EU EXPECTATIONS FOR EU-AFRICA SUMMIT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 003470

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/07/2017
TAGS: PREL EAID AF EU EUN
SUBJECT: EU EXPECTATIONS FOR EU-AFRICA SUMMIT

Classified By: Acting DepPolCouns V. Carver for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)
.

Summary
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1. (C) The EU will consider that fact that the EU-Africa
Summit takes place in Lisbon Dec. 8-9 a success in and of
itself, particularly if President Mugabe does not succeed in
running away with every headline from the summit. Officials
in Brussels do not expect breakthroughs or even much
substantive discussions on critical issues, such as Darfur,
Somalia, and the Ethiopia-Eritrea border conflict, although
bilateral discussions on those issues will take place on the
margins. Mugabe remains the summit wild card, and, as of
Dec. 6, the EU was still working out its strategy on dealing
with him. EU officials say they are leaning toward having
the Dutch raise Mugabe's human rights and governance record,
letting Mugabe respond, and then having High Rep. Solana
address it again. With more than 50 heads of state from
Africa and the EU expected, the large plenaries will allow
each delegation to give only brief statements, which are
expected to be positive and rather general. Summit
participants are expected to issue a short Political
Declaration and give final approval to the EU-Africa Joint
Strategy, which differs little from the EU-Afric Strategy
approved by the EU in 2005. One important change is that the
EU will begin addressing Africa as a whole, using the African
Union as the main focal point for negotiations, instead of
dealing with individual African states, as the EU
historically has done. End Summary.

The Mugabe Factor
--------------


2. (C) After a seven-year gap since the last EU-Africa
Summit, EU and Member State officials say the most important
aspect of the summit is simply that it takes place. With
intervening efforts at summit organization derailed over the
contentious issue of whether to invite Mugabe, Portugal
decided early in its EU Presidency that it was going to
invite every African head of state, Mugabe included.
Portugal secured him a waiver from the EU travel ban placed
on most top Zimbabwean officials under an allowed exemption
for EU conferences that addressed political issues. So far,
only the UK plans not to send its PM in protest. But
contacts at the Dutch and German Permanent Representations
said this week they are nervous that Portugal keeps
postponing a decision on how to deal with Mugabe during the
Summit. With only hours to go, the EU had not decided who
will bring up Mugabe's democracy and human rights record and
when.


3. (C) If the subject is not raised directly with Mugabe
during the Summit, EU Member States will face public
criticism from many of their constituents as well as human
rights groups and NGOs. A Dutch diplomat said many EU Member
States hoped that either Portugal or High Representative
Javier Solana would speak to Mugabe on behalf of the EU
during the summit, but Portugal appeared unwilling to take on
that role. The timing of the intervention is also tricky.
Portugal does not want to address Mugabe in the morning of
Dec. 8 for fear that the "Mugabe issue" will overtake the
rest of the agenda. On the other hand, waiting until later
in the summit runs the risk that Mugabe and his delegation
will decide to leave before then. Key contacts in the
Council Secretariat said late Dec. 6 that the current
thinking was to address this in the afternoon session
December 8. The strategy they were leaning toward was to
have the Dutch delegation raise Mugabe's human rights and
governance record, which was expected to provoke an outraged
response from Mugabe. Then Solana would step in as a calm
and elder statesman to make a few pointed comments about the
EU's expectations for Zimbabwe.

Joint EU-Africa Strategy
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4. (SBU) The key substantive aspect of the summit will be
the Joint EU-Africa Strategy, drafted after many months of
consultations between the EU and African states. It reads
very much like the EU-Africa Strategy adopted by the EU in
2005 with the important difference that it calls on the EU to
deal with Africa as a whole, not on a state-by-state basis as
it has in the past. The key interlocutor will be the African
Union, and the EU is about to establish a new EU Delegation
to the AU in Addis Ababa. It is one of the EU's concrete
deliverables for the summit, and both the Council and
Commission this week approved the appointment of Koen
Vervaeke to head the delegation. Vervaeke has been Solana's
key advisor on Africa as the head of the Council Secretariat

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Africa Unit since 2003. He also has good relations with
Commissioner Louis Michel, a fellow Belgian. He will report
to both Solana and Michel and will have the title of both EU
Special Representative and Head of the EC Delegation to the
AU, a joining of Commission and Council functions (a
harbinger of things to come, as combining such Commission and
Council functions is envisioned institutionally in the new
EU Reform Treaty).

Partnership of Equals?
--------------


5. (C) In addition to the Mugabe issue, EU officials are
concerned that African objections about the current Economic
Partnership Agreements (EPAs) being negotiated between the EU
and the African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) countries could
cast a shadow over the summit. Because of a WTO ruling, the
EU must end preferential trade agreements with the ACP
countries as of Jan. 1, and many African countries say it
will disadvantage them in the global marketplace. Many
African officials have told the EU they believe the new
agreements do not support the spirit of the new Joint
Strategy and represent instead the EU imposing something on
Africa that it does not want. Only a handful of African
states have signed EPAs with the EU, taking away another
hoped-for summit deliverable for the EU.


6. (C) Returning to the role of the AU, several Member State
contacts say they have misgivings about the reality treating
the AU as an equal partner, given the AU's lack of capacity
and the unwillingness of African states to cede competence to
the AU on substantive issues. But Commissioner Michel spoke
passionately at a Brussels think tank event Nov. 30 about the
need for Europe to move away from its donor-recipient
relationship with Africa to one of equal partnership. He
characterized the U.S. strategy toward Africa as one centered
on security and oil concerns, and noted that China, India,
and Brazil, among others, also had clear strategies toward
Africa whereas Europe has not had a well-defined Africa
strategy until now.

Comment
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7. (C) In sum, EU and Member State officials are approaching
the summit seriously and believe Portugal is the right
country at the right time to hold such a gathering of EU and
African delegations. There is great concern about
orchestrating the intervention with Mugabe and some concern
over the EPA issue, but, in general, the summit is expected
to be largely a chance for the EU and AU to express their
mutual concerns about specific issues as well as to review a
future roadmap for cooperation. While the Portuguese
Presidency will point to this summit as one of its crowning
achievements, we view such a claim as hyperbole.
GRAY
.