SCENE-SETTER FOR WHA P/DAS SHAPIRO'S VISIT TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L BUDAPEST 000177

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

WHA FOR P/DAS SHAPIRO; EUR/SCE FOR MICHELLE LABONTE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/06/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV HU
SUBJECT: SCENE-SETTER FOR WHA P/DAS SHAPIRO'S VISIT TO
HUNGARY


Classified By: POL/C ERIC V. GAUDIOSI; REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) Your visit coincides with the first parliamentary
session of the year, which will likely bring renewed friction
between the center-left coalition government of Prime
Minister Ferenc Gyurcsany and the opposition, led by former
PM Viktor Orban. The running battle over the government's
reform program prompted large demonstrations in the fall, and
there is the broad sense that 2007 will be a year of economic
challenges and political conflict.


2. (C) Foreign policy has been largely shielded from this
rancorous debate, with strong consensus behind NATO and EU
membership across the political spectrum, including support
for Hungary's leadership of a Provincial Reconstruction Team
in Afghanistan. But interest in foreign affairs is neither
broad nor deep. Hungary has shown little interest in issues
where it does not perceive a direct national interest;
Budapest is often content to join the EU consensus ... and
subject to criticism from the traditional EU powers when it
does not. This attitude contrasts sharply with the activism
of the Hungarian Ambassador in Washington, and you should be
prepared to find more yellow lights than green in your
meetings here. Your visit will help bring the GoH out of its
shell and to encourage its constructive engagement in the
international community by making the example of its
transition available to others.


3. (C) Cuba is a rare issue on which Budapest has left the
herd, moving quietly and cautiously to promote a democratic
transition. They regard their diplomatic presence in Havana
and their long-standing ties to Cuba as their best assets in
this endeavor, and have resisted initiatives they believe
will win "applause from Washington" at the expense of their
ability to engage on the ground. Their modest steps to date
have aroused considerable ire in Havana, including the recent
withdrawal of the Cuban Ambassador. They have also met with
criticism from other EU capitals. They have pinned
considerable hopes on their ambassador-designate for Cuba, a
former reporter with a strong regional background, who they
believe will bring both a new activism and strong PD
experience to their mission ... if he receives agrement. You
will have the opportunity to meet with him during your call
at the MFA.


4. (C) Venezuela will be another issue of interest in your
meetings. The Hungarian opposition does include
anti-American voices, and Chavez has captured the attention
of those who are concerned by perceived American hegemony or
nostalgic for the Non-Aligned Movement.


5. (C) Your schedule will include the following:

Lunch with Ambassador Istvan Gyarmati: An informal but
influential advisor to the both the MFA and MOD as well as
Director of the International Center for Democratic
Transition (ICDT),Gyarmati jokes that he "has so many hats I
forget which one I'm wearing." He is a committed
trans-Atlanticist, but aware of the importance of keeping the
ICDT distinct from US policy initiatives. The ICDT was
formed in 2005 to serve as a non-partisan source of expertise
for countries in transition, and has become the second-larget
NGO in Hungary, with projects planned in Europe, Asia, and
Africa. It has received strong endorsement from President
Bush and Secretary Rice, but is now focusing on the
challenges of implementing its ambitious agenda. Its
attempts to undertake projects in Cuba have been
star-crossed, with the Cuban government protesting their
project proposals and European partners objecting to both
their focus on Cuba and their perceived collusion with the
U.S. The ICDT is accordingly shifting its focus to a less
controversial proposal in Bolivia, but Gyarmati remains an
excellent source of information regarding both the GoH and
the broader European scene.

Meeting with MPs Janos Horvath (FIDESZ) and Jozsef Kozma
(MSZP): Representing the opposition and the majority,
respectively, Horvath and Kozma will welcome your overview of
Latin American issues with particular focus on Cuba and
Venezuela. Both are members of the Parliamentary Foreign
Affairs Committee, which has generally left its partisan
disputes at the door and worked to establish an informed
voice in the foreign policy debate. Horvath, who ran for
office in Indiana in the 1970s, is staunchly anti-communist
... and rather long-winded. Kozma is a mathematician by
training and serves as one of the Committee's Deputy Chairs.
Both have agreed to take time away from a meeting with their
Bundestag counterparts and a formal committee hearing to meet
with you.

Meeting with MFA State Secretary Laszlo Varkonyi: An
E

extremely effective career diplomat, Varkonyi has been our
primary contact on Cuba in keeping with his "extra-European
Affairs" portfolio, and served until very recently as the
MFA's de facto Political Director during the prolonged
illness of the incumbent. PM Gyurcsany, for example,
deferred to Varkonyi's expertise in a meeting with ASEAN
Ambassadors February 8. He is planning to visit Mexico (and
then the U.S.) in March to meet with the Hungarian
Ambassadors to Mexico, the U.S., and Brazil and will welcome
your take on the perceived "shift to the left" in the region.
(Note: Hungary maintains permanent diplomatic missions only
in selected Latin American countries and has recently
appointed a "roving Ambassador" to travel to five countries
in the region periodically. End note.) He can review
Hungary's current assessment of the situation in Cuba and the
state of play within the EU. He can also update on Hungary's
plans to increase the size of its diplomatic mission in
Havana and its ongoing projects to reach out to the
opposition. Janos Horvat, their Ambassadorial nominee for
Cuba, will join this meeting.

Remarks: We are finalizing plans for you to address a group
of students specializing in foreign policy at Central
European University (CEU),which also enjoys accreditation in
New York State. You should have some down time between your
MFA meetings and this event. The audience will include
students from CEU, from Corvinus University's International
Relations Department, from the North American Studies
Department at Karoli Gaspar College, and from local American
Fulbright scholars and recent IV recipients. They will
welcome your informal remarks on U.S. policy in Latin America
and responses to questions from the audience. We are also
arranging your availability with representatives of the
media, likely with Peter Vass of the publication HVG, who has
written on Cuba. Questions will likely focus on Cuba, on
perceptions of heightened anti-American sentiment in the
region, and on whether the U.S. can play a robust
international role given our efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan.


Dinner at the Ambassador's Residence: We have invited key
Ambassadors including Spanish Ambassador Rafael Valle
Garagorri, Mexican Ambassador Jose Luis Martinez Hernandez,
and Brazilian Ambassador Jose Augusto Lindgren Alves to
discuss the full range of regional issues. Our goal is to
highlight the constructive role Hungary can play by offering
its experience in political and economic transition and to
demonstrate to the Spanish Ambassador that our position on
Cuba in particular is consonant with regional views. You
will have time to meet with Ambassador Foley for drinks
before the dinner in order to review your visit.


6. (U) We are working on the requests forwarded by your
staff and look forward to your arrival.

FOLEY