2 GUYS NAMED KAROLY: NEW FACES WIELD NEW INFLUENCE

C O N F I D E N T I A L BUDAPEST 001784

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/NSCE; PLEASE PASS TO NSC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/28/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR HU
SUBJECT: 2 GUYS NAMED KAROLY: NEW FACES WIELD NEW INFLUENCE
ON FOREIGN AFFAIRS

Classified By: P/E COUNSELOR ERIC V. GAUDIOSI; REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) Both the government and the opposition are paying
unaccustomed attention to the substance and the stylistics of
foreign policy. This has been particularly evident in their
realignment of personnel, with the Prime Minister's Office
(PMO) and FIDESZ turning to two ironically similar staffers
to help present the best possible face to the diplomatic
community.

GOVERNMENT, OPPOSITION CALL TO THE BULLPEN


2. (C) At the PMO, Ambassador Karoly Banai continues to
impress with his grasp of the issues and his commitment to
the trans-Atlantic relationship. Whereas mere months ago the
GoH often found itself explaining its actions, with Banai's
arrival it has begun to preview its decisions and provide us
with greater input in their policy process. After months of
"misunderstandings," Banai has worked hard to ensure that we
are aware of where Hungary is going ) literally and
figuratively.


3. (C) Karoly Dan is quickly emerging as Banai's opposite
number in the opposition. Formerly stationed at the
Hungarian Embassy in Washington, Dan left the Ministry of
Culture and Education several months ago to focus full-time
on FIDESZ. He has become a fixture at the party's contacts
with the Diplomatic Corps, and has proven able to deliver one
of Hungary's rarest commodities: an answer from Orban. Much
as Banai has a positive working relationship with opposition
MPs in Parliament, Dan also seems to have the (grudging)
respect of government officials.

THE MEANS OF ASCENT


4. (C) Although he still has a small staff and only recently
moved into a permanent office, Banai is quietly making his
presence known. According to sources on the Foreign Affairs
Committee, Banai was instrumental in the recent decision to
move MFA State Secretary Ivan Udvardi out of the Ministry to
an Ambassadorial position abroad. Udvardi, known for his
sharp elbows within the Ministry, was also widely rumored to
oppose both our approach to Kosovo status and the GoH
decision to deploy forces to southern Afghanistan. Banai
supports us on both, and his success in moving ) and thus
effectively removing ) a powerful but dissident voice
attests to his growing influence. So, too, does his success
in overcoming the reported opposition of FM Goncz to the
deployment of Hungarian forces to assist the Dutch contingent
in Afghanistan.


5. (C) That said, Banai cannot be everywhere. We suspect
that he is not fully privy to the GoH's innermost
deliberations on energy issues. Nor has he engaged fully on
the tangled web of interagency coordination of Hungary's PRT
in Afghanistan. Although there are clearly limits on what he
alone can do, he may also absent himself from some issues by
design: we understand, for example, that the task of
improving communication with Bratislava was referred to
Cabinet Minister Kiss following the recent Gyurcsany-Fico
meeting in Lisbon. Banai attended the meeting but managed to
avoid the tasking.


6. (C) Dan, meanwhile, has apparently boxed out
long-standing members of Orban's staff. Zsuzsa Rahoi,
Orban's long-time gate-keeper, is clearly on the outs with
Dan's rise, continuing a transition in the inner circle of
advisors around Orban. Orban is clearly comfortable with
Dan, joking about his relative youth (at age 38) and
referring to "Karchi" (Charlie) as "my cell phone." We do
not believe it is a coincidence that Dan's arrival has been
followed by a more open and efficient relationship, including
Orban's agreement to see visiting Rabbi Arthur Schneier with
little advance notice on the night of a national holiday that
was also his daughter's birthday.


7. (C) Comment: Both the government and the opposition
recognize that there are points to be won (or lost) on
foreign policy issues. Banai is working hard ) and in our
view successfully ) to hold to his initial pledge of "never
surprise and always deliver." Similarly, Dan is using his
experience in their bureaucracy ) and with ours ) to help
FIDESZ best emphasize its foreign policy positions. The
result is a more open flow of communication on our
priorities, and a political leadership that is making foreign
affairs a variable in the domestic political equation. End
Comment.

FOLEY