YOUTH MOVEMENT: THE PARTIES TARGET YOUNG VOTERS IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L BUDAPEST 001383

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT PLEASE PASS TO NSC FOR ADAM STERLING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/25/2012
TAGS: PGOV KDEM HU
SUBJECT: YOUTH MOVEMENT: THE PARTIES TARGET YOUNG VOTERS IN
PREPARATION FOR 2009-10 ELECTIONS


Classified By: P/E COUNSELOR ERIC V. GAUDIOSI; REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (SBU) With the 2009 European Parliamentary elections fast
approaching, Hungary's political parties are working hard to
identify and mobilize potential supporters.

GENERATION WHY?


2. (C) The parties are principally focusing on the same
narrow band of young voters, with officials across the
political spectrum privately expressing concern that younger
Hungarians ) themselves a shrinking demographic at a time of
declining birth rates even in developed areas) are
increasingly tuning out. Although Orban has expressed his
confidence that "the future belongs to FIDESZ" given polling
indicating a conservative shift among Hungarians under the
age of 30, others on the right are not so sure. Polling
shows what one observer described as "apathy as the biggest
winner," and conservative commentator Tamas Magyarics
believes that Orban's assertion is "based on the assumption
that the young won't change their politics ( something Orban
himself has certainly done." Anita Orban, a young political
columnist and one-time party stalwart, has grown increasingly
disenchanted with FIDESZ's present leadership, confessing
that she is becoming "more pragmatic as the years go by."


3. (C) The parties are gearing up for fierce competition for
young voters. FIDESZ has not one but two youth-oriented
groups, with estimates of their membership ranging up to
14,000. Ibolya David's MDF has done well with its outreach
efforts, and the party is making a great deal of its stand on
fiscal responsibility and its commitment to invest in
Hungary's future. SzDSz rivals Janos Koka and Gabor Fodor
have each started youth groups within the party. Fodor has
increased his public profile with his early performance as
Environment Minister, which has made him a prominent player
on the issues he believes can mobilize younger voters. For
his part, Koka believes his own youth gives him an inside
track at attracting the support his party desperately needs,
but may find it difficult to capture young supporters without
further alienating the SZDSZ's traditional base. Curiously,
it is the MSZP, led by former Communist Youth Association
President Gyurcsany, which seems least interested in
cultivating younger voters. Given its own aging base, this
oversight may come back to haunt them.

HUNGARY'S ENDANGERED SPECIES: SWING VOTERS


4. (C) Many politicians here believe that voters are born,
not made. Looking back on the 2006 elections, some still
joke that "both swing voters voted for Gyurcsany." Although
some polling suggests a new willingness by MSZP voters to
support the opposition, FIDESZ VP Zoltan Pokorni estimates
that no more than 10 percent of voters can be swayed to vote
across party lines, anticipating that his party will "lose as
well as gain support" if this happens. Hungarian campaigns
tend to focus less on issues and more on ideology, mobilizing
the parties' respective bases rather than reaching out to new
target audiences. As MSZP supporters demonstrated in last
year's local elections, Hungarian voters have been more
likely to stay home than to swing their support to other
parties. That said, the smaller parties especially cannot
afford to leave any stone unturned in their search for votes.


MORE HUNGARIANS = MORE VOTERS


5. (C) Confronting greater competition for a shrinking
electorate, politicians here may once again turn to "new"
Hungarians as the greatest potential source of new Hungarian
voters. The parties have been more vocal of late in
expressing their solidarity with ethnic Hungarians abroad,
and President Solyom has put dual citizenship on the agenda
of his meetings with Ukrainian and Croatian officials.
Statements which downplay the significance of the issue, such
as recent comments from both Gyurcsany and Koka emphasizing a
common future for all Hungarians within the EU, have met with
sharp criticism, and the right remains convinced that
securing voting rights for ethnic Hungarians would make them
the "permanent majority." As the Spring referendum and the
next national elections approach, we cannot preclude an
attempt to resurrect this issue as Hungary's parties grow
less concerned with regional repercussions and more focused
on their own political fortunes.
FOLEY