APATHY GETS BIGGEST VOTE SHARE IN ROMANIAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L BUCHAREST 001304

SIPDIS

C O R R E C T E D COPY//ADDING COUNTRY TAG//

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/NCE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/25/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV RO
SUBJECT: APATHY GETS BIGGEST VOTE SHARE IN ROMANIAN
ELECTIONS

REF: BUCHAREST 1296

Classified By: Political Counselor Ted Tanoue for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (
d)


1. (SBU) Summary: Less than 30 percent of registered voters
bothered to vote in European Parliament (EP) elections held
on November 25, with an even smaller number of voters
participating in a referendum called by President Basescu on
implementing a uninominal voting system in Romania. With 85
percent of votes counted, it appears only five parties will
have representation in the European Parliament, including the
governing PNL and UDMR and the opposition PD, PSD, and PLD.
Independent candidate Laszlo Tokes also secured an EP seat.
The biggest upset losers included the right-extremist parties
PRM and PNG (although Gigi Becali's PNG remains just shy of
the 5 percent threshold). While all the major political
parties have claimed victory, President Basescu's effort to
leverage the referendum to increase the PD's vote share fell
short of the mark. End summary.


2. (SBU) On the morning of November 26, the Central Electoral
Bureau released a partial vote tally based on 85 percent of
the votes. The two major opposition parties finished first
and second, with the Democratic Party (PD) winning around 29
percent of votes, followed by the Social-Democratic Party
(PSD) with 22 percent. The governing National-Liberal Party
(PNL) received 13 percent, and the Democratic Union of
Hungarians from Romania (UDMR) just barely made the 5 percent
threshold with slightly less than 6 percent of the vote. The
election also saw a good showing by the breakaway pro-Basescu
Liberal-Democratic Party, which received around 8 percent of
the votes. Independent Magyar candidate Laszlo Tokes
garnered 3.63 percent (passing the 2.8 percent threshold for
independent candidates). The biggest losers appear to be the
two extremist parties: Corneliu Vadim Tudor's Greater Romania
Party (PRM) which received only 4.15 percent of votes and
Gigi Becali's New Generation Party (PNG) with 4.87 percent.
Other parties that failed to make the cut include Dan
Voiculescu's Conservative Party, which received 2.82 percent
of votes counted.


3. (SBU) Basescu's referendum vote on electoral reforms saw
only 25.52 percent of voters participating, far below the 50
percent plus one threshold for a valid referendum vote.
However, more than 80 percent of those who did vote said
"yes" to the referendum. Major political leaders, including
PM Calin Popescu-Tariceanu and former President Ion Iliescu,
ostentatiously boycotted the referendum and urged voters to
do the same. President Basescu in a public statement November
25 expressed his disappointment in the referendum results,
noting that the low turnout should be taken as a "lesson" not
just for the whole political class, but for himself as well.
Basescu acknowledged that he had not taken sufficient time to
explain the intricacies of the proposed electoral reform
package to the public. He also cast opprobrium on other
political leaders for their "irresponsible" calls to boycott
the referendum.


4. (SBU) All the parties are in the process of assessing
their electoral performances and of taking the necessary
measures for improved scores in the upcoming local and
national elections. The election is noteworthy in that, for
the first time in Romania's post-communist history, the PSD
has been is dethroned as the largest single party, receiving
its lowest electoral vote share since 1990. PSD president
Mircea Geoana acknowledged that the party's target was
higher, but he spun the election results as being a
"relatively good" performance. PSD emeritus president Ion
Iliescu, on the contrary, blamed the party leadership for the
low score and called for an extraordinary party convention to
discuss how the PSD should respond to the election results.


5. (SBU) Basescu's Democratic Party garnered the largest
share of the votes as predicted. However, the PD's vote
share came up short of the 40 percent anticipated by some PD
leaders before the election. PD leaders have already
announced that the local PD organizations that
underperformed--e.g., brought in votes under the national
average--will be "held responsible". The PNL also claimed
victory, although the party fellshort of the objective of
obtaining a vote share close to what it received in the 2007
parliamentary election (20 pc). Prime Minister Tariceanu,s
position as party leader does not seem in danger, but
analysts predict a cabinet reshuffle in coming weeks to
replace some of the more controversial ministers, including
possibly the Foreign Minister, Interior Minister, and Justice
Minister.


6. (SBU) Despite bitter infighting, both the mainstream UDMR


and the radical Hungarian factions around Bishop Laszlo Tokes
appear to have crossed their respective electoral thresholds.
This is rather paradoxical, given the low turnout and the
shrinking ethnic Hungarian community in Romania. The good
scores can however be explained by the high level of
discipline in the Hungarian community and success of the UDMR
and Tokes' supporters in bringing out the ethnic Hungarian
vote in disproportionate numbers. The counties with the
largest population of ethnic Hungarians (Harghita and
Covasna) recorded high turnout levels (around 45 pc). With
its fate also riding on the election results, the breakaway
Liberal-Democratic Party (PLD) ran an aggressive election
campaign, and has succeeded in joining the winners' circle.


7. (SBU) The mood is completely different at the headquarters
of the two parliamentary parties which failed to cross the
electoral threshold. For the PC, the electoral score did not
come as a surprise, given the legal difficulties now being
faced by party head Dan Voiculescu and the party's low
standing in the polls. The Greater Romania Party, however,
responded to its electoral upset by blaming the USG for
stealing the election in cahoots with Basescu; PRM leader
Corneliu Vadim Tudor dramatically announced that he would
resign from the parliament. Vadim called on other PRM
parliamentarians to resign as well, but some of have
announced that they would not do so. It remains to be seen
whether any of them act on their word.


8. (C) Comment: As noted reftel, the low voter turnout was
not unexpected. With the exception of the drubbing received
by the right-extremist parties and the PC, every party could
with some justification claim a certain measure of victory.
The PD can now claim that it has overtaken the PSD as the
pre-eminent political party. The PSD can claim that, with 22
percent of the vote, it has arrested its downward slide and
is now on the mend. Similarly, the PNL stayed afloat despite
a recent series of scandals, underperforming ministers, and
the defection of party dissidents to form the PLD. The PLD
for its part now becomes a real party, having crossed the 5
percent threshold. Finally, the UDMR can claim rightly that
it has survived its near-death experience and remains above
the 5 percent mark, at least for now. What came somewhat as
a surprise was the public indifference to Basescu's
referendum vote, and the fact that it probably did not
increase the PD's vote share as expected. Lack of long
political coat-tails on Basescu's part, and the surprisingly
strong performance of rival pro-Basescu PLD will no doubt be
worrisome to many PD leaders. What remains to be seen is the
second-order fallout from Sunday's vote, including whether PM
Tariceanu now feels strong enough to continue leading a
hyper-minority government, or whether he will succumb to the
blandishments of the PSD in forming an oil-and-water
coalition. End Comment.
TAUBMAN