Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07BUDAPEST1157
2007-07-17 12:47:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Budapest
Cable title:  

HUNGARIAN FOREIGN POLICY UNDER FIRE

Tags:  PREL PGOV HU 
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VZCZCXRO4742
PP RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHUP #1157/01 1981247
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 171247Z JUL 07
FM AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1587
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BUDAPEST 001157 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT PLEASE PASS TO NSC FOR ADAM STERLING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/15/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV HU
SUBJECT: HUNGARIAN FOREIGN POLICY UNDER FIRE

Classified By: ACTING DCM ERIC V. GAUDIOSI; REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BUDAPEST 001157

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT PLEASE PASS TO NSC FOR ADAM STERLING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/15/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV HU
SUBJECT: HUNGARIAN FOREIGN POLICY UNDER FIRE

Classified By: ACTING DCM ERIC V. GAUDIOSI; REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (U) Just over a year since the second Gyurcsany
administration took office, parties, think tanks and the
media are evaluating the performance of the government during
a turbulent year that many say has changed the dynamics of
politics more than any other since the system change.
Although the country,s foreign affairs are not scrutinized
by the public as much as some other areas of government,
criticism of this aspect of the Gyurcsany administration,s
work has been remarkably steady and uniform while support has
been remarkably muted. This cable examines some of this
criticism and introduces some of the new players on the
government,s foreign policy team.

--------------
The Vision Thing
--------------


2. (SBU) Commenting on a year of foreign policy, the
conservative online journal Budapest Analyses concurs with
several other, mainly opposition, sources when it suggests
that Hungary,s foreign policy remains invisible and passive.
Going further, Budapest Analyses speaks of &the devastation
of the Foreign Ministry8 by the current administration:
&the essence of the prime minister,s foreign policy is
exhausted in the creation of good PR for his government
abroad and in providing lucrative diplomatic positions for
his (business partners).8


3. (SBU) Budapest Analyses complains, in general, of a lack
of vision in foreign policy; and specifically, of unclear
goals in certain key issues. &Hungary does not have a view
on the deployment of an American missile defense system in
Europe. It is not clear either whether the Hungarian
government supports the Nabucco, or the Blue Stream
pipelines, or both. (() There is no Hungarian stance with
regard to the Ahtisaari-plan and the issue of Kosovo's
independence. As regards the issue of Turkey joining the
European Union - no Hungarian point of view exists,8 says
Budapest Analyses. Conservative commentator Anita Orban (no
relation - as she hastens to add) agrees, dismissing the
MFA's public silence on the Kosovo issue as "ridiculous."


4. (C) In contrast to the frequent and pointed criticism

from opposition figures such as Parliamentary Foreign Affairs
Committee Chair Zsolt Nemeth, support for the government's
policy is both rare and tepid. Nemeth's Deputy, MSZP MP
Vilmos Szabo, privately sighs and grimaces in discussing the
government's missteps on foreign policy, and European Affairs
Committee Chair Matyas Eorsi (SzDSz) believes Hungary is
"wandering in the desert like Moses."

--------------
New Faces on the Team
--------------


5. (U) After long months of rumored changes in the Prime
Minister's Office, Gyurcsany has tapped Karoly Banai as Chief
Foreign and Security Policy Advisor. Forty-four year old
Banai previously served as Hungary,s ambassador on the
European Union,s Political and Security Committee and as DCM
at their NATO Mission; he will now work out of the Office of
the Prime Minister with responsibility for "all issues
related to foreign and security policy." A soft-spoken
career diplomat who, since his appointment, makes frequent
appearances with the Prime Minister, Banai has made a very
favorable first impression all around for his candor and for
his strong Atlanticist views. (Note: On CFE, for example,
Banai has commented that he is "only too happy to disagree
with Russia" in order to demonstrate that "we stand
unequivocally with our Allies. End Note.) Nonetheless,
assuming a position that has essentially been vacant for a
number of years, he has what one observer called &an
impossible job.8


6. (SBU) With no independent political power, no real staff
- or even a permanent office, and a boss prone to impromptu
remarks on important questions, Banai may be doomed to
failure, some believe. The scope of responsibilities listed
as belonging to Banai has also raised the question, &what
will the MFA do?8 (To which many in the diplomatic
community rejoin &what are they doing now?8) An Embassy
contact at the MFA familiar with Banai has indicated that
their work will not change following the appointment of
Banai. &Karoly Banai will serve more to orient the Prime
Minister8 and is, our contact claimed, actually good for the
MFA, providing an added channel to the Prime Minister.


