SCENESETTER FOR CODEL ORTIZ VISIT TO ROMANIA

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SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/NCE AND H

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OREP PREL RO
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR CODEL ORTIZ VISIT TO ROMANIA
FEBRUARY 19-20



1. (SBU) Embassy Bucharest warmly welcomes you to Romania,
and is eager for you to tour what will soon be the
US-Romanian forward operating facilities in Constanta.
President Traian Basescu has championed a strong strategic
partnership with the United States, committing Romania to a
trans-Atlantic foreign policy focus to match its recent
membership in the European Union. In fact, the US-Romanian
partnership in the security and defense field is second to
none. Romania is one of our staunchest allies in the global
war on terrorism and in international peace support
operations, providing troops and strategic airlift in
Afghanistan, Iraq and the Balkans. It also prides itself on
its participation in NATO's Operation Active Endeavor and
various UN missions throughout Africa.


2. (SBU) The joint use of the Mihail Kogalniceanu Air Base
and the 34th Mechanized Infantry Battalion base that you will
be visiting was made possible by the bilateral Defense
Cooperation Agreement signed by Secretary Rice and Foreign
Minister Ungureanu in December 2005. It was a landmark event
in our relationship, and set the stage for still more
cooperation in the future. Romanian Defense Minister
Frunzaverde just completed a trip to Washington where he had
a series of very productive meetings with Defense, State and
NSC officials. Your visit is another opportunity to
underscore the importance of the US-Romanian partnership in
helping build cooperation and promote Euro-Atlantic values in
the Black Sea region. Romania's National Security Strategy
aims at promoting greater U.S. and NATO strategic involvement
in the Black Sea region, which represents in Bucharest's eyes
a zone of potential instability, ranging from the so-called
"frozen conflicts" to trafficking in drugs, persons and
weapons. Romania is traditionally also interested in
counterbalancing Moscow's influence in its neighborhood;
President Basescu and other Romanian officials have spoken
out forcefully in recent months about Europe's need to
diversify its energy supplies and open the door to various
"Southern Corridor" projects that traverse Romania and other
countries in the region.


3. (SBU) While the US and Romania continue to advance the
partnership both within NATO and in other initiatives, like
the Global Peace Support Operations Initiative and the
Proliferation Security Initiative, the domestic political
scene has been particularly tumultuous of late. The
center-right coalition government has been hamstrung by sharp
conflicts between President Basescu and Prime Minister
Tariceanu. The two leaders' accusations and
counter-accusations of corruption, influence peddling, and
oligarchic tendencies have become more volatile since the
country's EU accession in January. Not all of their dust-ups
have been limited to domestic issues. Last June, for
instance, the Prime Minister, pushed by radicals in his
Liberal Party who sought to embarrass Basescu, announced a
plan to withdraw Romanian troops from Iraq without consulting
the President or Romania's allies. While Basescu and Defense
Minister Frunzaverde have confirmed Romania will continue to
meet its commitments in Iraq, some Liberals still hope to
foster a parliamentary debate over Romania's troop
deployments.


4. (SBU) Taking advantage of the volatile rhetoric within
the governing coalition, the opposition Social Democrats on
February 12, filed a motion to suspend President Basescu for
30 days on grounds of constitutional abuse of office, with
the aim of removing him from office permanently in a
subsequent referendum. There are apparently sufficient
opposition votes in Parliament to make the threat a real one.
Part of Basescu's political problems are self-made; he was
described famously by one opposition politician as "a lone
wolf" and his style is direct and confrontational. At the
same time, he retains a level of popular support that is
unmatched by any other single politician. It remains to be
seen whether he can face down both his critics within the
governing alliance (including a Prime Minister who has
considerable authority as the head of government) and his
diehard opponents in Parliament on both the right and the
left. The same configuration of center-left politicians from
the last government, former Communists, right-wing
nationalists and regional "barons" are trying to unseat the
Minister of Justice, whose efforts to fight corruption and
reform the judiciary have earned plaudits both in Brussels
and in Washington.


5. (SBU) Just a month after its entry into the European
Union, Romania is facing the prospect of months of
uncertainty and instability that could raise anew questions
about the country's readiness to move beyond its legacy of

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post-Communist, oligarchic business and political
interactions. The good news is that, for the moment, there
is still broad acceptance in the political class and among
Romanians as a whole, in the importance of Romania's
strategic partnership with the U.S. Also, the current
political instability has stayed within legal and
constitutional bounds, however torrid the rhetoric and vivid
the theatrics. Meanwhile, we have emphasized that while we
cannot comment on the constitutional debate itself, it is
important that the political issues be worked out
democratically, transparently and responsibly. Likewise,
Romania must continue to build on the progress it has made in
recent years in fighting corruption and strengthening the
rule of law. Nor would we welcome a turn of events
politically which would leave irresponsible actors like the
extremist head of the "Greater Romania" Party in a position
to benefit from the crisis. With one of the fastest growing
economies in Europe, a talented workforce, and a strategic
location on the Eastern rim of both NATO and the EU, Romania
has a lot of positives with which to work, if only its
political class can overcome its reliance on selfish,
zero-sum politics.
TAUBMAN