SCENESETTER FOR THE SECRETARY'S DECEMBER 6 MEETING

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRUSSELS 003453

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
NOFORN

FOR THE SECRETARY FROM AMBASSADOR SAM FOX

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/03/2012
TAGS: PREL PGOV BE US
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR THE SECRETARY'S DECEMBER 6 MEETING
WITH BELGIAN FM DE GUCHT

Classified By: Ambassador Sam Fox, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: For the foreseeable future, the continuing
Belgian government formation crisis gives us no alternative
to working closely with the current caretaker government in
which Karel De Gucht serves as Foreign Minister. Generally
speaking, this is good news since the current government
remains willing to interpret its mandate in an expansive
way and to continue a broad policy of cooperation with
the USG at the UNSC, in the Balkans, Africa, and the
Middle East. Your visit offers a chance to continue
pushing Belgium to do more in Afghanistan and on similar
issues where there is no strongly supportive public
consensus.
Such pressure will help us increase the caretaker government's
willingness to take the political risks we need them to take.

As always, you should anticipate keen interest in our
approach
to African issues. De Gucht's other interests include the
Annapolis
conference, Iran, and Kosovo. End summary.

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Government Crisis continues, but so does Caretaker Government
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2. (SBU) The December 1 collapse of Flemish Christian
Democrat
Yves Leterme's 176-day attempt to cobble together a
parliamentary
majority has injected an unwelcome new complication into
Belgium's
already fractious political scene. While it is certain that
the
country will not split apart anytime soon, it is not clear
exactly
who King Albert will ask to pick up the job of trying to
fashion a
new government. That said, he has asked caretaker Prime
Minister
Guy Verhofstadt to "seek ways out of the current impasse" and
to
expand the mandate of his government to cover several urgent
items
including next year's budget, and certain national security
matters.


3. (SBU) The crisis in the formation process underscores an
often
overlooked fact that has become important over the past few
months.
Verhofstadt's government, in which Karel De Gucht continues
to
serve as Foreign Minister, already has grown increasingly
bold
in interpreting just what it means to handle "current"
affairs,
the official remit of a Belgian caretaker regime. Since
September,
the Belgian government in fact has launched several critical
new
initiatives, a list that notably includes the decision to
send a
contingent of troops to Chad, where they will participate in
the
EU's refugee protection mission, and to dispatch a large
trade
contingent to the Congo.

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Continued Support for Key USG Policies, but need to push for
more help in Afghanistan, and for EU-specific Iran sanctions
-------------- --------------


4. (C) Whatever happens in the government formation talks,
there
is a good chance De Gucht will stay in his role at the Foreign
Ministry; the other likely candidate for that job is current
Finance Minister Reynders, who would probably follow a
similar
policy line. The practical effect of this can only be
positive
for us. A foreign ministry led by either man means a
continuation
of his policy of strengthening ties with the U.S., following
a
roughly parallel course to ours in the Security Council, and
of

backing internatonal efforts to restrain Iran.


5. (C) The cartaker government is reluctant to act
decisivey
in situations where there is no broad publi consensus.
Afghanistan is a case in point. Arguing that a formal
decision is a matter for the next government, the caretaker
governmet is reluctant to extend the mission of the trops
now managig Kabul International Airport byond March 2008.
(We have heard informally that the Belgians are planning to
stay until October 1, however.) The caretaker regime
absolutely refuses to loosen Belgium's restrictive
national caveats, or to consider issues like leading
an Afghan PRT or OMLT, or to send F-16s. In a similar
vein, the Belgians have waffled on the issue of backing
strong EU-specific sanctions on Iran, citing the issue
as something outside its mandate.


6. (C) Outside pressure on issues like Afghanistan and
EU-specific sanctions will increase De Gucht's interest
in expanding the boundaries of what a caretaker regime
should undertake. By engaging De Gucht actively, we
provide a strong counterweight to Socialists in Parliament
who oppose a more flexible military role in Afghanistan.
On Iran, De Gucht will be listening to advice from the
business elements supporting his own party, the Flemish
Liberals. It is important to remind him how important
and effective EU-specific sanctions can be in contributing
to a positive solution in Iran.

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What De Gucht Wants
--------------


7. (U) The fact of the meeting is the key issue for De Gucht.

He wants to demonstrate that Belgium is still a player on
the international stage, whatever might or might not be
happening on the domestic scene. With the Belgian public's
confidence in the country's political class ebbing, it is
all the more important to demonstrate that the U.S. continues
to view Belgium as a trusted and important partner. He also
will be keenly interested in learning more about your
participation in the Great Lakes summit in Africa, and
about Darfur. (We are asking for a separate appointment
for Jendayi Frazer with the Belgian experts on Africa.)
You can expect him to ask you about the Middle East meetings
launched in Annapolis, the situation in Kosovo, and Iran FOX
.