DUTCH AND CYPRIOTS LOUDEST NAY-SAYERS ON KOSOVO AT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 003481

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE ALSO FOR EUR/ERA, EUR/SCE; NSC FOR AINSLEY, BRAUN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/11/2017
TAGS: PREL EAID KV EUN
SUBJECT: DUTCH AND CYPRIOTS LOUDEST NAY-SAYERS ON KOSOVO AT
DEC. 10 GAERC; SUMMIT DRAFT STATEMENT NOW IN CAPITALS


Classified By: Political M/C Laurence Wohlers for reason 1.5 (b/d).

SUMMARY
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1. (C) According to numerous sources, the Dec 10 GAERC
discussions on Kosovo were both exhaustive and exhausting,
with virtually every FonMin insisting on speaking. As a
result, the four-hour marathon crowded out other important
issues (including Iran). In the naysayer camp, the Cypriots
continued to "read the Russian talking points", while the
Dutch tried, apparently unsuccessfully, to build concern
about the "thin legal basis of 1244" for moving forward.
Nevertheless, sources were upbeat that no member state had
succeeded in rallying a coalition for its specific concern
and, as a result, the draft conclusions for the Dec 14 EU
Council had emerged unchanged. Dutch permrep contacts told
us that, having failed to win support at the GAERC, the Dutch
government was reviewing its options but now understood that
it was isolated on its concerns. European Council language
likely will note that the EU is ready "to assist Kosovo on
its path toward sustainable stability, including by
intensifying its preparations for an ESDP mission..." but may
not refer specifically to potential candidate status for
Serbia and to Kosovo's European perspective, given Dutch
sensitivities. (See para six below for an informal version
of the draft text.) The text will certainly still be the
subject of discussion between capitals this week, but the
formal Brussels debate appears over. It is not clear if the
text will again be debated by the heads of state on Dec 14:
UK and other permrep contacts believe that leaders may
choose to adopt it with little or no discussion. End Summary

'SENSE OF INEVITABILITY," .. BUT ...
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2. (C) Stefan Lehne, Council Secretariat for the W. Balkans,
told us December 11 that the almost four-hour restricted FMs'
lunch discussion on Kosovo resulted in "nothing particularly
fascinating." Lehne, who had received a readout from EU
PolDir Robert Cooper, said most FMs sensed the
"inevitability" of moving forward on Kosovo. Still, there
was the "usual unhappiness among the usual suspects." While
no FM called for new negotiations between Belgrade and
Pristina, the Cypriots "were pretty tough" and The
Netherlands insisted on identifying a sound legal basis
before moving forward. UK Deputy PSC Ambassador Lapsley told
Pol M/C that the Cypriots had "delivered the Russian talking
points," but in the end Nicosia most likely will not block
consensus.


3. (C) German Mission W. Balkans expert Andrea Berdesinski
said the GAERC "had gone okay," stressing that no FM had
called into question the Troika's conclusions that
negotiations were exhausted. Berdesinski told us that "fewer
and fewer countries are hesitating on moving forward,"
particularly regarding the ESDP Mission. Spain and Slovakia
made helpful interventions on the ESDP Mission, with Spain
and Romania noting the need to move forward quickly (with the
Romanians noting their planned large contribution of police
to the mission). Berdesinski said Germany and most member
states expect Cyprus eventually to capitulate. More
worrisome to Berlin is Dutch insistence on identifying a
"sound legal basis" to move forward on Kosovo.


4. (C) Dutch PSC Ambassador Milders told Pol M/C December 11
that the Dutch FM wanted to make clear the Hague's concerns
that UNSCR 1244 is a "thin" legal basis for launching an ESDP
mission in an "unfriendly environment." Milders said the
Dutch had expected some other member states to share Dutch
concerns about the legal basis. When no other FM did so, the
Dutch found themselves isolated. Milders explained to us
that his government was seeking some ammunition, given that
it would have to obtain parliamentary approval for the
planned participation of 50 Dutch men and women in the
mission. He also noted that the Dutch favor watering down
the proposed European Council language on Serbia's potential
candidate status (given its lack of full cooperation with the
ICTY) and on Kosovo's European vocation. Our German contact
confirmed this, noting that most member states could live
with a more general reference to the European vocation of the
region. She added that most member states favor shifting the
planned special January GAERC and recognition calendar
scenario to after the Serb presidential elections if, indeed,
the two rounds are held as expected January 20 and February 3
respectively.

NEXT STEPS: THE EUROPEAN COUNCIL DEC. 14
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5. (C/NF) According to our contacts, a draft text on Kosovo
is now circulating in capitals and wll be coordinated by the
Portuguese Presidencyfor issuance by Portuguese PM Socrates
at the European Council in Brussels December 14. Portuguese
Deputy Special Envoy for the W. Balkans Jose Pedro Viera told
us the main message -- that the EU stands ready to assume its
responsibilities in Kosovo -- remains unchanged for the time
being. Given the lack of strong leadership from the
Portuguese Presidency on Kosovo over the past several months,
and the conscious need to preserve unity among the 27, we
cannot discount any last-minute problems -- such as the one
posed by the Dutch. That said, even Solana was "encouraged"
by the GAERC, particularly by the apparent readiness of many
member states to launch the ESDP Mission, a member of his
private office told us.


6. (SBU) Another member state PSC ambassador provided us the
pertinent language currently circulating:

The EU notes the UNSC will address Kosovo in December and
underscored that the EU stands ready to play a leading role
in strengthening stability in the region and in implementing
a settlement defining Kosovo's future status and states
further the EU's readiness to assist Kosovo on the path
toward sustainable stability, including by intensifying its
preparations for an ESDP Mission and for a contribution to an
ICO as part of an international presence. The EU will also
be ready to assist in the economic and political development
(presumably of Kosovo specifically or of the region) through
a European perspective.

MURRAY
.