Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07BUDAPEST1376
2007-08-27 14:43:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Budapest
Cable title:  

SCENE-SETTER FOR THE VISIT OF CODEL SIRES TO

Tags:  PREL PGOV PHUM KDEM 
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VZCZCXYZ0051
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHUP #1376/01 2391443
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 271443Z AUG 07
FM AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1787
UNCLAS BUDAPEST 001376 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR H, EUR/NCE AND EUR/PGI; PLEASE PASS TO
CONGRESSMAN SIRES AND CONGRESSMEN DIAZ-BALLERT

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM KDEM
SUBJECT: SCENE-SETTER FOR THE VISIT OF CODEL SIRES TO
HUNGARY

REF: STATE 117970

UNCLAS BUDAPEST 001376

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR H, EUR/NCE AND EUR/PGI; PLEASE PASS TO
CONGRESSMAN SIRES AND CONGRESSMEN DIAZ-BALLERT

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM KDEM
SUBJECT: SCENE-SETTER FOR THE VISIT OF CODEL SIRES TO
HUNGARY

REF: STATE 117970


1. Embassy Budapest warmly welcomes the visit of Codel Sires
to Hungary.


2. You will arrive as the body politic prepares for
Parliament's return to formal session in mid-September. Most
observers predict a busy ) and possibly hot ) fall, with
continued friction between the Gyurcsany government and the
opposition.


3. Despite conflict over issues ranging from economic reform
to energy security, Cuba policy enjoys broad consensus across
Hungary's fractious political spectrum. GoH officials will
tell you proudly ) albeit privately ) that Hungary has
"left the EU mainstream" to take a more active stand in
promoting a democratic transition by working both within the
Union and with the Cuban opposition. Their new Ambassador in
Havana, a journalist and former exchange student in Cuba who
exemplifies the strong personal ties between Hungary and
Cuba, has brought a new activism to their efforts. The MFA is
increasing its staff on the island in order to expand their
outreach, and believes that sharing experiences of their own
peaceful political and economic transition is the most
effective approach to promote a transition "from within."


4. They believe, however, that their physial presence is
key to their ability to affect change, and have avoided
actions or statements which they believe would jeopardize
their diplomatic mission there or provoke open conflict with
other EU member states. Cuba remains far from Hungary's
traditional sphere of influence (or interest). Although the
political parties have shown increasing interest in the
issue, the government will likely proceed deliberately, along
lines that complement our policy.


5. The GoH's recent decision to accept the resettlement of
30 protected migrants from Guantanamo is a case in point.
After extensive deliberation and close consultation with us,
the government is moving forward in response to our request
and with our financial support, with arrival expected in
September. Although the decision enjoys support from all
parliamentary parties, the government has maintained a low
profile on the issue and we have agreed to follow their lead.

When the decision was criticized in the Cuban state media,
the GoH framed its decision as a humanitarian initiative
within the parameters of EU policy. They will welcome your
expression of appreciation, but prefer that we maintain a
restrained posture in any public statements.


6. Your schedule will begin with a meeting with Prime
Minister and MSZP Party President Ferenc Gyurcsany following
lunch at the Ambassador's residence. With his reform agenda
largely stalled, Gyurcsany is under attack by the opposition
and under scrutiny even within his own coalition government.
Although his focus remains primarily on domestic issues, he
will appreciate your recognition of Hungary's efforts on
Cuba, particularly its decision to accept the protected
migrants, as well as their leadership of a Provincial
Reconstruction Team (PRT) in Afghanistan. He will likely
reiterate his commitment to "Western values," and may well
use your visit to underscore Hungary's interest in the Visa
Waiver Program, our leading bilateral issue.


7. Hungarian Democratic Forum (MDF) President Ibolya David
is a former Minister of Justice and the most personally
popular political figure in Hungary. Her party has staked
out an independent position, focusing its message on
promoting fiscal responsibility and opposing populist
rhetoric and criticizing both the government and the
principal opposition party. Support for transparency and the
middle class are key themes for the MDF, and Dr. David is
also working to raise her international profile. She has
spoken out on Cuba and met publicly with opposition figures
on the margins of a recent conference in Budapest.


8. GoH officials, Members of Parliament, and opinion leaders
have been invited to a reception in your honor on the evening
of August 29. We hope that MP Matyas Eorsi, who recently
traveled to Cuba on a Freedom House program, will attend and
share his experiences from his visit.


9. Foreign Minister Kinga Goncz has taken a very personal
interest in Cuba, and will emphasize Hungary's "moral
responsibility" to share its experiences from its own
transition. Her ministry has been the driving force behind
the refugee resettlement, which represents a bold step for
the GoH.


10. The SzDSz party traces its roots back to the
anti-communist dissident movement of the 1970s and many of
their members feel a strong connection to the Cuban
opposition. As the junior coalition party, they are working
to distinguish themselves from the MSZP on key issues and
their leader, Minister of Economy Janos Koka, has been
outspoken in support of a democratic transition in Cuba
(including in an op-ed in the Miami press earlier this year).
Istvan Szent-Ivanyi, a Member of the European Parliament, is
one of the SzDSz's leading voices on foreign affairs and a
committed Atlanticist. He can discuss Cuba in the broader
context of European views during your meeting.


11. International Center for Democratic Transition (ICDT)
Director Istvan Gyarmati is a former diplomat and remains a
key informal advisor to the MSZP leadership. The ICDT is
active around the globe, and Gyarmati can detail their
project proposals for Cuba over lunch.


12. Your official schedule will conclude with a meeting with
opposition FIDESZ Party President (and former Prime Minister)
Viktor Orban. Rising to prominence as an anti-Soviet student
activist, Orban has moved his party to the right over the
course of the past decade. His party continues to oppose the
Gyurcsany government on all fronts. Orban has expressed
support for a strong trans-Atlantic agenda, and FIDESZ has
seized on the Cuba issue in particular, with Orban and other
party leaders "adopting" political prisoners to help
publicize their cases internationally. He may use your
meeting to raise his interest in high-level meetings in the
US later this year, potentially in his capacity as
Vice-President of the European Peoples Party (EPP).


13. We look forward to welcoming you in person.







FOLEY