Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07BRUSSELS3466
2007-12-06 18:36:00
CONFIDENTIAL
USEU Brussels
Cable title:  

FRIED TO PSC: TIME TO MOVE ON KOSOVO AND

Tags:  PREL BK GG KV SR EUN 
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VZCZCXRO5585
PP RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHBS #3466/01 3401836
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 061836Z DEC 07
FM USEU BRUSSELS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 003466 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/06/2017
TAGS: PREL BK GG KV SR EUN
SUBJECT: FRIED TO PSC: TIME TO MOVE ON KOSOVO AND
STRATEGIZE ON BOSNIA


Classified By: Acting DepPolCouns V. Carver for reasons 1.5 (b/d).

SUMMARY
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 003466

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/06/2017
TAGS: PREL BK GG KV SR EUN
SUBJECT: FRIED TO PSC: TIME TO MOVE ON KOSOVO AND
STRATEGIZE ON BOSNIA


Classified By: Acting DepPolCouns V. Carver for reasons 1.5 (b/d).

SUMMARY
- - - - -


1. (C) EUR A/S Fried told the EU's Political and Security
Committee (PSC) ambassadors December 6 that the EU must move
forward on Kosovo and not be subject to Serbian electoral
manipulation. He briefed on his talks in BiH, noted the
recent avoidance of a "train-wreck," and emphasized the need
to strategize on offering BiH more carrots but also
identifying more sticks if needed. A/S Fried stressed how
much the U.S. had offered on CFE, in part due to Georgian and
Moldovan flexibility. Several PSC ambassadors underscored
the need for EU unity on Kosovo, although the Swedish,
Hungarian, and Greek ambassadors expressed standard concerns
about the regional impact of a Kosovo declaration of
independence and the need for UN involvement. A/S Fried's
meeting with Council Secretariat PolDir Cooper reported
septel. End summary

BiH: Avoided Train-Wreck, Time to Strategize
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2. (C) A/S Fried briefed on his December 4-5 talks with BiH
leaders. He observed that the IC had avoided a "train-
wreck" this time, but needed to strategize on providing more
carrots and identifying more potential sticks when underlying
problems resurface. He noted that Dodik and Silajdzic had
stepped back in part because of the EU's creative offer to
initial the SAA and their own concern that the IC would move
against them. Using more carrots, including specifying what
BiH leaders must do to move further on the path to Europe,
will help. Likewise, the IC must be prepared to deploy
sticks if necessary, e.g., sanctions and targetted visa bans.
A/S Fried reported on Dodik's commitment to be helpful on
Kosovo, including stating publicly that the RS would not hold
a referendum on secession. Dodik also promised to urge
Kosovo Serbs to remain in Kosovo.


3. (C) The Slovenian Ambassador (incoming Presidency) asked
about extending the OHR next year; Fried said he envisioned
an extension. The German Ambassador stressed the need to
support Lajcak and for the willingness to exert pressure on

BiH leaders if necessary. Sweden argued for increased local
ownership. Greece expressed appreciation for A/S Fried's
report on his talks and noted that "regional stability is the
key."


Kosovo: United in Action, Not in Paralysis
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4. (C) A/S Fried praised the Troika process, particularly
Ischinger's role, and noted that we have consulted the
Europeans every step of the way. A declaration of
independence from Pristina will be neither unilateral nor the
result of U.S. action. Rather, it will have been carefully
coordinated, including with the EU. A/S Fried stressed that
the time for negotiations is over, as agreed by te Secretary
and her EU counterparts months ag. An unresolved final
status for Kosovo will only deteriorate with time. A/S Fried
called for "unity in action, rather than in paralysis," in
resolving final status over the coming weeks, not months.
While we must recognize that Moscow will make the process as
difficult as possible, the EU even more than the U.S. will
bear responsibility for any consequences if status is not
resolved soon, he added. He cautioned against allowing the
time-frame to slip because of Serbian electoral calendar
machinations.


5. (C) The Irish PSC Ambassador asked how the UNSC debate
would proceed. The German PSC Ambassador stressed the need
for the EU to remain united (a sentiment echoed by several
other ambassadors, with the Hungarian rep noting the need for
unity within NATO as well). The Hungarian Ambassador also
asked about the chances UNSYG Ban would issue a letter
inviting the EU to launch its ESDP Mission in Kosovo; A/S
Fried cautioned against expecting miracles (e.g., a UNSCR on
Kosovo) in New York and noted that he could not speak on
behalf of UN SYG Ban. The Swede stressed the UN process and,
reiterating FM Bildt's presentation at the last GAERC, said
the EU's responsibility is not just for Kosovo and called for
a "broader, regional outlook" on the Western Balkans in order
to be prepared for "whatever comes." The Belgian Ambassador
noted that several delegations would have a "preventive" role
in the UNSC given Russia's stance. He asked how to deal with
the OSCE Mission's tasks in Kosovo should it be forced to
close. The Portuguese Ambassador/EU Presidency Rep, noted
only that the EU is providing "maximum time" to leaders and
ministers next week to discuss the way forward on Kosovo.

BRUSSELS 00003466 002 OF 002



CFE: U.S. PROVIDED CONSIDERABLE COMPROMISES
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6. (C) A/S Fried noted appreciation for European support at
the OSCE ministerial discussion of CFE. Despite generous
offers, Russia insisted on proceeding with ratification of
the A/CFE Treaty while simultaneously demanding agreement in
advance to its treaty revisions. Moscow wanted flank limits
on its own troops lifted while maintaining such limits on
others'. A/S Fried said Moscow will almost certainly suspend
the treaty December 12 and others need to be prepared to
respond accordingly. Turning to next week's MD talks in
Budapest, A/S Fried observed that U.S. proposals included
cooperation with Russia on an MD architecture which Russia
could help design. It is unfortunate that Russia appears
unable to take "yes" for an answer. Sweden asked about
discussions with Moldova and Georgia; A/S Fried replied that
both countries had demonstrated flexibility that would have
allowed the adapted treaty to be ratified even while Russian
peacekeepers remained for a time. Latvia noted that, on
Russia, "not all is doom and gloom," given progress on the
Russian-Latvian border demarcation. A/S Fried concluded that
the U.S. will continue to consult with its NATO allies on
next steps. The West should not act as if a Russian
suspension of CFE is a non-event.

Post-Kosovo Independence and Abkhazia
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7. (C) A/S Fried said that Russia was not necessarily going
to recognize Abkhazia as independent following Kosovo
independence. To do so would be dangerous and would open up
the territorial settlement of 1991 following the collapse of
the Soviet Union. That said, the IC should be prepared to
reject such a recognition should Moscow so move. A strong
and united western position would help demonstrate to
President Saakashvili that he is not isolated and might help
prevent unfortunate moves by Tbilisi.


8. (U) A/S Fried has cleared this message.
GRAY
.