7. (C) Another variable in the Gyurcsany foreign policy
equation is Alexandra Dobolyi, Member of the European

BUDAPEST 00001157 002 OF 002


Parliament ) and recently named International Policy
Director and International Secretary of the Hungarian
Socialist Party (MSZP). As an MEP since 2004, thirty-five
year old Dobolyi certainly brings a much higher profile )
and considerable baggage - to the position. Despite her
obvious ambition, there will likely be limits on how much she
can get done at the MSZP while shuttling between Brussels and
Budapest. Though she considers the Foreign Minister a feeble
opponent for influence over Hungarian policy, Dobolyi has
herself been weakened by long-standing and widespread rumors
re personal life, and by recent public charges that she
falsified her CV.

--------------
And New Teams in the Game
--------------


8. (U) On an institutional level, the Prime Minister
receives help from several different bodies. The Teleki
Laszlo Institute ) Center for Foreign Policy Studies, a
conservative-leaning organization, has metamorphosed into the
Hungarian Institute of International Affairs, albeit working
with a slightly different staff. It receives central
funding, is loosely affiliated with the Ministry of Foreign
Affairs, and conducts research on basically every aspect of
Hungary,s Foreign Policy. Pal Dunai, the Institute,s
sardonic director, notes that most of his time is spent
writing to the Foreign Minister to follow through on funding
commitments. He has been frustrated by his lack of traction,
commenting that he only gets two responses: the ones that say
&I,m sorry I can,t help ( and the ones that say I,m very
sorry I can,t help.8


8. (U) In March, the Prime Minister announced the creation
of a Council on Foreign and Security Policy. Headed by
mild-mannered international lawyer Laszlo Valki, the group of
eight noted scholars, with expertise covering the Arab world,
security policy, economics, Russia and the Balkans, is
understood to meet regularly with the Prime Minister. Valki
has also been used with some frequency to undertake special
missions for the PM, such as his recent trip to Washington.
He and Banai appear to have a good rapport, with Banai
jokingly describing Valki's role as "recommending solutions
... and then recommending solutions to the problems his
original recommendations cause."

--------------
Comment: What Does Gyurcsany Want?
--------------


9. (C) Our contacts are divided on the question of just what
type of foreign policy Gyurcsany really wants. Opposition
sources including FIDESZ faction leader Tibor Navracsics
suggest that the government's statement and actions on Russia
result from "a deal" with Moscow to include funding for the
MSZP. Even on issues such as Afghanistan and Cuba, FIDESZ
has positioned itself to outflank the government by taking
even more forward-leaning positions. Constructive critics
like Eorsi and Dunai believe that Gyurcsany genuinely wants
an activist foreign policy but is now "too isolated
personally and eroded politically" to take action. Always
inclined to see foreign policy as an extension of domestic
politics, under pressure at home he has been willing to
sacrifice substance for stylistics. (His recent statements
on the EU constitution, for example, angered Poland in
exchange for a brief visit by German Chancellor Merkel.)
Others in the MFA believe that the PM has concentrated power
in his own office at the Ministry's expense, getting "the
foreign policy he wants." Critics across the political
spectrum believe, however, that it is not necessarily the
foreign policy Hungary needs. As Gyurcsany prepares for
another trip to Russia and another meeting with Putin, he
will carry with him A/S Fried's recent message that "Hungary
needs to find its voice." First, it will have to find its
bearings. End Comment.


FOLEY