EU: EXPECT POSITIVE STATEMENT ON KOSOVO AT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 003430

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STATE ALSO FOR EUR/ERA, EUR/SCE, EUR/ACE
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E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/30/2017
TAGS: PREL EAID ZL EUN
SUBJECT: EU: EXPECT POSITIVE STATEMENT ON KOSOVO AT
DECEMBER 14 SUMMIT

REF: BRUSSELS 3382

Classified By: Acting DepPolCouns V. Carver for reasons 1.5 (B/D).

SUMMARY
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1. (C/NF) Several missions have told us that the Political
and Security Committee's (PSC) November 29 review of Kosovo
was more detailed than previous discussions. While the
meeting took no decisions, PSC ambassadors likely will
recommend that the December 10 GAERC note that the Troika
process has concluded and that efforts to find a negotiated
solution have been exhausted. EU leaders would then issue a
statement at their December 14 European Council (summit)
noting that the EU will assume its responsibilities in
Kosovo. Our contacts noted the likelihood of a special GAERC
one or two days after a UDI, with the formal launching of the
ESDP mission possibly at the January 28 GAERC. Lithuania
reportedly pushed in PSC discussions for a strong public
marker at the EU Council that the 27 were united to oppose
any efforts to use Kosovo as an excuse to modify security
arrangements elsewhere in Europe, notably Moldova. A/S
Fried's visit December 6 offers an opportunity to strengthen
the EU's backbone to take the necessary decisions in the
weeks ahead. End summary

DISCUSSION MOVES TO TIME-FRAME
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2. (C) UK PSC Ambassador King, Lithuanian PSC Ambassador
Jankauskas, Slovak Mission Balkans expert Juaisova, and Greek
Balkans expert Athamassiadou (protect all) told us November
29-30 that the PSC had a lengthy discussion November 29 on
Kosovo. According to Juaisova, given the Troika's communique
that noted its failure to find a negotiated solution, most
member states want to move forward on planning for a UDI.
While no decisions have yet been reached, Juaisova said the
likeliest scenario would be: week of December 3 Ischinger
may brief PSC; Dec. 10 GAERC simply takes note of troika's
efforts and that the CG will present the troika report that
same day; Dec. 14 European Council issues a statement noting
that the EU is ready to assume its responsibilities regarding
Kosovo while at the same time underscoring the European
perspective for Serbia.


3. (C/NF) Our contacts noted that the EU would almost
certainly hold a special GAERC coming one or two days after a
UDI -- characterized by Juaisova as "now expected sometime in
January," with FMs adopting the "Montenegrin model" of taking
note of the UDI. Juaisova said several member states want
assurances, possibly included in the Kosovo constitution,
that various "Ahtisaari principles" are legally paramount in
Kosovo, with any Kosovo legislation contravening those
principles struck down. (Note: She did not explain how this
would be accomplished, but other EU contacts note that this
would be an ICR responsibility.) A "critical mass" (but
Juaisova would not speculate on exact numbers, and she noted
that only her PM knows when Slovakia would recognize) of
member states would recognize before the GAERC on January 28.
She noted that there is still a divide among member states
over when best to formally launch the ESDP Mission; some
member states want to do so at the special GAERC, others want
to wait a few additional weeks to allow recruitment and
procurement to continue behind-the-scenes, so as to have even
more people and equipment on the ground when the mission is
formally launched. Juaisova noted that ICR-designate Pieter
Feith shares this view.

KEEPING SERBIA ON TRACK
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4. (C/NF) Juaisova and Athamassiadou explained that the
French, supported by several member states (undoubtedly
including the incoming Slovene presidency) are pushing for
speedy discussions as early as January on visa liberalization
"for the region, but aimed initially at Serbia." Signing an
SAA with Belgrade is also not off the table. According to
Juaisova, some member states believe that should Belgium form
a new government in time and replace its current FM, the
Belgians will be more flexible on signing an SAA with
Belgrade, with an isolated Netherlands more susceptible to
pressure to agree, even without Mladic arrested. Juaisova
added that with Del Ponte's term expiring at the end of the
year, Dutch influence on the incoming Chief Prosecutor may be
less than what The Hague presumably had with Del Ponte.
Athamassiadou said that the EU could not wait for "several
months" without doing something both concrete (visa

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facilitation and liberalization) and symbolic (signing an
SAA) for Serbs. She agreed that a new Belgian government
might join the emerging consensus favoring these steps for
Belgrade. Athamassiadou was not as optimistic as Juaisova
about the Dutch supporting this absent Mladic's arrest.

COMMENT: NEED FOR EU UNITY INCREASINGLY ISOLATING ANTI-ESDP
COUNTRIES, BUT...
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5. (C/NF) The EU's continued insistence on unity dragged out
the final status process through much of the last several
months, as various member states insisted on the need for a
UNSCR and then for continued negotiations. Now the tide
appears to be working in our favor, with the "usual suspect"
holdouts jumping, however unenthusiastically, on the
bandwagon of reality. In fact, only Romania and Cyprus are
now regularly cited as holdouts, and the Romanian PSC
ambassador told us this week that, for all its concerns about
not isolating Serbia, Romania would not block EU consensus.
Moreover, both will be subject to increasing pressure from
other member states. Also on the positive side of the
ledger, a PSC contact told us that, at a Nov 29 PSC
discussion on the legal basis for an ESDP mission, only the
Cypriots appeared to insist that the EU needed an explicit
request from the UNSYG before it could launch. The Nov 29
PSC discussion of the press line for the EU Council was also
reportedly positive. Lithuanian sources told us that they
had found the Portuguese "very solid," but Vilnius is still
pushing to include a clear statement that the 27 were united
in insisting that Kosovo must not be used as an excuse to
change the security status quo elsewhere in Europe, meaning
Moldova and Georgia.


6. (C/NF) That said, various Brussels contacts concede that
many member states would still dearly love to have a formal
UN blessing, and several have made clear that if the 27 need
"more time" to reach consensus, the Kosovars will just have
to wait. In that context, UK permrep sources noted that
Moscow's dangling the possibility of a UNSCR authorizing the
ESDP Mission could be very attractive to many legal
departments in the MFAs and chancelleries of member states,
and would provide ready justification for some for a delay in
final status determination.


7. (C/NF) A/S Fried's visit December 6 offers an opportunity
to encourage the Euros to continue their planning on meeting
the challenge of Kosovo independence and the launching of the
ESDP Mission. We should praise the EU's role as personified
by Ischinger in the troika's exhaustive efforts to find a
negotiated solution. We should once again agree on the need
to reach out to moderate leaders and civic society in
Belgrade (though the 27 seem at a loss as to how to do that,
given that the EU has no mechanisms to coordinate and
implement such a policy). The Euros will also want to be
reassured that the U.S. will remain committed to the region,
including through KFOR and our significant contribution of
personnel to the ESDP Mission. Now that the EU bandwagon
finally appears on the right track, we will need to continue
to voice our support -- and our concerns.
MURRAY
.