Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07BUDAPEST1579
2007-09-24 14:35:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Budapest
Cable title:
THE RESIDUE OF DESIGN: FOREIGN VISITS, MUTED
how-toVZCZCXRO2183 PP RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR DE RUEHUP #1579 2671435 ZNY CCCCC ZZH P 241435Z SEP 07 FM AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1972 INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
C O N F I D E N T I A L BUDAPEST 001579
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/NCE; PLEASE PASS TO NSC FOR ADAM STERLING
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/20/2012
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON KDEM HU
SUBJECT: THE RESIDUE OF DESIGN: FOREIGN VISITS, MUTED
PROTESTS, AND CLOSE CONSULTATIONS COMBINE FOR A GOOD WEEK
FOR THE GYURCSANY GOVERNMENT
REF: BUDAPEST 1534
Classified By: P/E COUNSELOR ERIC V. GAUDIOSI; REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)
C O N F I D E N T I A L BUDAPEST 001579
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/NCE; PLEASE PASS TO NSC FOR ADAM STERLING
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/20/2012
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON KDEM HU
SUBJECT: THE RESIDUE OF DESIGN: FOREIGN VISITS, MUTED
PROTESTS, AND CLOSE CONSULTATIONS COMBINE FOR A GOOD WEEK
FOR THE GYURCSANY GOVERNMENT
REF: BUDAPEST 1534
Classified By: P/E COUNSELOR ERIC V. GAUDIOSI; REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)
1. (C) Confronting a week fraught with political risks
during the anniversary of last year's demonstrations, the
Gyurcsany government has rebounded strongly.
2. (C) This week's demonstrations have been non-violent,
with attendance dwindling with each passing day.
Demonstrators themselves have worked to isolate extremist
elements at various events, and the Ministry of Justice and
Law Enforcement is pursuing criminal charges against
individuals allegedly responsible for an abortive plan to
occupy selected ministries. Press reports suggest that a
large FIDESZ rally September 18 was intentionally held
outside downtown Budapest to discourage extremists from
attending, and the opposition's rhetoric continues to focus
on next year's referendum as the principal means to oppose
the government.
3. (C) With French President Sarkozy's visit to Budapest,
Foreign Minister's Goncz's trip to Washington, and the
success of its Nabucco conference (septel),the Gyurcsany
government has raised its international profile and thus
reinforced its domestic legitimacy (reftel).
4. (C) The government's good fortune is in part the residue
of design. The Prime Minister's Chief of Staff, Zoltan Gal,
tells us candidly that the GoH has made a conscious effort to
"avoid misunderstandings" through proactive engagement on
issues such as energy security (septel). He and other senior
officials have pledged themselves to improved consultations
with us to avoid future disconnects, and have warmly welcomed
communication initiated from Washington.
5. (C) Turning to domestic politics, Gal draws three
conclusions from the year since Gyurcany's infamous "lies"
speech and the ensuing demonstrations:
"We're still here and we're staying": Despite admitted
conflicts within the coalition, Gal maintains that the
government "has plans and projects in place" to move forward
on issues ranging from health care to education reform. He
believes that lower growth is "the cost of readjustment" but
believes both the economic indicators ) and with them the
MSzP's approval ratings ) have bottomed out and are now on
the rise.
"The opposition is still here and they are staying": While
lamenting the reflexive disagreements that dominate public
life, Gal denounced the opposition for having "no programs
other than playing on popular tensions." Without FIDESZ's
insistence on seeing the far right as a source of electoral
support, he alleges, demonstrations would be smaller and
isolated hooliganism would be "a simple (criminal) matter for
the police."
"The country is still here and it is staying": Gal believes
the first round of reforms has been accepted, albeit
grudgingly. He reports positive feedback from International
Financial Institutions and Allied capitals re the
government's reform agenda, and believes the coming months
will see "peaks and valleys" but predicts "an upward trend."
