (SBU) As Parliament enters the last month of its 2007
session, some clear trends are emerging regarding the
evolving organization of both the government and the
opposition.

SPEED KILLS


2. (C) The government has demonstrated impressive resilience
in its recent legislative offensive, moving quickly to table
proposals on topics ranging from party financing (ref A) to
tax reform (ref B). Their most recent proposals have emerged
with little advance notice ) to us or evidently to the
Parliament ) and are reportedly the result of the new circle
of advisors in the Prime Minister's Office (PMO). The PMO is
clearly driving the policy process, and those close to the
office believe the new line-up gives Gyurcsany the ability to
quickly capitalize on opportunities by generating initiatives
to address public opinion. This will help the PM demonstrate
that ) despite individual crises ) his government has not
entered a "period of crisis."


3. (C) But the PMO may be moving faster than the speed of
the party. MSzP MPs have felt repeatedly sandbagged by the
PM, who has proposed major changes with only minimal ) and
often belated ) consultation with the party. MP Vilmos
Szabo tells us that Gyurcsany's "stubbornness" led the
parliamentary faction to vote against his tax proposals (ref
A),and he believes the friction within the party's
praesidium could reach the point that ultimately "Gyurcsany
will have to replace them ... or they will have to replace
him."


4. (C) The junior coalition partner SzDSz is, if anything,
more aggrieved by what they see as the PM breaking his
commitments on health care and tax reform. Party leader
Janos Koka told Ambassador Foley November 8 that he is "as
pessimistic as I've ever been" about the future of the
coalition given what MEP Istvan Szent-Ivanyi described as the
PM's "inability to control the MSzP's rival warlords."


5. (C) Nor has the government managed to control the public
sector. Funding for the PMO is up a reported 8 percent,
while morale throughout the ministries seems to be in decline
as talk of further "administrative reform" continues. Many
in the public sector feel at risk of being marginalized as
the PMO takes the lead on domestic policy. This would
continue a clear trend of centralization that began with
foreign affairs (ref C).

THE PM'S COMFORT ZONE


6. (C) It would also cater to Gyurcsany's preferred
management style. Friends and foes alike describe the PM as
relying on cogitation more than consultation, and say he
seems to believe that his personal energy ) which MDF Party
President Ibolya David likens to a tornado - will always be
able to overcome political opposition. As a clearly
frustrated Koka observed, "the Prime Minister has the energy,
the ambition, and every other good quality necessary to carry
out reforms ... except the credibility."


7. (C) This no-huddle offense presents definite risks given
opposition within the party, but the real object may be the
public. The PM's anti-corruption reforms continue to poll
well, and he is making his longest local speaking tour in
months to promote his plans for the allocation of EU
assistance (septel),commenting on November 7 that "as
politicians argue, life must go on in the countryside." That
was an unpleasant surprise for Koka, who observed tartly to
us that the PM might spend less time riding horses in the
countryside and more time riding herd on the MSzP.


8. (C) Political analysts here believe the PM is betting
that his initiatives will generate sufficient public support
to ultimately keep the MSzP in line. Gyurcsany is evidently
frustrated with the party he leads but has not yet fully
controlled: his response may be an approach that goes
directly from closed deliberations to public roll-out,
circumventing the internal negotiations which have long
characterized the MSzP.

THE OPPOSITION: CORPORATE TAKE-OVER?


9. (C) The opposition, meanwhile, is moving to a more
corporate model of organization as it works to demonstrate
its capacity to govern. In a meeting with diplomatic

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representatives November 7, FIDESZ Parliamentary Faction
Leader Tibor Navracsics dismissed the government's efforts as
"more spin than substance," contrasting their approach with
his party's goal of "offering uncommitted voters practical
reasons to vote for us." In practice, this may mean a
combination of conservative values and populist economics in
an attempt to envelop the government from both sides.


10. (C) Other faces are also becoming familiar sights as
Party President Viktor Orban adjusts to delegating a degree
of authority. With long-time party insiders Laszlo Kover and
Janos Ader seemingly gravitating away from Orban's inner
circle, the public is seeing more of Navracsics,
Parliamentary Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Zsolt
Nemeth, Party Vice-President Mihalj Varga, and Defense and
Law Enforcement Committee Chairman Janos Lazar. (Note:
Navracsics confides to us that he would also like to see
Party VP Ildiko Pelczne Gal take on a higher profile,
especially regarding women's issues. End Note.) While there
are still wild cards in the party, most notably outspoken MP
and Debrecen Mayor Lajos Kosa and Budapest District XII Mayor
Zoltan Pokorni, the party is building a strong team as it
gears up for the elections of 2009 and 2010.

COMMENT: SURVIVAL OF THE FITTEST


11. (C) A process of natural selection is driving the
parties to change their personnel (ref D) and their
processes. After a year of criticism for "centralization
without efficiency," the PMO is seemingly better able to
support Gyurcsany's personal style and his political
priorities - two things neither the party nor the bureaucracy
has done to date. In his rhetoric and with his actions, the
PM is effectively distancing himself from his own party. The
opposition is moving cautiously in the opposite direction in
terms of its organization, delegating a degree of authority
to designated spokespersons on specific issues. Particularly
in contrast to the pace of change on reform, both parties are
moving very quickly to organize themselves for a long
campaign ahead. End Comment.


FOLEY