Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07BRUSSELS438
2007-02-09 11:06:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Brussels
Cable title:  

BELGIAN ELECTIONS: FAR RIGHT VLAAMS BELANG

Tags:  PREL PGOV BE 
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R 091106Z FEB 07 ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4317
INFO RUEHRL/AMEMBASSY BERLIN 1502
RUEHLE/AMEMBASSY LUXEMBOURG 8316
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 1804
RUEHTC/AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE 8367
UNCLAS BRUSSELS 000438 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV BE
SUBJECT: BELGIAN ELECTIONS: FAR RIGHT VLAAMS BELANG
EXPERIENCES FIRST CRISIS


UNCLAS BRUSSELS 000438

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV BE
SUBJECT: BELGIAN ELECTIONS: FAR RIGHT VLAAMS BELANG
EXPERIENCES FIRST CRISIS



1. (SBU) Fresh off a relatively disappointing showing in
the October 8 local Belgian elections, where the far
right Vlaams Belang (VB) failed to achieve a much sought
after breakthrough in the larger cities of Flanders, the
party finds itself struggling with an unprecedented
internal crisis, one which has prompted public
suggestions that the Flemish nationalist group has
peaked. The signs of trouble include an open challenge
to the party's top leadership, and demands for a "new
direction."


2. (SBU) The Vlaams Belang is a party tightly controlled
by a trio of experienced pols, Filip Dewinter, the
party's congenial public face in Antwerp and the Flemish
regional parliament, federal parliamentarian Gerolf
Annemans, the front man at the federal level, and party
president Frank Vanhecke, the party's chief strategist.
Prior to October's municipal elections these party
leaders attempted to broaden the party's base by forging
an alliance with "outsiders" like Senator Hugo Coveliers,
a Flemish Liberal (VLD) dissenter cast out of that party
for disagreeing too often and too publicly with its top
people, a list that included the Prime Minister. The
move failed, most notably in Antwerp, where the Vlaams
Belang failed to capture the mayor's seat, or to achieve
a breakthrough on the city council. VB also lost council
seats in Ghent, and failed to gain control of a single
local governing council.


3. (SBU) This failure sparked numerous public comments
that the far right party had peaked. Shocked by the
Antwerp defeat, some VB insiders turned on the party
leadership, whom they blamed for recruiting lackluster
candidates and internal disorganization. The defeat also
brought into the open a debate the leadership had managed
to avoid while the party seemed to be advancing toward an
ever higher position within the club of Flemish political
parties.


4. (SBU) One of the most important public critics has
been Flemish parliamentarian Marie-Rose Morel. Morel had
scored rather well in the election and sought to position
herself as a potential party leader. She urged the
leadership to adopt a softer party line that would
attract conservative voters otherwise scared off by the
party's image. Another opportunity for VB to broaden its
base and admit an outsider to its ranks came when,
immediately after the municipal polls, the VLD ejected
maverick senator Jean-Marie Dedecker. Like Coveliers,
Dedecker also had a history of irritating his party's
leaders. Dedecker, however, fully aware of his popularity,
asked too high a price from VB: i.e., a front and center
role in the upcoming general election.


5. (SBU) For the first time in the party's history its
leadership has publicly acknowledged the existence of
internal problems. At the same time, the trio of leaders
has chosen not to follow the "soft" line advocated by
Morel, but to "get back to basics." Party president
Vanhecke has announced that he, and no one else, will
head the party's Senate ticket for the next general
election, a move that has disappointed the popular Morel.
Steered by Dewinter, VB also has fallen back on what it
believes is its best chance for success in the federal
election - a direct appeal to anti-immigrant sentiment.


6. (SBU) Comment: VB's problems reflect the natural
tension that develops when a quasi-social movement
attempts to make the transition to mass political party.
Many of its current adherents want the party to play an
active role in government, and not just sit on the
sidelines. The party's inability to score a beakthrough
during the municipal polls will exacerbate this point of
friction. That said, the VB still has a good chance to
gain some ground in the upcoming general elections. On
the assumption that the party's main issues have more
resonance at the federal level, ome observers believe VB
could garner at last 25 percent of the vote, slightly
more thn the 24 percent of the Flemish vote won in the
2004 regional elections. A strong showing would indicate
significant support for its platform within Belgium, and
could set VB up as the premiere opposition party.
However, another disappointing result is certain to cause
an even more intense internal crisis, weakening the far
right's ability to influence any number of debates in the
coming months.
IMBRIE