Expanded Role for Caretaker Prime Minister the

UNCLAS BRUSSELS 003438

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINR BE
SUBJECT: Expanded Role for Caretaker Prime Minister the
Likely Result of Collapse in Effort to Form Next Belgian
Government


1. The King has resumed his consultations following the
collapse of Flemish Christian Democrat Yves Leterme's six-
month government formation attempt. He was closeted with
Leterme at midday on December 3, having started his session
almost two hours earlier. Caretaker Prime Minister Guy
Verhofstadt (Open VLD - Flemish Liberals) was called to the
Royal Palace on Saturday and again today, fueling
speculation about a pivotal role for Verhofstadt during the
coming weeks and months.


2. Verhofstadt's involvement suggests that his
Liberal/Socialist caretaker government would be tasked with
drafting and implementing the 2008 budget. Liberals and
Socialists have no majority in Parliament, but they would
seek support on the other benches to adopt and implement,
not only the budget, but also a wider range of law and
order, and socio-economic measures deemed necessary for the
functioning of the country. It is unclear yet if this new
arrangement would extend to foreign policy matters.


3. Meanwhile Verhofstadt would seek to get the
Constitutional Convention off the ground. This issue,
which is partly reponsible for torpedoing Leterme's
formation wrk, would be composed of majority and
opposition politicians. Its job would be to devise a
consensus on redefining the responsibilities of the federal
and regional governments. The widely divergent opinions
between hardliners on the Flemish and francophone side of
the language border made it necessary for Leterme to
abandon his attempt to form a government.


4. The story of how Laterme's formation attempt came to a
dramatic end has become increasingly clear since he
announced its end on December 1. The key event was a
decision by CDH (francophone Christian Democrats) party
president Joelle Milquet to say "no" at least one of three
ultimatums issued by Leterme to four potential coalition
partners (Flemish and francophone Christian Democrats and
Liberals). He received positive answers from all the
parties save the CDH. Milquet refused to continue the
talks, arguing that Leterme had changed an earlier version
an institutional blueprint to satisfy his Flemish
nationalist allies in the New Flemish Alliance (N-VA).
(Comment: Leterme thinks he was done ill by Milquet, who
had argued against any institutional reforms since the
talks began in July. End Comment.)


5. The collapse of the government formation talks is a
terrible personal setback for Leterme, one that will
diminish his political weight and potential. But CD&V
(Flemish Christian Democrat) heavyweights tried to put on a
bright face, saying that Leterme remained their leader,
adding that the party would only join a future government
coalition that he directed. The two Liberal parties blamed
the Flemish Christian Democrats and the N-VA for the
failure, but remained available to form a coalition
government with an institutional reform agenda.


6. Speculation about what happens next in terms of the next
government has taken many forms. One idea that received
considerable play over the weekend involved the various
Socialist and Green parties. So far not involved in the
government formation talks, leaders of both groups sent out
mixed signals during the weekend. The francophone Greens
(Ecolo) announced that they would not take up the place
left vacant by the CDH to salvage the government formation.
Francophone Socialist Party (PS) leader Elio Di Rupo said
that the country needed a "grand coalition" capable of
handling the socio-economic and institutional issues.
(Note: the current grouping of three parties, Flemish and
francophone Liberals, and the CD&V/N-VA alliance is about
five seats short of a majority, hence the need to find a
new partner.)
FOX