6. (C) Comment: Despite Gal's upbeat assessment, the road
ahead is still heavily mined. Recent economic indicators
have been mixed, with real wages down over six percent
year-on-year and growth stagnant. An ongoing investigation
into the alleged diversion of funds from the Ministry of
Youth and Sport to the MSzP under Gyurcsany's tenure as
Minister has the potential to snowball into a broader
scandal. Every element of the government's reform agenda is
likely to prove controversial, and the cumulative impact on
the public ) and on the MSzP itself - is difficult to
predict (septel). That said, a week that had the government
bracing itself for the worst has turned out unexpectedly
well. Much of that represents the culmination of hard work
over the past months to take our concerns into account, to
expand our consultations, and to focus on common interests.
End Comment.
FOLEY
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/NCE; PLEASE PASS TO NSC FOR ADAM STERLING
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/20/2012
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON KDEM HU
SUBJECT: THE RESIDUE OF DESIGN: FOREIGN VISITS, MUTED
PROTESTS, AND CLOSE CONSULTATIONS COMBINE FOR A GOOD WEEK
FOR THE GYURCSANY GOVERNMENT
REF: BUDAPEST 1534
Classified By: P/E COUNSELOR ERIC V. GAUDIOSI; REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)
1. (C) Confronting a week fraught with political risks
during the anniversary of last year's demonstrations, the
Gyurcsany government has rebounded strongly.
2. (C) This week's demonstrations have been non-violent,
with attendance dwindling with each passing day.
Demonstrators themselves have worked to isolate extremist
elements at various events, and the Ministry of Justice and
Law Enforcement is pursuing criminal charges against
individuals allegedly responsible for an abortive plan to
occupy selected ministries. Press reports suggest that a
large FIDESZ rally September 18 was intentionally held
outside downtown Budapest to discourage extremists from
attending, and the opposition's rhetoric continues to focus
on next year's referendum as the principal means to oppose
the government.
3. (C) With French President Sarkozy's visit to Budapest,
Foreign Minister's Goncz's trip to Washington, and the
success of its Nabucco conference (septel),the Gyurcsany
government has raised its international profile and thus
reinforced its domestic legitimacy (reftel).
4. (C) The government's good fortune is in part the residue
of design. The Prime Minister's Chief of Staff, Zoltan Gal,
tells us candidly that the GoH has made a conscious effort to
"avoid misunderstandings" through proactive engagement on
issues such as energy security (septel). He and other senior
officials have pledged themselves to improved consultations
with us to avoid future disconnects, and have warmly welcomed
communication initiated from Washington.
5. (C) Turning to domestic politics, Gal draws three
conclusions from the year since Gyurcany's infamous "lies"
speech and the ensuing demonstrations:
"We're still here and we're staying": Despite admitted
conflicts within the coalition, Gal maintains that the
government "has plans and projects in place" to move forward
on issues ranging from health care to education reform. He
believes that lower growth is "the cost of readjustment" but
believes both the economic indicators ) and with them the
MSzP's approval ratings ) have bottomed out and are now on
the rise.
"The opposition is still here and they are staying": While
lamenting the reflexive disagreements that dominate public
life, Gal denounced the opposition for having "no programs
other than playing on popular tensions." Without FIDESZ's
insistence on seeing the far right as a source of electoral
support, he alleges, demonstrations would be smaller and
isolated hooliganism would be "a simple (criminal) matter for
the police."
"The country is still here and it is staying": Gal believes
the first round of reforms has been accepted, albeit
grudgingly. He reports positive feedback from International
Financial Institutions and Allied capitals re the
government's reform agenda, and believes the coming months
will see "peaks and valleys" but predicts "an upward trend."
6. (C) Comment: Despite Gal's upbeat assessment, the road
ahead is still heavily mined. Recent economic indicators
have been mixed, with real wages down over six percent
year-on-year and growth stagnant. An ongoing investigation
into the alleged diversion of funds from the Ministry of
Youth and Sport to the MSzP under Gyurcsany's tenure as
Minister has the potential to snowball into a broader
scandal. Every element of the government's reform agenda is
likely to prove controversial, and the cumulative impact on
the public ) and on the MSzP itself - is difficult to
predict (septel). That said, a week that had the government
bracing itself for the worst has turned out unexpectedly
well. Much of that represents the culmination of hard work
over the past months to take our concerns into account, to
expand our consultations, and to focus on common interests.
End Comment.
FOLEY