Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07BUDAPEST1179
2007-07-20 14:36:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Budapest
Cable title:  

HUNGARIAN VIEWS ON UPCOMING GAERC

Tags:  EUN ENRG ETRD ETTC KPAL PGOV PREL SOCI HU 
pdf how-to read a cable
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DE RUEHUP #1179/01 2011436
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 201436Z JUL 07 ZFF4
FM AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1610
INFO RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L BUDAPEST 001179 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/NCE MICHELLE LABONTE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/20/2017
TAGS: EUN ENRG ETRD ETTC KPAL PGOV PREL SOCI HU
SUBJECT: HUNGARIAN VIEWS ON UPCOMING GAERC

REF: STATE 98749

Classified By: Acting DCM Eric Gaudiosi. Reason: 1.4(b) and (d)

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SUMMARY
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C O N F I D E N T I A L BUDAPEST 001179

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/NCE MICHELLE LABONTE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/20/2017
TAGS: EUN ENRG ETRD ETTC KPAL PGOV PREL SOCI HU
SUBJECT: HUNGARIAN VIEWS ON UPCOMING GAERC

REF: STATE 98749

Classified By: Acting DCM Eric Gaudiosi. Reason: 1.4(b) and (d)

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) Hungarian preparations for the upcoming GAERC finds
significant harmony with US positions on key issues. Kosovo
remains in the Hungarian spotlight with concerns over
possible impact on ethnic Hungarians in the Vojvodina with
the inevitability of Kosovo's independence. Encouraging the
EU to reinforce Serbia's way forward to future EU membership,
as well as efforts to enhance democratic reforms with "our
strategic partner" Ukraine, highlight Hungary's approach with
their two neighbors. Iran is not a promising situation.
Praising the President's recent speech on the Middle East,
Hungary supports increased international action now; on
Lebanon, France leads an EU effort as well as the EU crisis
response in Darfur. Hungary believes a New EU Treaty may be
possible by December. End Summary


2. (C) On July 19, POLOFF discussed anticipated agenda items
for the upcoming GAERC on 23 July with Zsolt Pataki, MFA EU
Foreign and Security Policy Department Head. His responses
by subject follow.

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KOSOVO IN THE HUNGARIAN SPOTLIGHT
--------------


3. (C) Kosovo: The GOH would like to see a UNSC resolution as
the legal basis for any ESDP mission in the region. That
said, a unilateral declaration of independence appears more
likely at this point and "we have to get prepared for it."
The GOH promotes the approach used with Montenegro last year;
a referendum, followed by a common EU position and bilateral
recognition by individual EU member states. A
common EU/NATO position would provide an umbrella under which
Hungary could move forward on recognition of Kosovo
independence, although preferably not in the first wave.


4. (C) Continuing his discussion of Kosovo, Pataki noted that

Hungarian minorities living in the Vojvodina express concern
about the situation in Kosovo, fearing that Kosovo
independence will further radicalize nationalistic groups in
Serbia against minorities. Pataki stressed that relations
between Hungarians and Serbs living in the Vojvodina are
good. He noted however, in the past, when Serbs from other
areas of the Balkans moved into the area tensions increased.
With repatriation efforts under for
those Serbs coming back from Western Europe, and with the
Vojvodina as an attractive location due to favorable economic
factors, the potential for ethnic confrontations in the
region increases. (Note: FIDESZ sources tell us that their
contacts in the Hungarian community in the Vojvodina are
advising them that "Hungary should not be the first" to
recognize Kosovo, but have not argued that Budapest should
not do so. End Note.)


5. (C) Hungary's message to its EU partners: send further
clear messages to Serbia that it has a future in the EU by
accepting, in Pataki,s words, "the inevitability of Kosovo
independence." Signing the Stabilization and Association
Agreement several weeks ago was a good first step;
implementation of the agreement and a roadmap to EU
integration must follow.


6. (C) On Albania, the GoH prefers to await upcoming
election results, evaluate the situation, and then decide on
next steps.

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UKRAINE, A STRATEGIC PARTNER
--------------


7. (C) Despite the current state of affairs, Hungary views
Ukraine as a strategic partner. Hungary believes that the
possibility for EU membership provides an incentive for
democratic change but the Ukrainians must decide how this
relationship develops. With the current Partnership and
Cooperation Agreement expiring next year, development of an
enhanced agreement should be a priority EU goal.

--------------
IRAN, LITTLE PROGRESS
--------------


8. (C) The GOH awaits results of recent Iranian commitments
to cooperate with the IAEA, but sees little
hope for progress.


-------------- --------------
MIDDLE EAST AND LEBANON, SEPARATE AGENDA ITEMS
-------------- --------------


9. (C) While the recent developments in the Middle East
Peace process are not promising, recognition of the new
Palestinian government, support for Abbas and unacceptability
of Hamas, is the only way forward. Pataki expressed a very
positive response to the President's 16 July speech and
stated the GOH fully supports increased efforts by the
international community, in particular, through the auspices
of the Quartet to convince regional leaders to take a
positive role in these efforts while encouraging Israel to
modify its policies and financially support the Abbas regime.
Pataki concurred with the US view that deployment of an
international force to the area would be premature in advance
of any new diplomatic efforts.


10. (C) On Lebanon, Pataki stated it will be separate agenda
item, commenting that it is on the brink of civil war.
Noting the current constitutional crisis with the
presidential mandate about to expire, the EU position is to
support the Siniora government. France is leading the EU
effort and this week held a meeting outside Paris with
representatives of the various parties to work out a way
forward on the process to select the next president. Whether
they will have any clout on return to Lebanon to influence
their parties remains a question. Pataki also stated the
international community needs to make a greater
effort to cu supply lines supporting Hezbollah.

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SUDAN/DARFUR
--------------


11. (C) Pataki stated the GOH supports the hybrid UN/AU
force and emphasized that the Sudanese government must keep
its commitments to the peace plan. Pataki noted that the EU
is currently working on a crisis management concept and plans
are in the works for an EDSP mission in Chad. According to
Pataki, France will provide about half of the planned
2000-3000 troops, opining that, although no commitments yet
made, any Hungarian contribution would be fairly small, most
likely consisting of medical personnel and forces involved in
border monitoring tasks.

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CHRISTMAS PRESENT - NEW EU TREATY?
--------------


12. (C) Noting the official opening of the conference to
work on a new EU treaty, Pataki stated his belief that a new
treaty will be signed by the end of the current Portuguese
Presidency and ready for ratification in 2008. While Hungary
would most likely accomplish the ratification process through
the parliament, Pataki stated several countries, among them
France, the Netherlands, Denmark, the UK and possibly
Ireland, would face the prospects of a national referendum.

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COMMENT
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13. (C) During a very busy final week preparing the FM for
the upcoming GAERC, Pataki committed almost an hour outlining
for the POLOFF the GOH position on the agenda items.
Although not the largest member in the choir of 27,
Hungarian EU interlocutors appear ready have their voice
heard on the issues at hand, singing for the most part from
the same sheet of music as the US as MFA State Secretary
Varkonyi recently assured Assistant Secretary Fried (reftel).

FOLEY